About the best news in today's long-delayed report on the job market from the Bureau of Labor Statistics comes in this observation: the "federal government continued to lose jobs." Even then, though, the long-sought reductions in the bureaucracy were likely temporary due to the Schumer Shutdown.
The US did gain 64,000 jobs in the official numbers from November, about twice the prediction from the ADP report two weeks earlier. However, the economy lost over 100,000 in October due to the impact of the shutdown, and November's unemployment rate ticked up to its highest level since the pandemic:
Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in November (+64,000) and has shown little net change since April, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. In November, the unemployment rate, at 4.6 percent, was little changed from September. Employment rose in health care and construction in November, while federal government continued to lose jobs. ...
In November, both the labor force participation rate (62.5 percent) and the employment-population ratio (59.6 percent) were little changed from September. These measures showed little or no change over the year. (See table A-1.)
The number of people employed part time for economic reasons was 5.5 million in November, an increase of 909,000 from September. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. (See table A-8.)
Again, interestingly, the employment ratios have remained stable throughout the year, even though the average increase in the last six months is well below maintenance levels for population increases. It's also remarkable considering the significant exodus of federal jobs since Donald Trump took office:
Federal government employment continued to decrease in November (-6,000). This follows a sharp decline of 162,000 in October, as some federal employees who accepted a deferred resignation offer came off federal payrolls. Federal government employment is down by 271,000 since reaching a peak in January. (Federal employees on furlough during the government shutdown were counted as employed in the establishment survey because they received pay, even if later than usual, for the pay period that included the 12th of the month. Employees on paid leave or receiving ongoing severance pay are counted as employed in the establishment survey.)
That's an average debit of 25,000 jobs every month. The DOGE effort and other Trump policies intended to cut deeply into the federal government, and seems to be succeeding at "draining the swamp" in its first year. That certainly has some impact on overall job-creation numbers, but even accounting for that, overall job creation is stagnant at best. Wage growth is still positive, but may be slowing down too:
In November, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 5 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $36.86. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 3.5 percent. In November, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 11 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $31.76. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)
That tends to suggest that some of this apparent stagnation may really be churn, as foreign workers exit and domestic workers take their places. An estimate from DHS last week claims that they have deported over 600,000 illegal aliens and that almost two million more have self-deported:
The U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced historic progress in securing the homeland, highlighting a year of record-breaking achievement of more than 2.5 million illegal aliens leaving the U.S.
Since January 20, 2025, DHS enforcement operations have resulted in more than 605,000 deportations. DHS has prioritized removing the worst of the worst criminal illegal aliens as part of the Trump Administration’s efforts to return law and order to the United States.
Additionally, thanks to the comprehensive efforts of DHS law enforcement, 1.9 million illegal aliens have voluntarily self-deported since January 2025. We encourage all illegal aliens to use the CBP Home app to get a free flight home for Christmas and $1,000.
That could explain the wage growth during a stagnant period. The Wall Street Journal has another explanation, however, although they do acknowledge the impact of the migrant outflow:
Tuesday’s report offers new clues about a job market that has cooled significantly in recent months. Rising inflation and tariff uncertainty have prevented companies from expanding their workforces. But the Trump administration’s policies targeting immigrants have also curbed the number of job seekers. That has meant that labor demand hasn’t had to grow as quickly to prevent rising unemployment.
Overall, economists describe the current labor market as a low-fire, low-hire environment. Most companies aren’t laying off workers en masse. But they also aren’t willing to hire too many new workers—in part because they believe that a lot of those tasks can be filled by artificial intelligence. Many companies that typically rush to hire temp workers at this time of year are sitting tight.
The overall impression is that this could be a lot worse. Politically speaking, though, it needs to get a lot better for Trump and the GOP before the midterm cycle proceeds much farther. Trump needs some solid wins on the data for his upcoming barnstorming tour on the economy, and thus far, those have eluded him. Perhaps the Fed will rethink its incremental approach to accelerating investment in its January meeting and provide a rate cut that will incentivize job-creating growth. That may be the only way to get a real win on jobs in the near term.
Editor’s Note: The Democrat Party has never been less popular as voters reject its globalist agenda.
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