Who could have guessed? Oh ... only everyone who wasn't born yesterday.
Donald Trump's ceasefire deal in Gaza hasn't yet gotten out of Phase 1. The living hostages have all returned to Israel, but only half of the deceased hostages' remains have been returned. Phase 2 has yet to begin at all, in which control of Gaza would transfer from a disarmed Hamas to an Arab-sponsored Palestinian "technocratic" government. The process of disarmament should already have started.
As the Wall Street Journal reports today, though, Hamas has not only refused to disarm, but they also now want to control post-war Gaza:
Hamas is pushing for a postwar governance role in negotiations with Arab mediators. That stance is at odds with President Trump’s 20-point peace plan, which calls for the U.S.-designated terrorist group to give up power “in any form.”
Hamas has probed Israeli defenses prompting Israeli airstrikes in response and raising worries about the fragility of the cease-fire. And it has launched a bloody campaign against rival Palestinian groups, a show of force demonstrating that it remains the only power capable of ruling the Gaza Strip.
The group is betting it can assert itself without triggering a return to war. ...
Leaders of the militant group told Arab mediators in Cairo in recent days that Hamas won’t be erased and that it expects to play a part in the governance of the enclave going forward, the mediators said. The demand comes as negotiations are turning to the second phase of Trump’s plan—crafting Hamas-free alternatives for administering and securing Gaza.
Will Hamas win that bet? In past years, yes, but in past years, Hamas wouldn't have been put in this position in the first place. Previous American administrations would have pressured Israel to stop well before the point where Hamas had to capitulate, even temporarily, as in this case. That had been the pattern for the past twenty years, and even in the first year-plus of the October 7 war.
That's the pattern that Trump insisted on breaking. The question has been whether he would fall into the same trap as other US presidents and world leaders in valuing a peace agreement more than actual peace. Trump's promotion of the deal as one cementing his place as the "peace president" certainly has him invested in its success, the same leverage that usually prompts the Hamas Hokey Pokey and a new lease on life for the terrorists.
At least thus far, Hamas' attempt to double down still looks like a bad bet. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that the US would not interfere if Israel decided to enforce the terms of the agreement militarily, and there is no "Plan B" the Trump administration would support:
Asked at a press conference at the US-Israel ceasefire coordination center if Israel could resume fighting Hamas independently the group rearms or regroups, Rubio says that, “I don’t think this has to do anything with permission or anything of that nature. This has to do with basically, we’re all committed to making this plan work. There is no plan B. This is the best plan. It’s the only plan. It’s one that we think can succeed. It’s one that we believe is on the way to success,” he says.
In response to another question on Hamas disarmament, Rubio stresses that “If Hamas refuses to demilitarize, it’ll be a violation of the agreement, and that’ll have to be enforced. I’m not going to get into the mechanisms by which it is going to be enforced, but it’ll have to be enforced.”
He adds, “This is a deal, and a deal requires conditions to be met. Israel has met their commitments. They’re standing at the yellow line, and that is contingent upon the demilitarization.”
Rubio notes that Hamas disarmament and the demilitarization of Gaza under the second phase of the deal “is a long-term project,” but adds, “We want to help create the conditions here so that people in Gaza don’t have to be terrorized by Hamas and in fact, have lives, jobs, businesses, and a better future.”
That hasn't kept Trump's Arab partners from offering their ideas on a Plan B for Phase 2. One diplomat suggested that they could force Hamas to give up its "heavy weaponry," but allow them to carry small arms. The Israelis rejected this out of hand, but the Arabs retorted that they would not agree to disarm Hamas with their peacekeeping forces either:
An Israeli official pushed back on this notion, arguing that neither the technocratic government nor the ISF will be able to assert control in Gaza so long as Hamas maintains its weapons, whether they’re missiles or AK-47s.
The Arab diplomat did acknowledge that no country will be willing to contribute troops if the expectation is for the ISF to spar with Hamas, rejecting Trump’s claim to the contrary.
“If the US isn’t interested in sending troops to fight Hamas, why would any of us want to?” the Arab diplomat asked rhetorically.
“We can help with training Palestinian police and border security, but we’re not about to try and disarm Hamas through combat after two years of Israel being unable to do so,” the diplomat added.
There's a solution for that, though. The IDF still has its strategic positioning in Gaza and could simply start the conflict again if Hamas reneges on Trump's ceasefire deal by refusing to disarm. Rubio's declaration today makes it clear that the US will not act to restrain Israel if their Arab partners keep allowing the Hamas Hokey Pokey to play out and for the terrorist network to rebuild.
Of course, that's easy to say. At the same time, Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu have a new conflict arising between them over a Knesset vote for annexation of the West Bank. Trump has publicly warned Netanyahu that Israel risks losing his support if Israel attempts that annexation. Trump is taking this personally, one administration official warned:
“The Israelis can’t treat us like we’re Joe Biden,” a Trump administration official told The Times of Israel late Thursday, speaking on condition of anonymity. Netanyahu regularly sparred with Biden during the Democratic president’s administration and was accused at times of seeking rifts with him for domestic political gain. ...
Another US official warned Thursday that Trump will “f**k” Netanyahu if the Israeli leader jeopardizes the Gaza ceasefire and hostage release deal, according to a Channel 12 report.
“Netanyahu is walking a fine line with President Trump. If he keeps going, he’ll f**k up the Gaza deal. And if he f**ks up the deal, Donald Trump will f**k him,” the official reportedly told the outlet’s correspondent Barak Ravid.
Vice President J.D. Vance is in Israel at the moment, and he also took personal offense to what is likely a political stunt vote. Netanyahu opposes the annexation bill, at least for public consumption, but his coalition partners are pushing it nonetheless. Vance made his displeasure public:
“This cannot happen while I am visiting here,” Vance was said to have retorted. American officials reportedly warned Netanyahu that the vote could provoke a backlash and destabilize ongoing negotiations over the ceasefire.
Leaving Israel on Thursday afternoon, Vance said at the airport that he was told the initial passage of the bill was a “political stunt” and “purely symbolic,” but that, if so, it was a “very stupid political stunt, and I personally take some insult to it.”
Needless to say, this is not exactly the most propitious time for a US-Israel split and for personal animosity to erupt between its leaders. However, that may not help Hamas much either, as the Trump administration acted mainly to restrain Netanyahu and to curtail the expansion of military operations against the terrorists. If anything, a gap here might convince Netanyahu to try decapitating Hamas' leadership abroad again, and to unleash the full force of the IDF on Gaza City to end Hamas altogether.
The other Arab countries have to know this as well. Let's see how far Hamas' Plan B ideas actually go in this volatile environment.
Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.
Help us continue to report on the administration’s peace through strength foreign policy and its successes. Join Hot Air VIP, VIP Gold, or VIP Platinum, and use promo code POTUS47 to get 74% off your membership!
Join the conversation as a VIP Member