Iran's mullahs had better start preparing for another major shift in the region. Syria shook off its Russian yoke, and new developments in the war in Ukraine are about to make Iran a lot less useful to Vladimir Putin, too.

Earlier today, Donald Trump announced that he will act to fulfill one of his key campaign pledges -- to end the three-year war in Ukraine. After a prisoner exchange with Putin that sent money-launderer Alexander Vinnik back and Marc Fogel home yesterday, Putin agreed to an immediate launch of negotiations for ending the conflict:

I just had a lengthy and highly productive phone call with President Vladimir Putin of Russia. We discussed Ukraine, the Middle East, Energy, Artificial Intelligence, the power of the Dollar, and various other subjects. We both reflected on the Great History of our Nations, and the fact that we fought so successfully together in World War II, remembering, that Russia lost tens of millions of people, and we, likewise, lost so many! We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together. But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of, “COMMON SENSE.” We both believe very strongly in it. We agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each other’s Nations. We have also agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, and we will begin by calling President Zelenskyy, of Ukraine, to inform him of the conversation, something which I will be doing right now. I have asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Director of the CIA John Ratcliffe, National Security Advisor Michael Waltz, and Ambassador and Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, to lead the negotiations which, I feel strongly, will be successful. Millions of people have died in a War that would not have happened if I were President, but it did happen, so it must end. No more lives should be lost! I want to thank President Putin for his time and effort with respect to this call, and for the release, yesterday, of Marc Fogel, a wonderful man that I personally greeted last night at the White House. I believe this effort will lead to a successful conclusion, hopefully soon!

The commencement of talks shouldn't surprise anyone. That appeared to be the purpose behind the prisoner swap yesterday -- a gesture intended to increase trust on both sides. Neither should the idea that Ukraine will have to make some territorial concessions to end the conflict, as Pete Hegseth more or less made official earlier today. The US will arbitrate for peace, but Europe will be responsible for security, Hegseth declared:

US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said on Wednesday that the war between Ukraine and Russia “must end,” that Kyiv joining NATO is unrealistic and that the US will no longer prioritize European and Ukrainian security as the Trump administration shifts its attention to securing the US’ own borders and deterring war with China.

In remarks before a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Hegseth also said that European troops should be the primary force securing a post-war Ukraine—something US troops will not be involved in, he added. ...

“To be clear, as part of any security guarantee, there will not be US troops deployed to Ukraine,” he said.

Hegseth also said that a return to Ukraine’s pre-2014 borders, before Russia invaded Crimea and eastern Ukraine, “is an unrealistic objective.”

None of this will surprise Volodymyr Zelensky either. He has conceded in public remarks that Ukraine will be forced to make some "territorial swaps" to end the war, which in some ways may be to his long-term benefit. If Russia takes the Donbass, it will seriously undercut the political strength of ethnic Russians in a reconfigured Ukraine. That will produce governments much more aligned to the EU than to Moscow, even apart from all of the hatred Putin fomented with his attempt to conquer and subjugate the entire country. The real question will be getting security guarantees to prevent Putin from trying it again.

Assuming the war does end, and ends on a permanent basis of security arrangements that will satisfy long-term concerns between the two belligerents, that changes the global and regional situation significantly. Western nations could ease and eliminate sanctions on Russian exports and banking that have proved nearly catastrophic to their economy. That would make Russia much less dependent on China, for one thing; even if it doesn't produce a Russian reorientation to the West, it at least cuts into the economic prospects for Beijing for the longer term.

More importantly, an end to the war would likely result in a sharp reduction of reliance on Iran for both economic and military necessities. That would include the massive drone and missile purchases Putin got forced to make when his own industrial base couldn't keep up with the demand of a hot-war quagmire in Ukraine. An easing of sanctions will get Putin more access to make his own materiel, which will make the mullahs a lot less necessary.

Note that Trump explicitly included the Middle East as part of this discussion, if not the negotiations themselves. Trump is about to set a red-line example against one of Iran's main proxy armies in Gaza; he no doubt will want Putin to get at arms-length distance at best from the radical-Islamist theocratic regime in Tehran to further isolate Hamas as well as Iran. By helping to settle Russia's claims in majority-ethnic-Russian enclaves in Ukraine, Trump will almost certainly demand a quid pro quo in regard to Iran. Putin might want his help in negotiating a return to Syria's ports for the Russian navy too, which would provide more leverage for the US, although the expulsion of Russia from Syria is entirely a good development for our own security interests. 

Perhaps Putin will still see a long-term interest in aligning with Iran. However, what can Iran do for them now? They got Russia into Syria for its lines of communication only through the auspices of Bashar al-Assad, and that ended up backfiring on Russia when Iran decided to have Hezbollah go to war with Israel. Once Israel decimated Hezbollah leadership and destroyed its infrastructure, Assad fell and Russia's access to Syria with it, leaving the US in a greater position of influence instead. The mullahs turn out to be incompetent in regional muscle-flexing, and Putin is susceptible to the fairly universal impulse to align with the strong horse. 

A peace in Ukraine therefore may be bad news for Beijing in an ambiguous sense, but it's likely to be bad news in a much more concrete sense for the mullahs' future. And I bet they know it too.