Momentum? Given the sharply divided nature of the American electorate, this may be as momentum-y as we get. 

America's pollsters are delivering their final assessments of voter direction, and the direction looks pretty consistent -- both in national polling and in the battlegrounds. Two pollsters now report that Donald Trump has edged into the lead in the key state of the Keystone State, and that Kamala Harris has faded ... but it's not by much in either case.

First up is Frankin & Marshall, whose previous poll had Harris up by three points, 49/46. Harris is still at 49 points in their new poll too, but the undecideds have all swung to Trump. It looks like they're also coming to Dave McCormick in the Senate race as well:

The presidential and US Senate races show both are a toss-up among likely voters at this point in the race. Mr. Trump has a one-point advantage over Vice President Harris, 50% to 49%, and Senator Casey has a single-point lead over Mr. McCormick, 49% to 48%, among likely voters.[1] The difference in preferences among likely voters and registered voters, described below, is primarily because the partisan, ideological, and age profile of these voters is different–the current pool of registered voters is more Republican in terms of their party identity, has fewer moderates ideologically, and has fewer voters less than 35 years of age.

What's interesting about this race is the significant difference between registered voters and likely voters. Among RVs, Harris leads by four and Casey leads by seven. This indicates that Democrat RVs may have an enthusiasm problem, likely created by Harris' lack of traction on the economy and immigration. A majority support fracking and natural-gas extraction, which Harris has opposed in the past and has yet to offer a coherent reason why voters should trust her sudden reversal for the election cycle. 

In fact, the issue hierarchy in the data is very instructive for voter enthusiasm. Three in ten respondents name the economy as the biggest issue facing them, the highest level for the past three years despite all of the happy talk about the current trends on inflation. Another 3% list personal finances and unemployment as their top issue, which makes the economy the most important issue for a third of respondents. The other important issues in order of importance are:

• Government/politicians - 10%
• Taxes - 6%
• Crime - 6%
• Education - 5%

Immigration only gets 4%, but for many voters, that's also a crime issue. Abortion doesn't get listed as an explicit issue, but only 4% cited "civil liberties" and another 3% cited health care -- both broad topics that include a lot more than just abortion. To the extent that Harris and Democrats tried to leverage Dobbs as a campaign issue, they wasted their time in Pennsylvania.

Now let's take a look at Emerson, which has generally seen Trump and Harris either tied or Trump up by one since Harris became the nominee. Today they put Trump up by two, but only when accounting for leaners:

New Emerson College Polling/RealClearPennsylvania polling shows 49% of Keystone State voters support former President Donald Trump, while 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, overall, 51% support Trump and 49% support Harris. 

That trend is going in the wrong direction for Trump, but Harris may not have enough undecideds out there to make a difference now. Of course, it also appears that she's given up trying this week:

A majority of Pennsylvania voters (85%) decided who to support over a month ago, while 7% made up their minds in the past month, 4% in the last week, and another 4% are still undecided. 

“Voters who decided over a month ago favor Trump 51% to 47%, while voters who made up their mind within the past month/week lean toward Harris 52% to 45%,” Kimball noted. 

This poll was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, after Trump's shift at McDonald's but before Harris excused herself from the campaign trail. If it's this close and Harris really does have some momentum over the past week, why is she not pressing that advantage by campaigning in PA? Instead, she took the last two days off of campaign events entirely, and she'll be in Texas tomorrow. 

How will that help connect her to the concerns of the working class? Well, Beyoncé will tell them! From Houston, that is ...

Beyoncé, whose song "Freedom" is Kamala Harris' campaign anthem, is expected to be at Harris' Houston rally on Friday, AP sources say. https://t.co/kXkXwdlqlz

— The Associated Press (@AP) October 24, 2024

Yes, nothing says "I feel your pain in the Rust Belt" like hanging out with A-list celebs in Texas. Beyoncé certainly has a big fan base, but how many of them would be considering a vote for Trump rather than Harris? And why would voters really give a second thought to a celebrity endorsement at this point in the campaign?

Trump may end up winning Pennsylvania and the other Blue Wall states by default. Or maybe Harris already has data that she'll lose them and simply has decided not to bother. That's momentum in a way, too. 

Anyway, the RCP aggregate average has Trump barely up by 0.6 points after adding these two polls into the mix. But that may look like momentum too when you compare it to Trump's previous two elections, a comparison that RCP is always happy to provide. 

Pennsylvania This Day in History: October 24, 2020: Biden +5.3 | October 24, 2016: Clinton +5.6

Final results were: Biden +1.2 in 2020, and Trump 0.7 in 2016.