The Bloom Might Be Coming Off the Zelensky Rose

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, Pool

Hard on the heels of a serious misstep in judgment and overreach by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in mid-July... 

Thousands of people gathered in the streets of Kyiv, Ukraine, on Tuesday night to protest moves by President Volodymyr Zelensky’s government to weaken anticorruption institutions, in the country’s first major antigovernment demonstration in three and a half years of war.

The protest outside the president’s office in central Kyiv, including civilians and soldiers, was the most significant fracture so far in the national unity that has helped Ukraine survive a grueling and bloody fight against a Russian invasion. The government did not immediately make a statement on the gathering.

My husband is in the trenches and this is not what they are fighting for,” said Kateryna Amelina, 31. “This could be the destruction of 10 years of work by civil society.”

The demonstration, promoted widely on social media, came hours after Ukraine’s Parliament, controlled by Mr. Zelensky’s party, passed a measure stripping away the independence of two agencies responsible for investigating and prosecuting corruption. It gives Ukraine’s prosecutor general, appointed by the president, new powers over anticorruption agencies.

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...followed by an equally obvious and clumsy backtrack trying to repair the damage...

...It appears there's been what's known as a risk assessment followed by a tactical recalculation.

In common lingo, there's been a do-over

Ukraine's Parliament approves law restoring independence of anti-graft watchdogs following backlash

Ukraine’s Parliament on Thursday overwhelmingly approved a bill presented by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that restores the independence of two of the country’s key anti-corruption watchdogs, reversing his contentious move last week that curbed their power and brought an outcry.

...it appears a possible motive for the hasty measures restricting Ukraine's independent anti-corruption agencies has emerged.

It seems, judging by the latest arrest-a-palooza, speculation at the time was correct. 

Investigators were indeed hot on the too-close-to-the-top trail of additional persons associated either with the president himself and/or his party.

How awkward. All Zelensky could do from the hot spot he'd put himself in was thank everyone for their hard work uncovering the corruption.

The Ukrainian authorities have arrested a number of officials on suspicion of corruption in relation to what they called a “large scale” bribery scheme involving military procurement.

The announcement came days after President Volodymyr Zelensky, under intense domestic and international pressure, backtracked on a move to weaken two anticorruption agencies. His actions against the watchdogs prompted major street protests in Ukraine, the first antigovernment demonstrations since Russia’s full-scale invasion began in 2022.

In a statement on Saturday night, Mr. Zelensky thanked the agencies for their work in the military procurement case, making a point to stress the importance of their independent status — only three days after it was restored in a vote by Parliament.

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So, who exactly were these people, and what was the scheme?

Imagine that - military hardware purchase scams, selling service deferments, and siphoning funds off government contracts.

When you read this litany of sins, remember whose money paid for a good chunk of this hardware and operating expenses.

Ukraine arrests six officials for alleged drone procurement corruption

...They were allegedly part of an organised criminal group that was systematically syphoning-off government money during the procurement of unmanned aerial vehicles and electronic warfare systems in 2024 and 2025, which are critical for the country’s defence capabilities.

...The two UAV company members were additionally charged with alleged obstruction of the lawful activities of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

According to the investigation, they were allegedly paid to employ individuals and provide them with military service deferments, effectively preventing their mobilisation into the Armed Forces.

Members of the group allegedly involved in the contract signing knowingly accepted grossly inflated prices, pocketing up to 30 per cent of the contract value as illicit gains.

This alleged fraudulent scheme was also said to have been employed in the procurement of FPV drones valued at more than €200,000.

The company involved allegedly delivered the products at an exorbitant cost, overcharging by approximately €74,000 and subsequently funnelled a portion of that to the group members as kickbacks.

Schweet, SCHWEET lucre.

A fellow named Oleksii Kuznetsov is the MP who was arrested, who served on both the parliamentary human rights committee and the temporary tariff commission. Reportedly, he is being held for the next 60 days under their confinement rules, has a large bail set for possible release afterwards, and is facing ejection from the Servant of the People party.

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There was also a Zelensky-appointed regional governor snatched up.

...The governor in question reportedly was a former Luhansk Oblast governor, Serhii Haidai.

Ukraine’s Prime Minister, Yuliia Svyrydenko, convened an emergency Cabinet meeting following the allegations and Zelensky fired Haidai from his post.

The timing of these arrests couldn't have been worse for Zelensky's already battered image, coming as it did within days of his backflipping on trying to muzzle these very agencies, and only weeks after a close associate's German home had already been raided.

Not a good look all around for someone whose government, as well as they personally, is already regarded as highly suspect in the corruption department.

...The new alleged corruption scandal came just weeks after Rostyslav Shurma, the former deputy head of Volodymyr Zelensky’s presidential office, had his residence in Germany raided by Bavarian investigators at the request of Ukrainian anti-corruption investigators.

He was part of a group of several managers close to Zelensky now being investigated by NABU in Ukraine.

The government's scrambling in response to the corruption bug hunt is leading to heightened conjecture that Zelensky may well be operating on borrowed time, as the Zelensky reaction inspires little confidence that the autocrat is operating above board.

The Russians are only too happy to feed a rumor mill swirling with secret meetings to depose the perpetually sweater-clad leader.

But cooler analytical heads have been watching the Ukrainian people as they begin to pull away from their charismatic leader. His autocratic tendencies have begun to wear on them, even as the war grinds on. What they see are signs that Zelensky no longer commands the unquestioned devotion of many Ukrainians, who are now willing to chance reprisals by attending street demonstrations against his policies, or are speaking out for the first time when queried.

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In almost every case, it was the events of the last few weeks that have finally pushed them over the edge. Zelensky's self-interested machinations ramming the anti-corruption agency rescission through parliament, and then his craven action repealing them in the face of Ukrainian anger in the streets (compounded by the European Union cutting the money off) were a final, indefensible breach of trust. 

...The initial new law was ominous because its passage coincided with coordinated actions by the Ukrainian Security Service and prosecutor-general, including more than 20 searches against NABU agents around the country. These searches focused on a series of alleged transgressions involving the state secrets and included allegations of one agent’s possible collaboration with Russia—a charge that many Ukrainians consider politically motivated. The searches gave Zelensky’s loyal Security Service and newly appointed prosecutor-general access to NABU agents’ smartphones and computers, which likely contain significant information on current corruption investigations, including those focused on several of Zelensky’s cabinet ministers and advisors.

For many Ukrainians, the raids and legislation were evidence of an authoritarian drift by Zelensky and his closest advisors. Over the last year and a half, Zelensky’s administration has frozen the assets of his political rival and predecessor as president, Petro Poroshenko, on the grounds of “national security”; concentrated control over television news content to keep critics of the government off the airwaves; banned broadcasts of all parliamentary proceedings; and opened frivolous criminal cases against government critics and anti-corruption activists. For several years, these and other measures were largely ignored by Ukraine’s Western partners and tolerated by most Ukrainians, who were willing to give their wartime leader wide scope for action.

The events of the last few days have created a tipping point in the sentiment at home and abroad with major implications for Zelensky’s and Ukraine’s future.

First, the protests likely signaled the beginning of the end for the Zelensky era—a natural process in a vibrant democracy like Ukraine’s. Notwithstanding Ukrainians’ strong support for Zelensky as their wartime leader, public trust in him had been waning well before last week, as had his political prospects. According to a June poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, 41 percent of respondents thought that Ukraine was trending toward authoritarianism. These trends are likely to be accelerated by the widespread public disapproval of Zelensky’s latest actions.

A June poll by Socis showed that if a presidential election were held now, the former commander in chief of the Ukrainian Armed Forces, Valery Zaluzhny, would trounce Zelensky—60.5 percent to 39.5 percent. (Many Ukrainians believe that Zelensky dismissed Zaluzhny last year precisely because of the latter’s growing popularity.) The polls are even worse for Zelensky’s Servant of the People party, which stands to not only lose its majority in parliament but also run behind several other political parties and coalitions.

Second, the anti-corruption controversy marks the end of the carte blanche that Zelensky had been given by Ukrainian society and the international community. The attention of international donors is now fixed not just on supporting Ukraine militarily and financially but also on Zelensky’s domestic policies. In the future, aid for the domestic economy is likely to be linked more rigorously to reform and good governance benchmarks—something the European Union is particularly well-placed to enforce, since Ukraine’s EU accession process is coupled with strict criteria on governance and rule of law. EU leaders and officials’ loud warnings to Kyiv to not backslide on anti-corruption—or else risk the accession process—surely played a major role in making Zelensky fold so quickly.

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President Trump spoke with Zelensky this morning, a phone call the Ukrainian president said was 'productive.' This is all in regard to the ceasefire deadline that Trump laid down for Vladimir Putin, which is set to expire on Friday. Putin is now saying he is 'open' to meeting with Zelensky, and Trump's envoy Steve Witkoff has just finished meeting with the Russian president for talks that were called 'constructive.'

Zelensky may have done himself a serious injury over the course of the past month, should actual negotiations with Russia happen. He has managed to weaken his domestic position considerably all by himself, fracturing the precious commodity 'national unity,' and no one smells blood in the water better than Putin. The continued legitimacy and strength of his position as president are now under scrutiny not only within Ukraine's borders but also from without, as the international community that has funded the war starts to play hardball over accountability.

It's a very different stage that the actor-turned-president suddenly finds himself on, and he's the one who moved the set furniture.

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David Strom 10:00 AM | August 06, 2025
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