Is this “a big win for Republicans,” as Bret Baier tweeted a few minutes ago? Let’s put it this way — after last night, Republicans won’t get picky about wins of any sort.

But yeah, taking out the opposition’s chief electoral strategist in a seat that should normally have been safe is a big f’in’ deal, to quote Joe Biden. Considering that Sean Patrick Maloney essentially threw another Democrat under the bus to run in this district, his concession to a Republican in the D+9 17th congressional district of New York may be particularly galling to the DCCC chair’s party:

Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, D-N.Y., the chairman of House Democrats’ campaign arm, has conceded defeat in his re-election bid to Republican New York Assemblyman Mike Lawler, a spokesman for the Maloney campaign said. NBC News has not projected a winner in the race.

The race had been considered a toss-up in recent weeks. Maloney, who has served in Congress since 2013, is head of the House Democrats’ campaign fundraising arm this election cycle. It is very rare for the head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee to lose re-election.

The race to represent New York’s 17th Congressional District, which covers parts of Westchester and Rockland Counties, had become so competitive that Democrats had to launch an eleventh-hour rescue mission for Maloney.

In fairness to Maloney, he’s not the only House Democrat in New York looking at humiliating defeat. Four other seats look likely to flip as well, which would all but cement a GOP majority in November:

If Democrats lose the House (which seems likely at this point), New York may be a big reason why.

In #NY03, #NY04, #NY17, #NY19, and #NY25, Republicans appear heavily favored.

All five voted for Biden in 2020 (by 5-15 points) and were considered highly competitive. pic.twitter.com/TZUHLVIJby

— Ryan Matsumoto (@ryanmatsumoto1) November 9, 2022

As I’ve noted, NY-17 is a D+9 district that Maloney hand-picked as his safest choice for re-election. Mondaire Jones got pushed into a competitive primary against Dan Goldman in NY-10 and lost; Goldman’s winning that D+27 district handily. However, the GOP has already flipped NY-3 and is close to doing the same in Syracuse-Utica NY-22, and is leading by even more in NY-4.

Why are Republicans doing so well in New York? Candidate quality matters, as it turns out, especially at the top of the ticket. And while Lee Zeldin fell short of victory against Kathy Hochul in the gubernatorial election, getting within six points of the incumbent-appointee provided lift for Republicans down the ballot. Real Clear News reporter Philip Wegmann heard exactly that from a GOP official:

GOP official tells RCP: DeSantis & Zeldin "were two most important candidates on ballot" because "they each delivered multiple House seats for Rs."

"Candidate quality matters, but top of ticket quality matters even more. House Rs got crushed in PA & KS, but thrived in NY & FL.

— Philip Melanchthon Wegmann (@PhilipWegmann) November 9, 2022

I’ll have more on DeSantis later, but the GOP owes Zeldin at least a fruit basket for his efforts in New York. If Kevin McCarthy ends up with the gavel in the next session of Congress, he might just owe that to Zeldin’s dogged efforts. In practical terms, Maloney’s loss matters more because it makes a narrow GOP majority all but certain than his status as DCCC chair does.

For Democrats expecting a red wave, the loss of Maloney may be more embarrassing than substantive. After the fiasco of redistricting led to the feud with Mondaire Jones this spring, a number of House Democrats wanted Maloney out of the DCCC chair anyway. If he had managed to hang onto the seat, Maloney would likely have been headed for backbencher status regardless, even after quarterbacking a better-than-expected outcome for House Democrats this cycle.

Still, this is both a big deal and good news for Republicans — but it’s also a lesson. If the GOP had taken more care with candidate selection in this cycle, they may well have flipped D+9 districts in other parts of the country. The GOP learned hard lessons about candidate quality in 2010 and 2012 and turned those into gold in the 2014 Senate cycle. Let’s hope the lesson sinks in quickly enough for them to take advantage of a very friendly Senate cycle in 2024, as well as the obvious opportunities in the House and presidential elections.

Now that the midterms are over, we must prepare for the all-important 2024 presidential cycle — in fact, even more urgently than before. We need to make sure Democrats are one and done in the White House, and keep them locked out of control of Congress too. If you want real in-depth analysis and exclusive content and wish to support the long-term mission, join HotAir VIP today and use promo code VIPWEEK to receive 45% off your membership!