Has the usual pollster shift to reality in the final weeks of an election begun? It certainly looks that way at Siena as well as in the New York Times this morning. Their commissioned poll has moved five points in a month toward the GOP in the generic ballot.

A month ago, Democrats had a one-point edge. Now the Siena/NYT result shows a 49/45 Republican advantage in what will likely be this series’ final look at the landscape before voters finish voting on November 8. And guess which issue “leaped” to the top of the heap in this iteration?

The poll shows that 49 percent of likely voters said they planned to vote for a Republican to represent them in Congress on Nov. 8, compared with 45 percent who planned to vote for a Democrat. The result represents an improvement for Republicans since September, when Democrats held a one-point edge among likely voters in the last Times/Siena poll. (The October poll’s unrounded margin is closer to three points, not the four points that the rounded figures imply.)

With inflation unrelenting and the stock market steadily on the decline, the share of likely voters who said economic concerns were the most important issues facing America has leaped since July, to 44 percent from 36 percent — far higher than any other issue. And voters most concerned with the economy favored Republicans overwhelmingly, by more than a two-to-one margin.

The demos are particularly noteworthy. First off, the gender gap has disappeared, at least for Republicans. Women split evenly (47/47) between the two parties in the generic ballot, which indicates a total flop of Democrats’ midterm strategy of focusing almost exclusively on abortion. Republicans have a five-point edge among men, and are in competitive range among younger voters too.

But it’s the independents that are killing Democrats. The GOP leads among indies on the generic ballot 51/41, a massive lead with only three weeks left in the election cycle. Who knew that Dems’ radical-progressive, cancel-culture, woke-enforcement posture would turn off unaffiliated voters? Okay, okay, we all knew it — everyone but the Gray Lady, anyway:

Both Democrats and Republicans have largely coalesced behind their own party’s congressional candidates. But the poll showed that Republicans opened up a 10-percentage point lead among crucial independent voters, compared with a three-point edge for Democrats in September, as undecided voters moved toward Republicans.

The biggest shift came from women who identified as independent voters. In September, they favored Democrats by 14 points. Now, independent women backed Republicans by 18 points — a striking swing given the polarization of the American electorate and how intensely Democrats have focused on that group and on the threat Republicans pose to abortion rights.

One can almost hear the stunned scorn rolling off of that last sentence. Don’t these women know what’s good for them? is the subtext of the last clause. These voters know better than the NYT what’s bad for them, of course, and it’s another two years of the Democrats’ economic policies and of an unfettered Joe Biden. He gets a 39/58 job approval rating in this poll and an abysmal 33/63 among independents. Even 15% of Democrats disapprove of Biden’s job performance, along with 29% of black voters, 48% of Hispanics, and 55% of women. Donald Trump isn’t terribly popular either (43/53), but he edges Biden in a hypothetical rematch in this poll, 45/44.

So much for making the midterms about Trump, eh?

But the real flop can be seen in the issues responses in the crosstabs. The NYT doesn’t offer a chart of these responses, but the numbers show just how badly Democrats have calculated their messaging in these midterms. The most important issue for voters in this survey are, in percentage order:

• Economy (including jobs, stock market): 26%
• Inflation/cost of living: 18%
• State of democracy: 8%
• Abortion: 5%
• Immigration: 5%
• Polarization/division: 4%
• Crime: 3%

Almost half of the electorate prioritize economic issues (44%), and third place is the January 6 stuff at a distant 8%. Abortion comes in fourth, and even that ends up tied with immigration. Abortion only scores 9% among women, only 10% among 18-29YOs, and only 4% among 30-44YOs. Economic issues score 38%, 46%, and 46% in the same demos, respectively.

What about other Democrat demos?

• College degree: Economy/inflation 37%, abortion 5%
• Black voters: 39%, 6%
• Hispanics: 49%, 7%
• Urban voters: 34%, 5%
• Democrats themselves: 34%, 8%

It’s almost incomprehensible how badly Democrats miscalculated their messaging in this cycle. These numbers, by the way, look like Democrats will fall farther than five points back in the congressional vote this year, which itself would be bad enough. These numbers look like wipeout territory. Don’t get cocky, but also don’t be surprised if more pollsters start showing the same last-minute shifts to correct for reality in the next couple of weeks.