Just how "torn" is Senate GOP on SCOTUS strategy?

AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite

Are Senate Republicans really “split” on strategy in handling Joe Biden’s nomination to the Supreme Court? Or are they just offering a multi-pronged approach to an inevitability that will generally suit the entire caucus? NBC News describes the GOP as “torn” on the approach to Stephen Breyer’s replacement, but color me skeptical:

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Senate Republicans are torn about how to approach the impending Supreme Court vacancy under President Joe Biden, with some launching attacks out of the gate even as others voice openness to supporting his yet-to-be-named nominee. …

Asked whether he’s open to voting for the nominee, Sen. Josh Hawley, R-Mo., said he will wait to see whom Biden chooses. Asked whether there are any Black female judges he could support, Hawley mentioned Janice Rogers Brown, 72, a retired conservative appeals court judge.

Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., a senior member of the Judiciary Committee who has kept the door open to a Biden nominee, talked up one of the prospects: U.S. District Judge Michelle Childs of his home state, South Carolina. …

Some Republicans have all but closed the door on voting for the eventual nominee.

Roger Wicker believes that any Biden nominee will have to get Kamala Harris to cast a tie-breaking vote. That may well overstate the resistance to whomever Biden picks, though. Judge Childs has already received all-but-endorsements from Graham and Tim Scott, for instance, and with Sen. Ben Ray Luján (D-NM) out indefinitely with a stroke, that might push Biden to get what he can out of this exercise and call it a day. Ketanji Brown Jackson is the likeliest top pick, but no Republican has yet to offer any support for her as a SCOTUS appointment. (Jackson got three Republican votes for confirmation to the DC Circuit last year.)

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But wait! The Hill reports that Mitch McConnell wants to “dial down the drama” on this pick:

Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is looking to dial down the drama as he plots his party’s strategy for the upcoming Supreme Court fight.

McConnell is navigating complex political headwinds. He’s got conservative firebrands, including some GOP senators with White House dreams, who could use the nomination to garner attention from the party’s base. Meanwhile, a handful of Republicans are viewed as swing votes, meaning there’s no guarantee the caucus will ultimately be unified.

McConnell is warning President Biden against making a pick that caters to progressives, but also indicated Republicans will keep the upcoming confirmation battle civil and focused on qualifications of the nominee, who is expected to be the first Black woman selected for the Supreme Court.

“I think you would anticipate the Senate Republican minority … treating the nominee with respect and going through the process in a serious, thoughtful way,” McConnell told reporters.

These aren’t exactly mutually exclusive strategies, however. In fact, they could very well be complementary. Different members of the GOP caucus will have different political needs, and McConnell’s better than most at strategizing around them.

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So what can we expect? McConnell will likely try to keep a lid on any direct personal attacks on the nominee, whomever Joe Biden chooses. If individual members try to generate the kind of character assassination that Democrats conducted on Brett Kavanaugh (and for that matter Clarence Thomas), McConnell will at least distance the rest of the caucus from it — unlike how Chuck Schumer went all-in on Kavanaugh. Without caucus support, those kinds of attacks will not get very far.

However, track records on cases are clearly going to be fair game. Republicans likely began preparing tough questions for several of the top candidates vis-a-vis Biden’s promise to nominate a black woman to the first SCOTUS opening. They didn’t do much damage to Brown Jackson last year in her confirmation hearing, which barely generated any notice at the time anyway. Perhaps they will have refined their opposition by this point in anticipation of her getting Biden’s nod.

In the end, though, it’s in McConnell’s best interest to keep the process moving. Biden’s replacing Breyer, not a conservative, so the balance of the court won’t change. The lower the temperature, the less of a rallying point this will become for Democratic voters in the midterms. And as long as he can make sure that his caucus doesn’t toss sand in the gears in a futile effort at obstruction and that the attacks don’t get personal, McConnell is best served by moderates sounding moderate and fire-breathers breathing fire on judicial and political records. That kind of strategy leaves all options open and serves all constituencies.

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Thus, no one’s really torn on the GOP confirmation strategy. That is, no one except the mainstream media looking for an application of their Republicans pounce!® narratives.

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