Hillary Clinton got a lift from a Democratic convention that pulled her party together more than it attracted outsiders, the latest NBC News/Survey Monkey tracking poll finds. She now leads Donald Trump by eight, 50/42, in the binary race, and has taken over the lead in the four-way question:
Following the Democratic National Convention, Hillary Clinton now leads Donald Trump by 8 points — 50 percent to 42 percent — up from a single-point difference last week, according to the latest NBC News|SurveyMonkey poll. …
Clinton also saw a bounce in a four-way general election match-up against Trump, Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein. Clinton now leads Trump by 4 points — 42 percent to 38 percent — in the four-way race. This is a lead-reversal from last week, when Trump was beating the Democratic nominee by 2 points. Support for Johnson (9 points) and Stein (4 points) remained virtually unchanged from last week.
Perhaps even more worrying for Republicans, the convention managed to burnish Hillary’s image. She picked up five points for “strongly favorable,” going from 15% to 20%, in two weeks. Much of that gain appears to be within the party; her rating among Democrats went from 74/24 to 80/19.
Democrats actually wound up losing ground overall with their convention. Among all voters, only 27% said it made them more favorable to Democrats, and 35% said less favorable. As one can imagine, Republicans didn’t care for it at all; only 4% said it made them more favorable, while 63% said less favorable. Independents had almost the same exact experience, though, at 8/42. The Democratic convention really only spoke to Democrats despite their attempts on the final day to orient themselves toward the center. Still, for a party that needed to unify, the 50/11 among Democrats clearly has helped.
But is that what’s driving Hillary’s bounce? As NBC notes, the survey period took place from July 25-31, covering the whole week of the convention plus most of the Khan contretemps. Hillary picked up four points from last week’s results, while Trump has lost three, going from 45% to 42%. Trump had roughly the same unity numbers coming out of his convention as Hillary got from last week — 52/11 among Republicans, 9/42 among independents. Trump got no bounce from it, though, and Hillary’s 4-point bounce this week is not exactly spectacular. It’s Trump’s decline that aggravates it, and it puts him at his lowest rating in this series in a month.
One has to think that Hillary might have picked up a little steam coming out of the convention while coincidentally Trump stepped all over his own message this week. The only good news for Team Trump is that while Hillary’s getting a post-convention bump, it’s not exactly putting her out of reach — if the campaign can right itself and focus on attacking Hillary rather than Gold Star families.