We got a few tweets and e-mails about Gallup’s daily tracking poll results posted yesterday, but didn’t get around to commenting on it. Barack Obama’s approval rating dropped three points in a single day while his disapproval rating jumped up four, giving him the worst rating of his presidency at 38/55. Both numbers are records for Obama’s presidency in the Gallup series.
Daily tracking polls are volatile, which is why Gallup and Rasmussen use three-day calculations for their numbers. A seven-point swing in the gap is still an unusually large swing, and it’s worth noting that Rasmussen didn’t track the same response. Yesterday’s tracking poll at Rasmussen had Obama underwater at 46/54, the difference mainly being undecideds. However, that’s a point better for Obama than Saturday’s 45/54, and five points better than Friday’s 43/56.
Since these polls operate in three-day cycles, the shift must have come from a relatively positive result from Gallup’s survey calls on Wednesday dropping out of the calculation, replaced by a horrendous result from Saturday’s calls. Obama didn’t do much over Friday and Saturday to create a big shift, as far as I can recall. The only explanations for the dramatic difference would be (a) Gallup surveyed a sample that was uniquely unhappy with Obama, (b) weekend respondents create a different response profile, or (c) Obama’s handling of Hurricane Irene annoyed respondents. Option (b) has certainly been argued, but argued that they’re more favorable to Democrats. Option (c) would be possible, but the Irene bust didn’t become clear until Sunday.
Given that Rasmussen isn’t picking up on a dramatic popular shift in the same tracking poll, I’m going to guess (a). We’ll know more when we see the results from both tracking polls over the next few days.
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