Tim Pawlenty’s team took some encouragement from a new poll in Iowa that shows them moving into second place ahead of the Ames straw poll next month.  The Conservative Journal’s automated poll looks like much better news for another Minnesotan, Michele Bachmann, as she cruises to a 33% finish among 1000 likely voters, outpacing Pawlenty almost 3-1.  Bachmann leads the field in every demographic by at least 2-1 except 18-34YO voters, which she wins 30/18 over third-place finisher Mitt Romney:

Michele Bachmann starts out our Iowa Caucus polling on top with 33% of likely Iowa Caucus voters choosing her as their first choice, giving her a commanding lead on second place finisher Tim Pawlenty, who earned 13% of the vote.  Former Iowa Caucus leader Mitt Romney finished third, with 12% of the vote.  Following the upper-tier are Ron Paul, Herman Cain, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, and Gary Johnson with 7%, 5%, 4%, 2%, 1%, and <1%, respectively.

Fox News also took notice of Pawlenty’s move in the poll:

The focus on this particular poll is somewhat puzzling.  TCJ doesn’t have a series built for the Iowa caucuses yet, and while the general outcome fits the conventional wisdom at the moment, I’m not certain it’s reliable. Normally, one would focus more attention on independent pollsters or the Des Moines Register, whose caucus polling has proven generally reliable over the years.

Assuming that this poll has produced reliable results, Pawlenty looks as though he’s poised for the second-place finish he needs. However, a second-place finish at 13% isn’t going to give him a lot of boost for the following several months until the actual caucus takes place in January. He needs to finish stronger in his back yard, which Bachmann is making difficult for him. If the alternative candidates continue to decline in Iowa as they seem to do in this poll, Pawlenty might become the Bachmann alternative — assuming, of course, that Rick Perry and/or Sarah Palin don’t jump into the Ames debate in the meantime, a move that might bury both Minnesotans.