Remember how the Obama administration used that big, splashy fourth-quarter GDP number to claim that they had turned the corner on economic growth?  Most analysts realized that the claims were spurious when over half of the 5.7% annual growth rate came from inventory management rather than actual production, leaving actual Q4 growth at 2.2%, annualized.  Today the AP belatedly warns that we can’t expect a return to those halcyon days:

Most of last quarter’s growth came from a large bump up in manufacturing — but not because consumer demand was especially strong. In fact, consumer spending weakened at the end of the year, even more than the government previously estimated, contributing to the slightly lower reading on overall economic growth.

Instead, factories were churning out goods for businesses that had let their stockpiles dwindle to save cash. If consumer spending remains lackluster as expected, that burst of manufacturing — and its contribution to economic activity — will fade.

Analysts predict the economy will expand at only between a 2.5 percent and 3 percent pace in the first quarter of this year. The next two quarters should log similar growth, they say.

In normal times, growth in the 3 percent range would be considered respectable. But the nation is emerging from the worst recession since the 1930s. Sizzling growth in the 5 percent range would be needed for an entire year to drive down the unemployment rate, now 9.7 percent, by just 1 percentage point.

In terms of actual growth, 2.5% would still be an improvement over Q4.  The signing of ObamaCare makes even that a tough, uphill climb.  More than 3500 businesses in the US will have to take charges on earnings of over $14 billion this year, thanks to the elimination of the tax credit for providing retirees with prescription-medication coverage.  They will also face incentives, especially in the small-business sector, to keep salaries and hiring low.  That combination practically guarantees a no-growth or slow-growth 2010, and probably beyond.

With unemployment remaining high, we can expect continued bad news in the housing sector.  Indeed, if we could expect massive growth in the near future, Obama wouldn’t have had to propose subsidizing distressed mortgages with $50 billion in TARP money.  As people continue to lose value in their homes and default on mortgages, they will continue to save money rather than spend it, providing a contracting pressure on the economy.

Does this report mean that the AP will drop its favorite adverb — “unexpectedly” — from reports about poor economic performance in the future?