Fourth-quarter GDP 5.7%

posted at 10:12 am on January 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The administration got some unexpectedly good news on the economic front this morning, although it had to be qualified almost immediately.  Annualized GDP in the fourth quarter rose 5.7%, the second quarter in a row of growth in the economy, which makes the recovery official.  However, almost two-thirds of it came from a slowdown in liquidation of inventories, leaving an anemic 2.2% of actual growth:

The U.S. economy grew at a faster-than-expected 5.7 percent pace in the fourth quarter, the quickest in more than six years, as businesses made less-aggressive cuts to inventories and stepped up spending.

The Commerce Department said on Friday its first estimate put fourth-quarter gross domestic product growth at its fastest pace since the third quarter of 2003. The economy expanded at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the third quarter.

Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast GDP, which measures total goods and services output within U.S. borders, growing at a 4.6 percent rate in October-December period.

CNBC points out that actual growth is still muted:

Growth was boosted a sharp slowdown in the pace of inventory liquidation, a factor that could mask the strength of the economic recovery from the longest and deepest downturn since the Great Depression.

But even stripping out inventories, the economy expanded at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, accelerating from the 1.5 percent increase in the third quarter, reflecting relatively strong performance from other segments of the economy.

Business inventories fell only $33.5 billion in fourth quarter after dropping $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The change in inventories alone added 3.39 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987.

These are all preliminary numbers, of course.  Commerce first estimated 2009Q3 GDP at a 3.5% annualized rate of growth.  Later it had to revise that number downward twice, to the same 2.2% that remains in Q4 after eliminating inventory manipulation. In a month to six weeks, look for that number to slide downward again, although not as much as in Q3, which was an unusually high correction.  It also looks like the inventory accounting will be a one-time deal, which won’t help the numbers in the next quarter.

Politically, this could not come at a better time for Obama.  He wants to move forward on jobs in the same direction as Porkulus, and these numbers will lend credence to his argument that his policies are the correct cure for the economy.  But a 2.2% rate of real growth won’t be enough to get capital back in the game, especially under the business conditions set by the high-spending, high-regulating, high-taxing agenda in Congress.

Next month’s unemployment report will have more impact on the economic policy debate, I’d guess, than the GDP number.


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In the electronics biz we’re definitely seeing a bounce due to restocking. But for my company, at least, we’re still cutting folks. Why? Because we’ve seen that the customers are building back their inventory to correct spot shortages, but the sales rate has settled down to a much lower rate than before.

nerdbert on January 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM

I hope you keep your job at least…

I also believe – due to lower costs for inventories – your comapny needs to meet their proft margin, hence cutting employees, while selling cheaper goods to meet that margin.

Odie1941 on January 29, 2010 at 11:17 AM

Yes! Obamas policies are promoting economic growth. We all should have seen this coming, they have worked wonders in Venezuela and Zimbabwe why would you idiot conservatives think for a second they wouldn’t work here.

TheSitRep on January 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

FYI for any of you who are interested: It looks like it was a rebuilding of inventory in Q4, not a slowing in the rate of reduction of inventory. And no article has yet mentioned the increase in the price index (see below):

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:48 AM
Hmmm. That doesn’t square with the Yahoo article linked in the headlines:

Business inventories fell only $33.5 billion in fourth quarter after dropping $139.2 billion in the July-September period. The change in inventories alone added 3.39 percentage points to GDP in the last quarter. This was the biggest percentage contribution since the fourth quarter of 1987.

-Yeah. I don’t know how the GDP can be positively impacted by an increase in inventories (as the government said when explaining what happened) but still have a net reduction in inventories when looking at the numbers.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

Irrational exuberance…

TN Mom on January 29, 2010 at 11:22 AM

–I’m not claiming the stimulus was a success.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:04 AM

Then what are you claiming when you say:

–What you’re not seeing in those numbers is increases in employment at the suppliers of the infrastructure. That company won’t be manufacturing or producing the infrastructure itself. It will have contracts with suppliers to make the infrastructure.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:50 AM

…..seems to me to be a defense of the stimulus.

You,nor I,and especially the White House have any idea whether surrounding businesses increased employment to help fill these orders.

I know many businesses that have cut hours cut off days of the work week to keep their people from being unemployed.

An increase in business pretty much “might” give them a full work week now.

The point is that success is being claimed by the White House based on deceitful reporting and manipulation of numbers.

This might help with talking points in the short term,but if there is no real change, the backlash will be immense.
Ref. the elections in NJ,VA,and Mass.

These voters made their decisions based on what they are dealing with in their day to day activities, not off the bogus talking points coming from the democratic party.

This is just one of many examples of so called “success” of the stimulus by the White House.

All over the Nation we have democrats bragging about creating jobs with the stimulus that work out to be a crazy cost to the tax payer.
No matter how it is spun,these numbers are insane.

Total jobs added? According to them, 15 in 2009 and 27 in 2010. For $100 million. Am I supposed to cheer for that?

42 jobs for 100 million dollars and liberals are bragging about this.

$2,380,952.38 cost per job!!!!!!

….and Mr. 57 states is so proud of this he bragged about it in the State of the Union.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:25 AM

From:

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2010/pdf/gdp4q09_adv.pdf

GDP In Billions of Dollars
2007 14,077.6
2008 14,441.4
2009 14,258.7

How, in the HE!!, doesn anyone spin a loss of $192.7 BIllion Dollars in lost GDP, into a 5.7% GAIN?

This is like the Global Warming numbers… all spin… no basic science or common sense.

Romeo13 on January 29, 2010 at 11:25 AM

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:19 AM

An increase in inventories would hopefully mean that stores were purchasing more from their suppliers, which would be good. If inventories were increasing because of a lack of sales alone, that would obviously not be good.

The whole term is misleading, though, because you don’t know if people are increasing their inventories in response to an increase in sales, or simply because they’re taking advantage of lower wholesale prices/ possibly projecting an increase in future sales.

But yeah. The articles are contradictory, which is why I hate relying on the initial reports – reports which always end up getting revised and/or corrected.

BadgerHawk on January 29, 2010 at 11:27 AM

Not sure i see the inconsistency there. If inventories are reducing at rate X, but companies begin to rebuld, that will slow the rate of reduction (assuming consumption remains relatively constant). ?

Midas on January 29, 2010 at 11:01 AM

Slowing the rate of reduction is still a reduction.

Sales went up 2.2%. I can buy that…for now. But for inventory to ADD to that 2.2%, we’d have to replace what was sold, and then some. We did not replace what was sold. Until we do, inventory would be a drag on the GDP number, not some huge addition.

MNHawk on January 29, 2010 at 11:28 AM

Things are looking great since we started using the Micheal Mann accounting algorithm?

TheSitRep on January 29, 2010 at 11:28 AM

Democrats will be all over this but trimming inventories is not a good sign.

drjohn on January 29, 2010 at 11:28 AM

Side note: Talk about whether or not the stimulus worked pisses me off.

Whether or not it worked is meaningless. THE STIMULUS STOLE MONEY FROM THE FUTURE TO PROP UP THE PRESENT. And it did it in an extremely inefficient manner.

BadgerHawk on January 29, 2010 at 11:29 AM

The only thing I can think of, assuming Toonces’ GDP number was right(yes I know, LOL) but we’ll assume for now.

Someone writing the press release confused a big increase in business capital expenditures with business inventories.

Two different things. But we did have a big increase in cap ex.

MNHawk on January 29, 2010 at 11:31 AM

How long before these numbers are corrected? We all know by now this type of information is subject to change. Total BS if you ask me.

milwife88 on January 29, 2010 at 11:32 AM

Why? Because we’ve seen that the customers are building back their inventory to correct spot shortages, but the sales rate has settled down to a much lower rate than before.

nerdbert on January 29, 2010 at 11:15 AM

Exactly…

I have accounts building up their inventories right now because:


They have not restocked their inventories for several months…..

They want product on the lot in hopes that they can take advantage of tax season…..

They are concerned that the price of goods will shoot up like they did starting in February last year.

Sales have started off seriously flat or are down.

Now some of this might be because consumers are scared to spend….

….if so then good economic news could help with consumer spending.

Right now my accounts state that either people don’t have money or the banks will not loan.

I am all for good news….

……..I am a business owner…I need it because when my accounts do better,I do better.

I am just tired of being lied to and watching our leadership spin information to help themselves politically.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:32 AM

Initial reports of post-Christmas layoffs mean the January unemployment numbers are likely to look pretty ugly when the numbers come out. January’s normally a bad month due to retailers laying off people following their heaviest sales period of the year, but when you start at a 10 percent base jobless rate in December, odds are whatever positive news the White House gets from today’s numbers will only have a one-week shelf live, since the January unemployment stats come out on Feb. 5.

jon1979 on January 29, 2010 at 11:33 AM

Suppose I start 2010 unemployed with $1000 in the bank. I borrow $200K at 8% and spend $180K. I end up with $21K in t he bank at the end of 2010 and still unemployed but with $216K of debt (after 1 year of interest). Hey look at me, I had a pretty good year huh, my savings went up.

That is exactly what is happening in the economy right now. It’s literally robbing yourself to pay yourself less than what you robbed.

angryed on January 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

1 quarter of fuzzy math = economic trend.

A few years out of a billion (give or take) of fuzzy science = global climate trend.

got it.

/s

In other news, even my goldfish remembers what the unemployment rate is and knows I had to move his fishbowl away from the window because its “frik’n freezing outside Mr. Bigglesworth!”

selias on January 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

I wonder what the numbers would have looked like if we didn’t have that Christmas thingy…?

Seven Percent Solution on January 29, 2010 at 11:37 AM

Side note: Talk about whether or not the stimulus worked pisses me off.

Whether or not it worked is meaningless. THE STIMULUS STOLE MONEY FROM THE FUTURE TO PROP UP THE PRESENT. And it did it in an extremely inefficient manner.

BadgerHawk on January 29, 2010 at 11:29 AM

Which is exactly why the White House needs to be called out on their lies when they continuously claim it is a success.

To allow them to get away with it like they did the “Bush lied” and the recession is “the Republican’s fault” only hurts conservatives.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:38 AM

However, almost two-thirds of it came from a slowdown in liquidation of inventories…

Manufacturers intentionally building up their inventories can be an indicator of economic growth. But if inventories increase because of lack of sales, this is a sign of stagnation.

And if that happens over the CHRISTMAS season, it’s time to shift your investment portfolio into shotguns and canned goods.

logis on January 29, 2010 at 11:38 AM


I’m not claiming the stimulus was a success.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:04 AM
Then what are you claiming when you say:

–What you’re not seeing in those numbers is increases in employment at the suppliers of the infrastructure. That company won’t be manufacturing or producing the infrastructure itself. It will have contracts with suppliers to make the infrastructure.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 10:50 AM

Total jobs added? According to them, 15 in 2009 and 27 in 2010. For $100 million. Am I supposed to cheer for that?

42 jobs for 100 million dollars and liberals are bragging about this.

$2,380,952.38 cost per job!!!!!!Baxter Greene

–What I’m claiming is the 42 jobs added number doesn’t include employees added at the suppliers.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:38 AM

Suppose I start 2010 unemployed with $1000 in the bank. I borrow $200K at 8% and spend $180K. I end up with $21K in t he bank at the end of 2010 and still unemployed but with $216K of debt (after 1 year of interest). Hey look at me, I had a pretty good year huh, my savings went up.

That is exactly what is happening in the economy right now. It’s literally robbing yourself to pay yourself less than what you robbed.

angryed on January 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

That hurt to read……it is true….that’s why it hurts.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:40 AM

We are seeing our vendors stocking less with backorders running 2 to 4 weeks. They unloaded the current inventory and have slowed on reorders from the manufacturers. My customers are waiting,and not looking elswhere, since the products are on national backorder.

faol on January 29, 2010 at 11:44 AM

These single data point references to the overall economy are misleading. While, out of context, it may be great news, it ignores the greater context of unemployment and home sales. Moreover, it ignores the uncertain way forward with regards to taxation and business development. The future is a big fat question mark for many and that is a cold hard fact that a simple rosy GDP can’t gloss over. But, Yayyyy anyway.

ted c on January 29, 2010 at 11:46 AM

–What I’m claiming is the 42 jobs added number doesn’t include employees added at the suppliers.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:38 AM

Jimbo3..I understand what you are claiming,that’s why I posted this.

You,nor I,and especially the White House have any idea whether surrounding businesses increased employment to help fill these orders.

I know many businesses that have cut hours cut off days of the work week to keep their people from being unemployed.

An increase in business pretty much “might” give them a full work week now.

The point is that success is being claimed by the White House based on deceitful reporting and manipulation of numbers.
Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:25 AM

We have no idea whether jobs were created to the surrounding businesses so, saying they are is pretty much an assumption.

Now we can just make up numbers like the White House does but I prefer to stick to the reality of the situation.

It would take a whole he!! of a lot of jobs to bring down over 2 million dollars of tax payer money per job to a reasonable number.

The White House paying out hundreds of thousands of dollars per job (average close to $300,000 per job nation wide when put up against the White House’s made up numbers)
just so they can brag about “jobs created” is doing nothing but politicizing the future of our economy.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:49 AM

The assumptioin seems to be that if inventory liquidation is slowing, that businesses are getting ready to start building them up.

An alternative explanation is that inventories are approaching rock bottom and can’t fall much further without hitting zero.

MarkTheGreat on January 29, 2010 at 11:49 AM

That is exactly what is happening in the economy right now. It’s literally robbing yourself to pay yourself less than what you robbed.

angryed on January 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

The difference is you cannot create money and screw all the creditors\savers, the federal government can.

WashJeff on January 29, 2010 at 11:50 AM

The economy will start to recover if the Democrats continue to fail to pass laws to kill it.

Count to 10 on January 29, 2010 at 11:51 AM

What I’m claiming is the 42 jobs added number doesn’t include employees added at the suppliers.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:38 AM

Probably because the suppliers aren’t hiring.

Odie1941 on January 29, 2010 at 11:53 AM

Jimbo3..I understand what you are claiming,that’s why I posted this.

You,nor I,and especially the White House have any idea whether surrounding businesses increased employment to help fill these orders.

I know many businesses that have cut hours cut off days of the work week to keep their people from being unemployed.

An increase in business pretty much “might” give them a full work week now.

The point is that success is being claimed by the White House based on deceitful reporting and manipulation of numbers.
Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:25 AM
We have no idea whether jobs were created to the surrounding businesses so, saying they are is pretty much an assumption.

Now we can just make up numbers like the White House does but I prefer to stick to the reality of the situation.

It would take a whole he!! of a lot of jobs to bring down over 2 million dollars of tax payer money per job to a reasonable number.

The White House paying out hundreds of thousands of dollars per job (average close to $300,000 per job nation wide when put up against the White House’s made up numbers)
just so they can brag about “jobs created” is doing nothing but politicizing the future of our economy.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:49 AM

–I doubt that, at this point, the suppliers have added any jobs. If the company is planning to add 27 jobs in 2010, it’s pretty good odds that the company hasn’t yet entered into any significant contacts for these products.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:53 AM

The assumptioin seems to be that if inventory liquidation is slowing, that businesses are getting ready to start building them up.
MarkTheGreat on January 29, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Or go under.

Electrongod on January 29, 2010 at 11:53 AM

No growth here. Here is the local macro view: County unemployment went up by .3% points or a 4.1% overall increase. The paper has 8-11 trustee house default notices daily, more than ever. The downtown store fronts are still 30-35% empty. The help wanted ads on Sunday are nonexistent (a single column).

Micro conditions: I have had no requests for quotations for over three months. I have had no new machine orders for over four months. I am down to a skeleton crew working part time (which I guess counts as a job saved as these people receive partial unemployment). Personally I haven’t taken a pay check for the last two months. It is a matter of months (weeks?) before I fold it up. Working for free to keep the doors open ain’t my idea of fun. Now with Obama if my hard work and not getting paid does roll into a large payoff later, the government will take it. The donks are killing every incentive I have to make jobs and stay in business.

jukin on January 29, 2010 at 11:55 AM

No growth here. Here is the local macro view: County unemployment went up by .3% points or a 4.1% overall increase. The paper has 8-11 trustee house default notices daily, more than ever. The downtown store fronts are still 30-35% empty. The help wanted ads on Sunday are nonexistent (a single column).

Micro conditions: I have had no requests for quotations for over three months. I have had no new machine orders for over four months. I am down to a skeleton crew working part time (which I guess counts as a job saved as these people receive partial unemployment). Personally I haven’t taken a pay check for the last two months. It is a matter of months (weeks?) before I fold it up. Working for free to keep the doors open ain’t my idea of fun. Now with Obama if my hard work and not getting paid does roll into a large payoff later, the government will take it. The donks are killing every incentive I have to make jobs and stay in business.

jukin on January 29, 2010 at 11:55 AM

–What metro areas are you in (if you feel comfortable sharing that information)?

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:58 AM

An alternative explanation is that inventories are approaching rock bottom and can’t fall much further without hitting zero.

MarkTheGreat on January 29, 2010 at 11:49 AM

I agree….

Every business I know has had to cut major jobs,inventories,and thoughts of any expansion due to the bad economy and the policies being put forth by Mr. “only 8% unemployment if you give us a trillion dollars”.

My accounts pretty much say the same thing every week…
…”just trying to get by”….”We are able to keep the bills paid,that’s about it”……

….business’s are at bare bones now with profits way down.
…for many,the only movement can be up because they can’t go down any further without going out of business.


Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 10:43 AM

….now I am basing this on what “I” see day to day at my accounts.

They have been all about “cuts and reduction” and have more planned if consumer spending does not increase.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:59 AM

–I doubt that, at this point, the suppliers have added any jobs. If the company is planning to add 27 jobs in 2010, it’s pretty good odds that the company hasn’t yet entered into any significant contacts for these products.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 11:53 AM

So there is no need to claim or include in any calculations “added” jobs that have not been added and that we have no idea if they will be added as far as the suppliers go.

The jobs number of 42 could be suspect as well considering the massive manipulation and deceitful practices that the White House has engaged in to find something to brag about.

One good example of this is the Caterpillar factory that Obama made a big deal about during his campaign.

He has not been back because his claims were found bogus and they have laid off more since his grand statements of success and “smart power”.

The White House does so much shucking and jiving with the numbers that we have no idea what they really are and if they are telling the truth……

……….which is just the way they want it.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:06 PM

So there is no need to claim or include in any calculations “added” jobs that have not been added and that we have no idea if they will be added as far as the suppliers go.

The jobs number of 42 could be suspect as well considering the massive manipulation and deceitful practices that the White House has engaged in to find something to brag about.

–The 42 number is probably in the business plan/proposal it submitted to the government to get the grant. But $100 million is alot of money. I’d be surprised if the suppliers didn’t have to do some hiring.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 12:09 PM

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 11:49 AM

To save our nation, someone in the major networks has to have an epiphany.

We need a nightly “Sixty Minutes” show concentrating on the truth of what all the statist programs have done to our nation and where we are going now.

It would get ratings if it had some of these posters run the agenda. To put it in their terms, Fox is proving that right wing lunacy gets ratings. (Don’t mention that it is not lunacy as their collectively warped brains can’t get around some aspects of reality.)

I know. I’m not holding my breath.

IlikedAUH2O on January 29, 2010 at 12:12 PM

O/T but just another example of the deceitfulness and lies coming from liberals to push their agenda:

Scientists broke the law by hiding climate change data: But legal loophole means they won’t be prosecuted

By David Derbyshire
Last updated at 11:21 PM on 28th January 2010

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1246661/New-scandal-Climate-Gate-scientists-accused-hiding-data-global-warming-sceptics.html#ixzz0e1Re7LWK

Scientist at the heart of the ‘Climategate’ email scandal broke the law when they refused to give raw data to the public, the privacy watchdog has ruled.

The Information Commissioner’s office said University of East Anglia researchers breached the Freedom of Information Act when handling requests from climate change sceptics.

….Man Made Global Warming is the biggest scam ever perpetuated on a society.

…Al Gore and the rest of these eco-fundamentalist should be locked up for this massive fraud.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:14 PM

–The 42 number is probably in the business plan/proposal it submitted to the government to get the grant. But $100 million is alot of money. I’d be surprised if the suppliers didn’t have to do some hiring.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 12:09 PM

You are right…I would be surprised if somebody did not hire somebody.

This is just a God awful lot of mine and your money to do it.

Not my idea of “smart”.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:16 PM

We need a nightly “Sixty Minutes” show concentrating on the truth of what all the statist programs have done to our nation and where we are going now.

IlikedAUH2O on January 29, 2010 at 12:12 PM

I would love to see this….

It would need a bi-partisan panel who are fact checked by “X” amount of think tanks(voting records and any political affiliations would be disclosed).

Then their findings would be reviewed on the Internet and the next show to prove credibility.

……..something we know activists that pose as journalist will refuse to partake in.

Great idea..

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:20 PM

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 12:09 PM

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:16 PM

Your ongoing conversation is amusing me greatly.

BadgerHawk on January 29, 2010 at 12:23 PM

We are seeing our vendors stocking less with backorders running 2 to 4 weeks. They unloaded the current inventory and have slowed on reorders from the manufacturers. My customers are waiting,and not looking elswhere, since the products are on national backorder.

faol on January 29, 2010 at 11:44 AM
—–
The entire American business climate is very tense – waiting to see what happens next. Even a return to gridlock would be beneficial at this point.

Mew

acat on January 29, 2010 at 12:28 PM

Politically, this could not come at a better time for Obama. He wants to move forward on jobs in the same direction as Porkulus, and these numbers will lend credence to his argument that his policies are the correct cure for the economy.

Strategery.

I’ve seen a lot of “the stimulus worked but it was too small” talk on other sites. The original expectations of 8% unemployment rate have been swept under the rug and now the talk is that without the stimulus the rate would have been 10.7% instead of its now 10% – or something.

Progressives have their marching orders and they are in lock step on so called neutral blogs (otherwise known as MSM blog).

Mr_Magoo on January 29, 2010 at 12:33 PM

Then their findings would be reviewed on the Internet and the next show to prove credibility.

……..something we know activists that pose as journalist will refuse to partake in.

Great idea..

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:20 PM

I have thought since the SocSec debate in 2005, that it would be good for one or two key people from ewach party to have a debate on a single topic and air it in prime time. I thought if the facts of SocSec were laid on the table, the conservative ideas of privatization would gain more traction. Do it for health care, education, etc.

WashJeff on January 29, 2010 at 12:33 PM

This number has to be revised downward. Book it. Not merely because every other number in the last year has been revised downward, but because if they don’t get revised down, the news 3 months from now is certain to be: “1Q is negative, double dip has begun.” Maobama can’t have that.

These gov’t #s are totally untrustworthy; their only purpose is to manipulate you.

james23 on January 29, 2010 at 12:36 PM

The big question is what GDP growth was after taking out monetary inflation by the Fed. That would be a buzz-killer, though, so we’ll just pretend it doesn’t matter for a while.

neurosculptor on January 29, 2010 at 12:37 PM

Whatever happened to Obama’s trickle up economic theory? Didn’t he say during the campaign that trickle down hasn’t worked so we’re going to do trickle up? Has anyone gotten a job from a poor person yet?

Mr_Magoo on January 29, 2010 at 12:38 PM

Obama making hay already as reported on Tapper’s blog:

At a small business in Chesapeake, Maryland President Obama today said that the 5.7% jump in GDP last quarter “affirms” the progress in the economy.

“Today, we’ve stopped the flood of job losses. We’ve stabilized the financial system. And we can safely say that we’ve avoided that looming depression,” the president said of the GDP numbers, “we received a report that affirms our progress and the swift and aggressive actions that made it possible.”

The messiah is back baby!

Mr_Magoo on January 29, 2010 at 12:41 PM

, the conservative ideas of privatization would gain more traction. Do it for health care, education, etc.

WashJeff on January 29, 2010 at 12:33 PM

unfortunately….this is why “Pravda West” would never do it.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:49 PM

Expect a steady GDP growth of 3% and slightly improved employment situation (assume 8% and trending better).

blink

So you’re expecting a few million jobs to be created between now and November?

xblade on January 29, 2010 at 12:50 PM

“Today, we’ve stopped the flood of job losses. We’ve stabilized the financial system. And we can safely say that we’ve avoided that looming depression,” the president said of the GDP numbers, “we received a report that affirms our progress and the swift and aggressive actions that made it possible.”

The messiah is back baby!

Mr_Magoo on January 29, 2010 at 12:41 PM

“Mission Accomplished”……

Obama will regret jumping on this as a hallmark that everything is now better.

That is not what this 5.7% GDP report is saying.

“Today, we’ve stopped the flood of job losses.

We will remember this come November….he!! come the end of the month when the jobs report comes out…..

…..keep bragging Obama….keep digging that grave.

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:53 PM

Your ongoing conversation is amusing me greatly.

BadgerHawk on January 29, 2010 at 12:23 PM

Glad we could help!!

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:54 PM

Our standard of living has risen 25 percent over the past year. All over Oceania workers are parading through the streets with banners voicing their gratitude to Big Brother for the new happy life which his great and wise leadership has bestowed.

KentAllard on January 29, 2010 at 1:14 PM

xblade on January 29, 2010 at 12:50 PM

Good question. Too many people on the right are under the assumption that the improvements in the economy will be just enough to help Obama win a second term. Also, that the Right can NEVER compete on economic issues.

Bollocks. 10.2% Unemployment and 4 million jobs lost in 2009 tend to be figures that have a certain…stickiness to them that long outlasts the timeframe in which those numbers were generated. People will still be concerned about the economy on 11/6/12, and will vote out Obama accordingly. Without much prodding from the Right beyond repeating the above figures ad nauseam.

BradSchwartze on January 29, 2010 at 1:18 PM

The Ministry of Plenty has announced the overproduction of widgets by 483,961,202 for the fourth quarter of the Eight Year Plan.

KentAllard on January 29, 2010 at 1:19 PM

“Mission Accomplished”……

Obama will regret jumping on this as a hallmark that everything is now better.

That is not what this 5.7% GDP report is saying.

You know what to do, fellow conservatives.

BradSchwartze on January 29, 2010 at 1:20 PM

Hmmmm…. soooo…

Neither consumer debt increases, nor Gov Debt deficit spending counts against the GDP…

Thus, the 1.8 TRILLION of deficit spending by the Gov… artificialy increases the GDP…

If we take out JUST the stimulus… we are once more in negative growth numbers…

Romeo13 on January 29, 2010 at 1:32 PM

More correct headline:

Fourth-quarter GDP 5.7% Despite Obama Efforts

cntrlfrk on January 29, 2010 at 1:34 PM

This will be revised in about three weeks. Consider the source and in all likelihood it pure BS. Forget the proof, its lost with the grades and the birth certificate.

As I have said many times this president is a bona fide liar

bluegrass on January 29, 2010 at 1:35 PM

Politically, this could not come at a better time for Obama. He wants to move forward on jobs in the same direction as Porkulus, and these numbers will lend credence to his argument that his policies are the correct cure for the economy. But a 2.2% rate of real growth won’t be enough to get capital back in the game, especially under the business conditions set by the high-spending, high-regulating, high-taxing agenda in Congress.

That can work both ways. The Obama administration and the Congress has stated that all this spending is necessary to revive growth, well, if the case can be made that growth is there, then why continue to pump money into the economy via the federal government?

Terrye on January 29, 2010 at 1:35 PM

Suppose I start 2010 unemployed with $1000 in the bank. I borrow $200K at 8% and spend $180K. I end up with $21K in t he bank at the end of 2010 and still unemployed but with $216K of debt (after 1 year of interest). Hey look at me, I had a pretty good year huh, my savings went up.

That is exactly what is happening in the economy right now. It’s literally robbing yourself to pay yourself less than what you robbed.

angryed on January 29, 2010 at 11:35 AM

There is a term for folks who do this:

Paper Hanger.

BobMbx on January 29, 2010 at 1:37 PM

Your ongoing conversation is amusing me greatly.

BadgerHawk on January 29, 2010 at 12:23 PM
Glad we could help!!

Baxter Greene on January 29, 2010 at 12:54 PM

–And feel free to jump on in.

Jimbo3 on January 29, 2010 at 1:52 PM

Given that during the Bush years, GDP was consistently initially mis-reported to the detriment of the administration, and subsequently Barry has gotten a favorable initial mis-report, what is the Under / Over on what the revised GDP number will be in 3 weeks…

I’m putting it at 4.4%

phreshone on January 29, 2010 at 2:24 PM

Isnt the GDP a joke of a number anyways, kind of like the Unemployment rate?

If every business stopped producing for a year, they would run out of supplies, then they would start producing, making this leap in GDP.

If businesses send pink slips to half of their work force, making the unemployment 50%, when all unemployment funds are exhausted, we will have a 5% unemployment, though none were hired back, half looking for work would still be unemployed.

My point is, at some point the numbers reset to 0. Unemployment has to fall, high numbers are impossible to sustain, unless the Federal Government pays unlimited weeks of compensation.

GDP has to rise, low numbers are impossible to sustain, unless all spending stops.

Maybe I am wrong.

WoosterOh on January 29, 2010 at 3:15 PM

Inventory manipulation? Is that kind of like when you eat half a box of doughnuts then cut the remaining ones into two pieces?

Good4Onan on January 29, 2010 at 3:48 PM

Prepare for the double dip, my friends.

Dominion on January 29, 2010 at 6:29 PM

On the bright side, Feb. 5th the Dept. of Labor will adjust unemployment UP 825,000 from last years figures…Good Times… /s

Jeff2161 on January 29, 2010 at 10:43 PM

When my piggy bank holding went from a nickel to a dime, I scored a 100% increase. 5% growth for an economy deep in the hole may not mean so much and it may have come from the government assuming a very large debt to create that glimmer of falsehood.

bayview on January 30, 2010 at 1:51 AM

Good4Onan on January 29, 2010 at 3:48 PM

No one give a shit what you think charles johnson

daesleeper on January 30, 2010 at 2:03 AM

Think it’s time for the double-dip to hit?

{^_^}

herself on January 30, 2010 at 6:32 AM

Based on the last Quarter’s estimation, that was overstated by almost 60%,

I predict, the final number, after revision, to be..

3.6%

You read it here first

franksalterego on January 30, 2010 at 9:36 AM

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