At this point, Hamas certainly knows what "or else" means, even if it's implied rather than stated outright. If not, perhaps the Iranian regime can enlighten them by showing pictures of Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Donald Trump issued the veiled threat yesterday in a statement that some took as a declaration of a 60-day cease-fire in Gaza. That is not what Trump actually wrote on Truth Social yesterday evening, however. Trump declared that Israel had approved a temporary pause, and that the ball was in Hamas' court:
My Representatives had a long and productive meeting with the Israelis today on Gaza. Israel has agreed to the necessary conditions to finalize the 60 Day CEASEFIRE, during which time we will work with all parties to end the War. The Qataris and Egyptians, who have worked very hard to help bring Peace, will deliver this final proposal. I hope, for the good of the Middle East, that Hamas takes this Deal, because it will not get better — IT WILL ONLY GET WORSE. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
In other words, this is as far as Trump plans to push the Israelis without more concessions from Hamas. And if they don't start dealing honestly, well ... Trump has already made clear how he deals with people who won't deal honestly. That's especially the case with terror regimes that target and kill Americans.
The Times of Israel caught the nuance that some others missed in this message. Trump may be implying a stick with Hamas, but also implies a carrot as well -- that he'll lean on the Israelis to end the war if negotiations go well:
There was no immediate comment from Israeli officials on Trump’s post, which appeared to be referring to a proposal for a temporary ceasefire that has been discussed over the past several months. Those talks have been at an impasse, largely over the terms for what happens at the end of that truce, with Israel demanding that it maintain the ability to resume fighting, while Hamas wants the temporary ceasefire to become permanent.
In declaring that he will “work to end the war,” Trump apparently was trying to appease both sides, mentioning an end to the war without speaking definitively.
Despite the announcement from Trump, an official from one of the Arab mediating countries told The Times of Israel that major hurdles remain and that the sides will still need to hold proximity talks in order to close remaining gaps.
The Israelis confirmed today that they would go along with Trump's proposal -- if Hamas accepted it as is:
"We are serious in our will to reach a hostage deal and a ceasefire," Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar said during a press briefing while on a state visit to Estonia. "We said yes to Special Envoy Witkoff’s proposals."
Saar did not elaborate on details of the proposal but added that "our goal is to begin proximity talks as soon as possible."
So what could go wrong?
The problem with this is that Hamas is a dead-ender terror network. That has always been the case, but perhaps it's even more true now than ever. The Iranian regime is cut off, Syria is about to make peace with Israel, Hezbollah is about to get kicked out of Lebanon, and the Israelis won't release the Philadelphi Corridor until they settle everything else. Hamas can't survive as a coherent entity if it has to pull out of Gaza, and their ideology won't allow them to do that anyway. The same brittle ideology drives the Iranian regime, and it's why that will have to collapse before finding anyone in Iran who will actually negotiate in good faith for peace and non-proliferation.
But even if Hamas were inclined to end its decades-long efforts to annihilate Israel, its position is still untenable. The Saudis are reportedly insisting that Israel finish the job against Hamas first before any normalization can take place:
Saudi Arabia is insisting that Israel finish the job in Gaza by removing Hamas from power completely in the coastal enclave as a precondition for a normalization agreement with the Jewish State, a Saudi source told i24NEWS.
The source, who is reportedly close to the royal court, told Middle East correspondent Ariel Oseran that, "Without removing Hamas, there will be no peace."
According to the report, the Saudi government hopes the Palestinian Authority, led by Mahmoud Abbas, will be restored to power in Gaza after the fall of the Hamas government.
Why would the Saudis insist on this as a condition for full normalization? Simple: as long as Hamas remains in Gaza, they will continue to start wars with Israel. Saudi Arabia does not want to be seen as taking the side of Israelis in wars against Arabs (Iranians are another matter altogether). This is an absolutely clear-eyed view of the situation by the Saudis, and perhaps the wisest pressure point yet coming from the Arab world. And now that the US and Israel has defenestrated Iran, Qatar in particular may be more inclined to align itself with Riyadh than Tehran these days.
Still, that leaves us back to the main conundrum, which is that Hamas will never just surrender power and give up its turf. So expect the "WORSE" 'or else' to come, sooner rather than later. Trump has had enough of this war, too, but he's not going to let Hamas off the hook for it.
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