Coakley: Polls are inaccurate

And now, a public-service announcement on behalf of the Scott Brown campaign by … Martha Coakley?

Speaking with reporters after rallying union members at the IBEW Local 103 here, MA AG Martha Coakley (D) questioned the accuracy of polls showing her losing to state Sen. Scott Brown (R).

“Every race has its own dynamic,” Coakley said. “We had a tough primary. I came out of that primary ahead. I might note that many of the polls during that primary were totally inaccurate.”

“We think the polls are inaccurate,” she continued. “It’s just very difficult to figure out in a short race, special election, in a state race we’ve never had before. So until those votes are counted tomorrow, I don’t think anybody knows what’s going to happen.”

Well, what did anyone expect her to say?  I’m so far behind that even my shadow is ahead of me?  In trials, one argues the facts if the facts support them, the law if the law supports them, and attacks the witnesses if neither is true.  This is Coakley attacking the witnesses, which include some on her own side.

Nonetheless, Coakley does make a good point.  The most accurate poll is the one taken at the ballot box.  Special elections are hard to poll, because the turnout models are so unusual — but in this case, even the most generous of turnout models show her losing, albeit narrowly.  Pollsters have hit the entire range of turnout models, from a +14.6% Democrat advantage all the way to a +23.5, roughly the same as the Presidential election that lifted Barack Obama to a 26-point win in the Bay State.  Every one of them has Coakley trailing.

Brown supporters should take Coakley’s advice and get to the polls, just to be sure of the victory tonight.  In order for these polls to be accurate, it takes a big effort to fulfill their prophecy.  If you’re in Massachusetts, use this thread to talk about your experiences at the polls today and to encourage others to get their vote counted.