New DSCC poll shows five-point lead for Brown

posted at 8:48 am on January 19, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

Last week, the DSCC jumped into the Massachusetts special election on behalf of Martha Coakley to improve her “messaging.”  Their first impact on the race came when Michael Meehan assaulted reporter John McCormack, which was captured on videotape and by an AP reporter … not exactly improving Coakley’s chances.  Later in the week, they used an image of the World Trade Center to demonize Wall Street and Scott Brown, and had to quickly pull back the TV ad in order to fix it.  Today, Pollster.com’s Mark Blumenthal publishes that a DSCC leaker tells him that Scott Brown is leading in their internal polling by five points, emphasis mine (via Geoff A):

Does the nationalization of the Massachusetts Senate race combined with the heavy negative advertising blitz qualify as the same sort of last minute surprise? Perhaps, but it seems like a stretch to me. …

Yes, the internal Coakley campaign poll numbers that have leaked out show a dead even race and perhaps a slight improvement over last week. However, there was more than one internal poll conducted by Democrats[.] A little birdie tells me that the final tracking survey conducted by the Mellman Group for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee had Brown ahead by five points.

So for me it boils down to this: I was a Democratic consultant for long enough to want to believe that Coakley can still prevail, and there is still a remote chance that the polls in this race will be as misleading as they were in New Hampshire. However, my head is not my heart. Barring another polling meltdown, Scott Brown is the likely winner.

Be sure to read the entire post, as Blumenthal more or less buries the lede here while explaining that the counter arguments to all of the polling really don’t hold water.  The DSCC leak was given as support for his argument, as an admission against interests by the DSCC — and by extension, as Blumenthal rightly discloses, by himself, too.

If the DSCC’s own internal pollster has Brown still ascending and ahead by five points, probably still using a somewhat-optimistic turnout model, then the bottom has almost certainly fallen out for Coakley.  And that will impact the turnout model even more negatively for Coakley, especially in bad weather that will plague Massachusetts today.  Brown voters will joyously stream to the polls, while Coakley supporters won’t be inspired at all to bother.

For our friends in Massachusetts, just remember that the game isn’t over until the votes are cast.  Be sure to make your voices heard today, because it will make the powerful tremble in Washington DC.

Update: Who could have done a worse job in messaging than the DSCC?  Perhaps its sister committee for the House, the DCCC, which tried tying Brown to George Bush but instead invoked Ted Kennedy in the worst possible way (via Instapundit):

“Why would you hand the keys to the car back to the same guys whose policies drove the economy into the ditch and then walked away from the scene of the accident?”

That’s Chris Van Hollen, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, meaning to help Coakley win Teddy Kennedy’s seat, and running right off the road into a ditch called Chappaquiddick.

Update II: The weather isn’t as bad as predicted, especially in the more pro-Brown areas.

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Comment pages: 1 2

Snowing all over Mass and NH now:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=BOX&product=NCR&overlay=11101111&loop=yes

The preponderance of polls show Brown ahead. This is one more piece of confirmation. The rally attendance said it clearly, especially the bit about closing off half the middle school gym with its dividing curtain, so that it might look more full for Obama.

The video Ed showed of the attendees was also inspiring. Did any of them know who Coakley was? Hey Ed, can we get links to those vids?

dogsoldier on January 19, 2010 at 9:35 AM

Del Dolemonte on January 19, 2010 at 9:32 AM

I have not seen a single ad that would sway me if (I was on the fence) in the last two weeks. They have all smelled like desperate smear attempts, nothing comparing stances on issues that really make a difference to a majority of voters.

Mord on January 19, 2010 at 9:36 AM

PLEASE SEND SCOTT $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ FOR LEGAL CHALLENGES

OmahaConservative on January 19, 2010 at 9:36 AM

What is the ACORN SEIU voter fraud margin of error? Anyone care to handicap the race?

R Square on January 19, 2010 at 9:37 AM

Good thing the GOP now controls the weather to help boost turnout.

JammieWearingFool on January 19, 2010 at 8:50 AM

VRWC

antisocial on January 19, 2010 at 9:38 AM

R Square on January 19, 2010 at 9:37 AM

I would guess virtually zero. No time to prepare. EVERYONE was caught by surprise here. There are off-duty police at every polling station.

Mord on January 19, 2010 at 9:39 AM

My conundrum:

Even though I would be but a single viewer, should I indulge myself by watching Keith Olbermann explain the MA election results to me – even if by so doing I would be creating a massive upward ‘spike’ to his viewership percentages?

alwyr on January 19, 2010 at 9:02 AM
______________________________________________
We give you permission as long as you give the rest of us a full report! :)

Thanks for being brave!

Oink on January 19, 2010 at 9:05 AM

Oink: I’m also reviving my blind account on Daily Kos so as to post a comment or 2 later on this evening. I expect to get bounced in VERY short order, but it’s always fun to torment fools.

alwyr on January 19, 2010 at 9:41 AM

I would guess virtually zero. No time to prepare. EVERYONE was caught by surprise here. There are off-duty police at every polling station.

Mord on January 19, 2010 at 9:39 AM

And the Police endorsed Brown…Sweet. No truncheon carrying Black Panthers hanging around I’d bet.

Oldnuke on January 19, 2010 at 9:43 AM

I love how Rove waits until the last possible moment to crank up the Weather Machine.
Very dramatic.
Go Scott!

jjshaka on January 19, 2010 at 9:46 AM

Nice to know that the course of human history is predicated upon the vagaries of the fluctuating weather patterns in the greater Boston area.

Geochelone on January 19, 2010 at 9:47 AM

Dude, the south end of everything leans liberal. gnome sayin?

Geochelone on January 19, 2010 at 9:23 AM

Not the south end of the US…

bernzright777 on January 19, 2010 at 9:50 AM

Not the south The South end of the US…

bernzright777 on January 19, 2010 at 9:50 AM

ladyingray on January 19, 2010 at 9:51 AM

John Fund is expecting a ‘clean’ race w/o voter fraud since they (ACORN) never dreamt they would be needed, and then it was too late to organize. Prayers ascending that he is right……

OmahaConservative on January 19, 2010 at 9:54 AM

OT: I see it reported that Ohio’s Voinovich is visiting the White House. WTF? After all this, that weasle is going to sell out the GOP on health care in his final 10 months?

BuckeyeSam on January 19, 2010 at 9:17 AM

Oh good lord. Where did you see this story?

KeepOhioRed on January 19, 2010 at 9:55 AM

Dude, the south end of everything leans liberal. gnome sayin?

Geochelone on January 19, 2010 at 9:23 AM

Not the south end of the US…

bernzright777 on January 19, 2010 at 9:50 AM

Well you are speaking geographically with a capital S. I am speaking figuratively with a lower case; as in “the south end of a DONK”.

No offense to Southerners of course. :)

Geochelone on January 19, 2010 at 9:57 AM

Dude, the south end of everything leans liberal. gnome sayin?
Geochelone on January 19, 2010 at 9:23 AM

Come on down to the Magnolia State, ol’ buddy.

kingsjester on January 19, 2010 at 9:57 AM

Prepare to be disappointed.

True_King on January 19, 2010 at 9:57 AM

We had a liberal in Mississippi. But Shep lives in New York City now.

kingsjester on January 19, 2010 at 9:58 AM

We had a liberal in Mississippi. But Shep lives in New York City now.

kingsjester on January 19, 2010 at 9:58 AM

hehe, just one? I wish I could say the same but I am in CA.

Geochelone on January 19, 2010 at 10:00 AM

True_King on January 19, 2010 at 9:57 AM

Thank you, Eeyore. Oh, bother.

kingsjester on January 19, 2010 at 10:00 AM

Did this poll also take into account ACORN, out-of-state SEIU members, and the throngs of dead people who will be voting for Coaklet?

Vic on January 19, 2010 at 10:00 AM

Geochelone on January 19, 2010 at 10:00 AM

I keed. I keed. Childers is my Rep(D), who falsely claims to be a Moderate. He wouldn’t answer his phones during the Healthcare Vote. Go figure.

kingsjester on January 19, 2010 at 10:02 AM

BuckeyeSam on January 19, 2010 at 9:17 AM

Voinovich and Bunting feel like they have been treated badly by the Republicans. Excellent traitor material since neither have to face constituents again.

Cindy Munford on January 19, 2010 at 10:02 AM

I have never been more excited for an election than this one, and I’m nowhere near Mass.

GO BROWN

Chuck Schick on January 19, 2010 at 10:03 AM

The Obama Effect:

http://jumpinginpools.blogspot.com/2010/01/obama-effect-results-from-his.html

UnderstandingisPower on January 19, 2010 at 10:04 AM

“Why would you hand the keys to the car back to the same guys whose policies drove the economy into the ditch and then walked away from the scene of the accident?”

That’s Chris Van Hollen, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, meaning to help Coakley win Teddy Kennedy’s seat, and running right off the road into a ditch called Chappaquiddick.

That quote confirms that the Dumbocrats, as a breed, are inbred.

GrannyDee on January 19, 2010 at 10:13 AM

ladyingray on January 19, 2010 at 9:51 AM

Nice correction, lady :)

Well, the South end of a northbound cow certainly leans liberal.

mikeyboss on January 19, 2010 at 10:24 AM

OT: I see it reported that Ohio’s Voinovich is visiting the White House. WTF? After all this, that weasle is going to sell out the GOP on health care in his final 10 months?

BuckeyeSam on January 19, 2010 at 9:17 AM

Hi, BuckeyeSam. I live in Voinovich’s county. In the past, he’s always been a strong voice for conservatism and I always supported him. Lately though, with his retirement from the Senate this year, he’s been waffling more and more. Along with you, I sure do wonder why George is going to the WH.

BTW, I’m supporting Tom Ganley to fill the Senate seat in Ohio.

GrannyDee on January 19, 2010 at 10:27 AM

Intrade is moving against us:

Brown 67 -10.1
Coakley 35 +10.1

Does somebody know something?

Dale on January 19, 2010 at 10:32 AM

Chris Van Hollen is my congresscritter. Woohoo!

P.S. Kennedy or not, that’s the way we drive in Montgomery County, MD.

Attila (Pillage Idiot) on January 19, 2010 at 10:41 AM

Pins and needles….

GO SCOTT!

PattyJ on January 19, 2010 at 10:55 AM

…the game isn’t over until the votes are cast. found in boxes in storage rooms are counted and Brown is still ahead.

FIFY

mwdiver on January 19, 2010 at 11:52 AM

IN CONGRESS, JULY 4, 1776
The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America

When in the Course of human events it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with another and to assume among the powers of the earth, the separate and equal station to which the Laws of Nature and of Nature’s God entitle them, a decent respect to the opinions of mankind requires that they should declare the causes which impel them to the separation.

We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness. — That to secure these rights, Governments are instituted among Men, deriving their just powers from the consent of the governed, — That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government, laying its foundation on such principles and organizing its powers in such form, as to them shall seem most likely to effect their Safety and Happiness. Prudence, indeed, will dictate that Governments long established should not be changed for light and transient causes; and accordingly all experience hath shewn that mankind are more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security. — Such has been the patient sufferance of these Colonies; and such is now the necessity which constrains them to alter their former Systems of Government. The history of the present King of Great Britain is a history of repeated injuries and usurpations, all having in direct object the establishment of an absolute Tyranny over these States. To prove this, let Facts be submitted to a candid world.

In every stage of these Oppressions We have Petitioned for Redress in the most humble terms: Our repeated Petitions have been answered only by repeated injury. A Prince, whose character is thus marked by every act which may define a Tyrant, is unfit to be the ruler of a free people.

Nor have We been wanting in attentions to our British brethren. We have warned them from time to time of attempts by their legislature to extend an unwarrantable jurisdiction over us. We have reminded them of the circumstances of our emigration and settlement here. We have appealed to their native justice and magnanimity, and we have conjured them by the ties of our common kindred to disavow these usurpations, which would inevitably interrupt our connections and correspondence. They too have been deaf to the voice of justice and of consanguinity. We must, therefore, acquiesce in the necessity, which denounces our Separation, and hold them, as we hold the rest of mankind, Enemies in War, in Peace Friends.

We, therefore, the Representatives of the united States of America, in General Congress, Assembled, appealing to the Supreme Judge of the world for the rectitude of our intentions, do, in the Name, and by Authority of the good People of these Colonies, solemnly publish and declare, That these united Colonies are, and of Right ought to be Free and Independent States, that they are Absolved from all Allegiance to the British Crown, and that all political connection between them and the State of Great Britain, is and ought to be totally dissolved; and that as Free and Independent States, they have full Power to levy War, conclude Peace, contract Alliances, establish Commerce, and to do all other Acts and Things which Independent States may of right do. — And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of Divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes, and our sacred Honor.</strong>

— John Hancock
http://www.ushistory.org/Declaration/document/

lovingmyUSA on January 19, 2010 at 12:16 PM

Dang. Only 3 post ago I got that Democrat internal polling says he’ll lose by 1. Then this post saying the DSCC has him up by 5. This is just stupid. Forget the polling. MA Republicans and Indies, just go out and vote for Brown. Enough said.

Sultry Beauty on January 19, 2010 at 1:38 PM

Up by 5? DSCC FTW!!

Sultry Beauty on January 20, 2010 at 1:22 AM

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