Now that the Memorandum of Understanding has been released—actually read to reporters, and we have the transcripts generated from that oral release—we know that one of the biggest points Iran demanded was that Israel quit fighting Hezbollah and exit Lebanon.
Not even Lebanon agrees to that, as Hezbollah is an occupying power. They want a resolution of the war as well, but reject the claim of sovereignty that Iran is making to Lebanon. And make no mistake, that is what they are doing, and Lebanon is not happy about it.
Whatever the case, Iran demanded that the very first commitment made by the United States was to reign in Israel and get them out of Lebanon, and apparently the Trump administration agreed.
The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran have jointly agreed in good faith on [ __ date] on the following:
1 — The United States of America and the Islamic Republic of Iran and their allies in the current war are signing this MOU to declare the immediate and permanent termination of military operations on all fronts, including in Lebanon, and undertake from now on not to initiate any war or any military operation against each other, and to refrain from the threat or use of force against each other, and ensuring the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Lebanon. The final deal will confirm the permanent termination of the war on all fronts, including in Lebanon and other provisions of this paragraph.
Iran considers Hezbollah—indeed all of the "Axis of Resistance," to be equivalent to Iran. Which means that every time Israel and Hezbollah clash, it is, apparently, a violation of the MOU from their perspective.
Of course, clashes between Israel and Hezbollah are inevitable, and you can bet all your money that Iran will want Hezbollah to make "limited" attacks to test Israeli responses and to drive a wedge between Trump and Bibi.
And, you can further bet that Iran will, at times, use those clashes as an excuse to make "minor" attacks on shipping or on other targets. Not above the threshold where full-scale war will resume, but more along the lines of what it did during the "cease-fire." It will also, as implied in the MOU, start charging transit fees in some arrangement with Oman, which will jointly manage the Strait after 30-60 days.
The Lebanon issue is Iran's trump card. 'Violations" of the cease-fire there are unavoidable. Trump will pressure Israel not to respond to Hezbollah, as he tried just prior to the signing of the MOU on Sunday, and Iran can use the issue to drive a wedge between our countries.
That is especially true if Iran does what it has done in the days since Sunday—fire at ships in the Gulf. It is not widely reported, but Iran has continued to harass ships in the Gulf.
Iran has fired multiple drones at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Iran signed the MOU, a US official told NBC News.
— Bracha (@brachahalperin) June 16, 2026
The official said the IRGC has been launching drones every night, and the US military has been shooting them down before they can… pic.twitter.com/zKJxXwFYkX
Iran has fired multiple drones at commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz since the US and Iran signed the MOU, a US official told NBC News.
The official said the IRGC has been launching drones every night, and the US military has been shooting them down before they can threaten ships in the area.
These are, essentially, warning shots to the US, making us take out the drones, and increasing the sense of risk for everybody involved. A reminder that Iran has an ace up its sleeve.
By claiming that any attack on Hezbollah is an attack on Iran, and that Israel is bound by the MOU, Iran can claim that any shenanigans in the Gulf are a result of Israel violating the terms. It need not "close" the Strait entirely to maintain leverage; it merely has to remind everyone, with warning shots, that it can.
It's a two-fer for them. They drive a wedge between Israel and America, making them the bad guy threatening the world economy, and maintaining maximum leverage for...who knows how long?
Trump wants this deal. He has made clear that he is very unhappy with Israel. Which suggests that he will pressure them to hold back. They won't because they can't.
What happens next? Nothing good, I would bet.
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