Terminally online political geeks like me (and probably you) were mostly frustrated by the debate and fear it may help Kamala Harris and hurt Donald Trump. 

I don't know if you agree with me on this, but by most measures, Trump blew the debate, and Harris greatly overperformed. On points, she won because she got Trump distracted and lured him into defending himself on totally irrelevant issues such as the crowd size at his rallies. 

Who cares? 

Trump does, and way too much. 

But chances are that what you, I, and political pundits were focused on didn't matter that much. Lots of the voters who will decide this election really don't care that much about what the candidates SAY or even how they say it. They are focused on inflation, the economy, and illegal immigration. 

In reality, Harris' only strong answer that could move votes was on the issue of abortion, where Republicans are behind the 8-ball. No matter how much explaining, pleading, moral suasion, or providing of nuanced answers, a majority of voters, including the all-important swing voters, are on Kamala's side, or at least think so. They don't believe the truth about late-term abortions, and we can't convince them. If you want to convince people one-by-one, ask them to read this, but don't expect reality to intrude into election politics. 

I'm reposting this Atlantic story about late term abortion because:

1) I think people some people confused me as defending Trump's statement about after-birth abortion and that's not true.

2) He performs abortions through 32 weeks, shy of 9 months. https://t.co/1D1ooJaaMc

— Zaid Jilani (@ZaidJilani) September 11, 2024

Trump didn't win the debate on points--not even close in my humble opinion--but I doubt that this matters. Harris met the bar of being a credible candidate, but that is unlikely to save her candidacy. (Although Trump could have taken any of a number of opportunities to put her candidacy away and failed to do so). 

The reason? Americans are unhappy about the direction of the country, worried about inflation, and believe that illegal migrants are flooding the country. No amount of happy talk can change that fact. And Kamala gave them no reason to see her as a change agent.

Independent voters surprise pollster with reactions to Trump's debate performance: 'Didn't expect it' https://t.co/ma0Nk5voJ3

— Fox News (@FoxNews) September 11, 2024

Frank Luntz is fond of saying that Trump seems to be trying to lose the election, and while you may or may not agree with that analysis his underlying point is this: the issue terrain favors Trump, and the Democrats can't throw any more dirt at him. People have made up their minds, and no level of attack will hurt him anymore. Harris' real bar is not appearing ready to be president, but rather convincing people that she isn't Biden II or perhaps even worse. 

It's not a "feelz" election. It is a bread-and-butter election, and people like the flavor of Trump's recipe for economic success. They see him as strong on both the economy and foreign policy, and know he is committed to a closed border. Kamala may say she is strong on the border and has a plan, but it's not convincing--at least not yet. 

Harris is "burdened by what has been" even more than by her radical policies. In fact, her policies are so radical that nobody actually believes a serious candidate for president holds them. Seriously. You can show people that she supports gender surgery for illegal aliens and they will scoff because NOBODY would support that. 

She does, but they will probably never believe you. Seriously. Only a fraction of people will buy it. 

But nobody will vote on that issue either. They are too worried about their finances, and they don't trust Kamala on the economy. At least not the swing voters, who will likely break for Trump by a wide margin. 

Ed wrote yesterday about a Reuters focus group that echoed these sentiments, breaking 2-1 for Trump after the debate. Most believed Harris won the debate, and most didn't care a whit. They did better under Trump. 

Take this for what it's worth, but it does provide at least an interesting counterpoint to the doom and gloom on the Right this morning. Kamala Harris left the impression that she stuck the landing last night, and perhaps it's more than just an impression. Reuters' focus group of 10 independents agreed that Harris won the debate last night.

But six of the ten now plan or are leaning to vote for Donald Trump:

Reuters interviewed 10 people who were still unsure how they were going to vote in the Nov. 5 election before they watched the debate. Six said afterward they would now either vote for Trump or were leaning toward backing him. Three said they would now back Harris and one was still unsure how he would vote.

It's the economy, stupid. That is why he is more likely to win than not.