Sunday Smiles

David Strom 2:30 PM | September 08, 2024
meme

I have terrible news for you: I think Donald Trump is going to win this election.

The news is terrible, of course, because I have an almost unbroken record of failing to predict the outcome of close elections. I did get Bush v. Gore right, but in my experience, I usually have a bias based on my emotional attachment to the Republican Party. I tend to give the benefit of the doubt to the Red over the Blue. 

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And, despite my "training" as a "political scientist," I am neither a believer in the "science" of politics nor especially confident in the ability of numbers geeks to predict human behavior accurately. The best you can hope for in fluid situations is to make directionally correct guesses, not reliable predictions. I have seen a few wizards do magic on election night when actual numbers are flowing in, but predictions long before the voting begins are generally worth little. 

With all that said, I think Trump is going to win, based on a qualitative analysis of the state of play rather than any intense parsing of the data. 

Tuesday's debate could upend my analysis, but I sense that the euphoria of the Democrats and the depression of the Republicans caused by Biden's exit has mainly dissipated. Kamala Harris sprinted off the starting line and gained a ton of momentum, but it was all based on the help provided by the Establishment and especially the mainstream media. Toss in some (probably illegal in the main part) flood of campaign cash and Kamala was looking pretty good. 

It was scary for a bit. Like many of you, I was shaken by how dramatically things shifted in the race. 

But sprinters can't run marathons, or at least can't start out marathons by sprinting. And while this election is more a 10K race than a marathon, Kamala has mostly used up her stored energy without leaving Trump in the dust. In fact, her poll numbers are pretty weak and going in the wrong direction. 

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And, unsurprisingly, Kamala's strategy of running the campaign as a cooking show instead of a presidential race isn't sufficient to propel her to a commanding lead. In fact, it is costing her votes. I am not joking about the cooking show. Here is a tweet from a Washington Post columnist traveling with Kamala:

Democrat enthusiasm and "double hater" relief at Biden's exit got Harris where she is, but Americans still worry about world affairs, the sputtering economy, rising prices, and immigration. Harris's campaign has announced that she is now the younger MAGA candidate totally divorced from her earlier radicalism, but anonymous press releases are no substitute for a candidate making a case for an agenda. 

Harris can't get up on the debate stage and talk about collard greens in bathtubs or refer to Tim Walz's choice of Doritos over Lay's potato chips. People want to know about her leadership ability, her policy positions, and her ability to stand up to Vladimir Putin or the Ayatollahs. 

Harris is by nature weak, vapid, and annoying. By the end of her campaign, only die-hard Democrats will think of "Joy" and Kamala Harris in the same sentence. I just don't see how Harris wins Pennsylvania and Georgia unless she gets a brain transplant. 

Donald Trump is in better shape than he was in 2016 and 2020, and Harris is in worse shape with Hispanics and Blacks than Biden was. The only demographic in which she can say she is dramatically better off than Biden is single women--not a small thing, of course, but is that enough to counteract her decline with so many other demographics?

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I doubt it. I think she will continue to slump in the polls--not that she can fall far, given that her floor is probably 47% plus the Cheney family, David French, and Bill Kristol. 

Hence my minor depression. Given how often I am wrong in my predictions, I fear the worst. 

Now, on to the smiles!





































BEST OF THE BABYLON BEE!

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BEST OF THE REST...

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AND FINALLY...

Not sure if I have posted this before, but it is worth a repeat.


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