The Democrats are not doomed.
They are just "mostly doomed."
In politics, a month is a lifetime, trajectories can be OBE--overcome by events--and perception is reality most of the time. That's why the debate changed everything so quickly and dramatically. Perceptions changed and...POOF!, Biden is doomed as are vulnerable Democrats.
So it is just within the realm of possibility that some new event--such as a wildly popular Democrat suddenly gets on the ticket--could be Miracle Max, re-aliving Democrat prospects.
But...the chances are, shall we say, low--and the press conference last night shows why. Biden performed just well enough that he has extended his shelf life in the race.
Sure, he made plenty of flubs, but unlike in the debate, he recovered quickly, and despite providing clips that Republicans could pound him on, the mistakes pre-debate would not have been fatal to his campaign long term. They were just Joe being Joe.
But post debate? They are each one of the thousand cuts that will eventually cause Biden to bleed out. Biden is like the Black Knight in Monty Python and the Holy Grail.
"It's just a flesh wound," Biden brags while shouting and whispering into the microphone in the most unnerving way. If Biden has his way--and it is hard to see how he won't--he is in it to win it! He has shown every inclination to stick in the race, damn the critics, even if they are nearly every member of the party elite.
They are in a terrible bind. The public opinion polls show him still in striking distance, but nobody believes that they reflect a reality. Not that they are all rigged--if they were, Biden would be doing WORSE, not better--but because they show that Trump hatred is strong enough to keep average Democrats glued to Biden so far. (The latest poll--NPR/Marist , is likely a bad poll because it shows Biden improving since the debate, and that is inconsistent with every other poll out there. Rigged? Maybe. Bad? Almost certainly.)
And the internals in the polls are terrible for Democrats, showing they are far less excited to vote for their candidate than Republicans. Telling pollsters that you support Biden is one thing, going to the polls is another. If Democrat participation and, more importantly, left-leaning swing voter participation, is lower than Biden and the Democrats are toast.
New NPR/Marist poll shows Biden leading Trump by 2 points. Every other Democrat performs roughly the same. https://t.co/IqCKc7GB9N pic.twitter.com/U1PC7dfqnx
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) July 12, 2024
Hence the disconnect between the rank and file and the insiders, which is always there to a great extent, but iwhich s now a gulf as wide as the English Channel. Perhaps not so wide that the best swimmers might make it across, but wide enough that ONLY the best swimmers can do it under optimal conditions. And these will certainly NOT be the optimal conditions.
Send the "Vice President Trump" clip all over the place.
— Shawn Farash (@Shawn_Farash) July 12, 2024
I'm watching MSNBC and they're very upset with how that's being used against Biden right now.
CNN also wasn't happy about how it's being spread like wildfire.
SEND IT! pic.twitter.com/cEKlxFewca
Over the past two weeks the insiders have evaluated the polls and taken the temperature of those who will make a viable campaign possible--the donors--and concluded that Biden can't cross the finish line in first place and that his failure to do so will cost them any chance at the majority. They are out, and will continue their efforts to get rid of Biden. And those efforts will harm Biden and drag him down a bit more each day and discourage voters who might still support Biden otherwise, depressing eventual turnout.
If donor support collapsing deprives Democrats of a few hundred million dollars, as it probably will, Democrats are gonna feel a lot of pain. They need that money.
The reaction from Biden's team when he called Kamala "Vice President Trump"
— End Wokeness (@EndWokeness) July 12, 2024
ABSOLUTELY PRICELESS 🤣😂💀 pic.twitter.com/WLSFD2vDYp
Hence, the "success" of the press conference was the worst possible outcome for the party. Biden stays in and his resolve hardens even more; insiders keep trying to save their own skins by criticizing him, leaking, and ensuring that Biden's loss can't be blamed on them. "it is the selfish old man's fault," and party credibility will keep eroding both with Democrats and swing voters.
And this scenario doesn't take into account the fact that Republicans won't just step aside and watch. Eventually they will engage, and because the Republican convention is next week eventually is becoming now. And Biden won't be the Republican's target--it is the people who perpetrated the hoax.
📱 NEW NRCC AD CAMPAIGN📱
— Jack Pandol (@jackpandol) July 11, 2024
“The scandal of the century” - vulnerable House Democrats met with Biden at the White House, then covered up his decline.
“She knows the truth.”
First in @PunchbowlNews: pic.twitter.com/dVCXmUnZbT
Ouch. The death by a thousand cuts is the future of all vulnerable Democrats, it seems.
The media, too, has a problem: they need to save their own credibility after their own role in the hoax has been exposed. Swing voters saw Biden in meltdown for the first time, rather than "cheap fakes" which turned out to be real truth, and they look to the media as collaborators with the Democrats.
The media needs to prove that they were duped, not collaborators, so they will keep hitting Biden. They are committed to that path because for two weeks they have been pounding the 'Biden is doomed" drum. Another 180 will erode their credibility even more.
NBC News’ @carolelee: People around Biden “are saying that this is not a winnable situation, & that this is not something that the president can turn around, & believe that he needs to get out of the race” pic.twitter.com/Fm1jseWcDQ
— Tom Elliott (@tomselliott) July 12, 2024
Hence the sense of doom. Every flub of Biden's will be endlessly scrutinized, and Biden will continue to have "episodes." Each one of those will reinforce the fact that Biden is unfit, and the cycle will go on.
It will be extremely painful for all concerned, except for the Republicans.
For us? It will be glorious, unless the Democrats cheat enough in November to pull out a win, in which case all bets are off. Nobody but the most partisan Democrats will believe it. Yet another hoax--that our elections are secure--will be exposed.
So, Democrats aren't dead. Just mostly dead.
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