As Politico speculated this morning (and AP relayed in an earlier post), Ron Paul actually stands a chance to win the Iowa straw poll today — particularly if turnout is low. The early word is that the voting universe actually looks to be quite strong, but the excitement outside Paul’s tent this morning certainly reinforced the idea that he’ll do well. And Paul himself says he’s feeling confident.

“It’s pretty exciting,” Paul said to me, in between signing his book for young fans and chatting briefly with supporters. “There’s a lot of enthusiasm. I think it’s really interesting because nobody knows how this is going to come out.”

Nobody does know, of course, but the buzz is that the contest essentially comes down to Rep. Michele Bachmann and Paul. If Paul wins, though, it will reflect the intense loyalty of his fiercest supporters more than it will reflect any kind of significantly increasing widespread appeal.

But Paul thinks differently about what might drive a victory today. In his mind, it wouldn’t have anything to do with low turnout or a cache of committed followers. It would be because his message has had time to marinate.

“A lot of people are saying, ‘Oh, you’re doing so much better,'” Paul said. “I think I’ve been doing the same thing for a long time, but more people are just starting to agree with me.”

If Paul does win, though, the Iowa straw poll itself loses. As Nate Silver explained this morning, the straw poll is actually a pretty reliable predictor of what will happen in the Iowa caucuses — and Paul could upset that, costing the poll some of its credibility.

A Paul victory would also cost the poll attention — to Rick Perry, whose presidential announcement has already somewhat overshadowed the excitement here. (I spoke, for example, to one Bachmann volunteer from Texas who said he definitely wants to swap in his traffic-cone orange Bachmann T-shirt for “Americans for Rick Perry” burnt-orange or maroon. On the other hand, a Texan volunteering for Pawlenty said she remains committed to Pawlenty despite Perry’s announcement. “I like my governor — but as governor,” she said. “America needs a man like Pawlenty for president.”)

But Paul certainly deserves the attention he’s been receiving, if for no other reason than that his space contained the most fair-like fun, from “The Paul’s Prosperity Playground” complete with a “Sliding Dollar” inflatable slide to “Ron Paul Hot Dogs.” Sen. Rand Paul also stumped on behalf of his father to loud applause and to this telling comment from one of Paul’s campaign folks, “Vote for Ron Paul and you get Rand, too.”