Open thread: The Ames straw poll

posted at 11:30 am on August 13, 2011 by Jazz Shaw

Results expected shortly after 6pm Eastern


Live video stream from the straw poll:


Live video by Ustream

For one possible topic of discussion, you may wish to sharpen your punditry and prognostication skills while we wait for the speeches to finish and the counting to begin at 5 p.m. ET. Who made the sale? Who shouldn’t have bothered showing up? How many Iowans will bother showing up and voting? Fill out your trifecta card and let us know who is going to pull what percentage of the vote.

My friend Nathan Wurtzel is going with a turnout of 12,382 and predicts a Ron Paul win with 24%.

I’m going with Bachmann 26%, Ron Paul 22%, T-Paw 17% and the rest spread out from there. Turnout has been considerably better than 12K in years past and this is shaping up to be a hotly contested election, so I think turnout will break 15K.

While you ponder the choices, here’s a video for you to watch of the ABC crystal ball crew with their predictions. Two of the three agree with Nate in feeling that the Ron Paul army will do their usual schtick and take the top spot. One of them agrees with me on the winner. Interestingly, one thinks that write-in ballots for Perry could crack the top 3.

Take it away.

Update (AP): We’ll know the winner sometime in the 5-6 p.m. hour, but pay attention to turnout numbers if you hear them during the course of the day. Bachmann is the most popular candidate locally, but liking her and taking time to go vote for her are two different things. From Politico: “A broad rule of thumb: The closer turnout is to 20,000, the better it looks for Bachmann. The closer to 10,000, the more likely it is Pawlenty or Paul could knock off the Iowa frontrunner.”

Update (Ed): Tina, Guy, and I are now in the Spin Room and will be getting video and stories from the fairgrounds-like area outside the arena. The speeches will take place on stage in the Spin Room, so we will have front-row seats for the addresses. We’re most likely to comment on Twitter, so here is the Townhall/Hot Air twitter widget once more:

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One guy was pi$$ed that Perry stomped on their event.

Here we go….

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:41 PM

bachmann wins

cmsinaz on August 13, 2011 at 6:42 PM

Bleh, worthless poll. She bought it.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:42 PM

So long, Timmeh.

steebo77 on August 13, 2011 at 6:42 PM

Bachmann wins

Knucklehead on August 13, 2011 at 6:42 PM

MB wins AMES!!

AH_C on August 13, 2011 at 6:42 PM

Michelle Bachmann

William Amos on August 13, 2011 at 6:42 PM

Well, well. That’s quite a thing, right there.

Inkblots on August 13, 2011 at 6:42 PM

At least Nutball didn’t win.

KSgop on August 13, 2011 at 6:42 PM

1. Michele Bachmann
2. Ron Paul
3. Tim Pawlenty
4. Rick Santorum
5. Herman Cain

steebo77 on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

You’re welcome. I think he may be the one I’ve been waiting for.

Knucklehead on August 13, 2011 at 6:40 PM

Yeah me too.

gophergirl on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

Where’s Mittness?

AH_C on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

Bachmann
Paul
Pawlenty
Santorum
Cain

Knucklehead on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

bachmann
paul
pawlenty

cmsinaz on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

Bachmann!

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

MB!

Now back to tearing her down.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

Huntsman with 69 votes. Gotta love it.

TXUS on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

congrats to michelle but i still don’t see her doing well after iowa…

cmsinaz on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

Now the Paulians are protesting

AH_C on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

Oof. Pawlenty placed third, behind RuPaul. That’s not fatal to his campaign, but he’s on shakier ground now.

KingGold on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

Ron Paul supporters could not pull it off. Pathetic.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

The Paulnuts are going nuts….ooops that’s redundant.

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

I guess buying votes worked out for Bachmann.

darwin on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

4,800 – Bachmann
4,600 – Paul
2,200 – Pawlenty

steebo77 on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

cmsinaz on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

Which means Paul is our nominee!!!!!! YAAAAY.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

Congratulations to Bachmann and Paul supporters on a very close contest!

Inkblots on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

surprised at Mitt’s showing, or lack thereof…

i’m surprised at santorum’s showing as well.

oh well… congrats to MB!

toenail on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

worked out for Bachmann.

darwin on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

Heh. Nutter.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

BLUF: 1st drop out is TPaw

AH_C on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

1. Michele Bachmann
2. Ron Paul
3. Tim Pawlenty
4. Rick Santorum
5. Herman Cain

steebo77 on August 13, 2011 at 6:43 PM

Wonderful. Now no one will drop out. Well, maybe Cain. But T-Paw and Santorum will probably stick around. We can’t have 9 or 10 people onstage at these freaking debates.

Doughboy on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

bleh

it’ll be perry v romney

cmsinaz on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

They should have just bought more voted like she had to.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

Oof. Pawlenty placed third, behind RuPaul. That’s not fatal to his campaign, but he’s on shakier ground now.

KingGold on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

Fox just said “distant” third after spending a million bucks.

Knucklehead on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

Good Girl!

I’m a Perry supporter, and I’m so happy she won it. She’s been good for the GOP, and this can’t hurt her/our future within it.

Yeeehaw!

petefrt on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

I think T-Paw is done.

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

So Paul comes in right behind Bachmann after she dropped big cash for this? And T-Paw, who’s spent $$$ in Iowa so far, really has nothing to show?

The winners: Palin and Perry.

steebo77 on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

LOL, Mitt 5th.

shawk on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

Ron Paul = Epic Fail

stefanite on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

I think T-Paw is done.

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

He’s been done for months, but will he admit it?

Doughboy on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

Which means Paul is our nominee!!!!!! YAAAAY.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

Not a shot in Hades. He had the advantage and lost. He doesn’t attract new voters.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

stefanite on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

Lol, wut?

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

This is huge for Paul. And the GOP. Finally tilting toward limited gov’t.

shawk on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

He’s been done for months, but will he admit it?

Doughboy on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

probably after iowa?

cmsinaz on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

Write-In Perry over Romney. Niiiiiice

XWing5 on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

He is the ONLY one attracting new voters.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

Once again, the pundit class got it wrong – judging by the screenshot of the above video. Heh.

AH_C on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

All right Perry – 718 write in votes – not bad at all!

gophergirl on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

They should have just bought more voted like she had to.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

You keep telling yourself that.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

Fox just said “distant” third after spending a million bucks.

Knucklehead on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

Competing against a strawpoll-gaming king and Iowa’s favorite daughter. He needed third, he got third.

Now let’s see Bachmann’s viability anywhere other than Iowa. It’s on her now.

KingGold on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

With this poll result Ron Paul gets half the total votes he would get in an overall american vote.

William Amos on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

Congratulations Michelle

Kataklysmic on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

712 write in votes for Perry.

Knucklehead on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

This is huge for Paul. And the GOP. Finally tilting toward limited gov’t.

shawk on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

Not really.

The Notorious G.O.P on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

Sorry….Mitt 6th. Perry write-ins came in ahead of Romney!

shawk on August 13, 2011 at 6:48 PM

So the winners are: Tea Partiers and libertarians.

shawk on August 13, 2011 at 6:48 PM

You know what would be kewl…?

… All of the Ron Paul supporters doing a ‘flash mob’ running around in pajamas and robes, with one slipper, messed up hair, arms flailing away in the air with that high pitch voice, and crazed look.

THAT would be something to see…!

Seven Percent Solution on August 13, 2011 at 3:30 PM

And then, there is this

Same crowd, different venue.

Key West Reader on August 13, 2011 at 6:48 PM

guypbenson profile

guypbenson Rick Perry pulled in nearly 1/3 the vote total of T-Paw…without even being on the ballot. #ames

Knucklehead on August 13, 2011 at 6:48 PM

shawk on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

The GOP only tilts towards limited government during election years and even then only on certain issues.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:48 PM

Now let’s see Bachmann’s viability anywhere other than Iowa. It’s on her now.

KingGold on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

Yep.

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:49 PM

I hear MB is on 5 TV news shows tomorrow. Get ‘em, MB!

petefrt on August 13, 2011 at 6:49 PM

He is the ONLY one attracting new voters.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

Hmmmm

You dim bulbs. God you are as dumb as the Palin nutters and the Obama changers.

Oh and tard to read what Rasmussen said about his ability to attract new voters. You know in that lame post your twin Spathi put up last week. You two are funny.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:50 PM

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:49 PM

2nd that

cmsinaz on August 13, 2011 at 6:50 PM

petefrt on August 13, 2011 at 6:49 PM

Someone tell her not to pop a handful of downers like she did before the debate. Seriously she was boring and dull and spoke about half a mile an hour.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:50 PM

Congrats to Bachmann.

Y-not on August 13, 2011 at 6:51 PM

With a distant-third showing, T-Paw’s going to have serious difficulty raising the money to compete in NH and SC. I think he’s done, from a practical standpoint.

TXUS on August 13, 2011 at 6:51 PM

I guess buying votes worked out for Bachmann.

darwin on August 13, 2011 at 6:44 PM

Worked pretty good for Ron Paul too. The two top people are not people I could vote for. I gave up on Bachmann throughout the debt deal business..when she said we got downgraded because they increased the debt ceiling after both Moodys and S&P said otherwise..well I just lost respect for her. She was just flapping her gums to get votes.

LOL, Mitt 5th.

shawk on August 13, 2011 at 6:45 PM

So? Mitt did not even try running for this poll. And as far as that is concerned, Perry did not even bothering announcing before today. That tells you how important this thing is. I mean come on. Ron Paul came in second. I might not agree with everything Rush Limbaugh says, but I think he is right when he says that Ron Paul is trying to destroy the Republican party.

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 6:51 PM

He’s been done for months, but will he admit it?

Doughboy on August 13, 2011 at 6:46 PM

I think he’ll hang on for a while.

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:51 PM

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:50 PM

What the hell does that have to do with NEW voters? What does Michelle Bachmann bring to the table that is going to make liberals or independents run to vote for her? Talking about NEW voters, not people who are already voting republican.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:52 PM

We may have to just wait four more years and spend time party building at this point again.

The Paul movement is stronger than it was 4 years ago, but Bachmann is stealing the show at the moment.

Spathi on August 13, 2011 at 6:19 PM

Get over it. Paul is finished…

OmahaConservative on August 13, 2011 at 6:53 PM

Congrats to Bachmann.

Y-not on August 13, 2011 at 6:51 PM

Yup…

OmahaConservative on August 13, 2011 at 6:53 PM

For the 1st and last time in his campaign, TPaw breaks double digits.

AH_C on August 13, 2011 at 6:53 PM

Now let’s see Bachmann’s viability anywhere other than Iowa. It’s on her now.

KingGold on August 13, 2011 at 6:47 PM

Yep.

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 6:49 PM

Look at the number of votes total…all this for a total of less than 20,000 votes among them…and those votes were paid for.

The thing about Bachmann is that while she is energetic and articulate…some of her positions are so obviously political. I know she is a politician and all politicians pander to get votes, but she just does not strike me as someone who has the ability to be president. I am sorry, she just does not.

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 6:55 PM

Get over it. Paul is finished…
OmahaConservative on August 13, 2011 at 6:53 PM

The Mad Mullahs Of Iran will really be disappointed.

whatcat on August 13, 2011 at 6:55 PM

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 6:55 PM

When you run a favorite-son campaign in Iowa, you’re going to win Iowa and in few other places. That’s why I’m not bummed that Pawlenty placed third.

KingGold on August 13, 2011 at 6:56 PM

We may have to just wait four more years and spend time party building at this point again.

The Paul movement is stronger than it was 4 years ago, but Bachmann is stealing the show at the moment.

Spathi on August 13, 2011 at 6:19 PM

Get over it. Paul is finished…

OmahaConservative on August 13, 2011 at 6:53 PM

I hope so. The man is nuts.

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 6:57 PM

What the hell does that have to do with NEW voters?
thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:52 PM

You totally dismissed what Rasmussen said….hmmm. Losers like you are like that. I notice crr6 is the cafeteria type too. Hey at least you are not alone.

The RCP info shows he cannot gain a big enough voting bloc.He is really not making significant gains. Sorry . You lost today. You lose tomorrow.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:58 PM

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 6:55 PM

The only one running that isn’t an unprincipled politician is really Ron Paul. Perry is an illegal immigration whore. Romney is a RINO on a lot of issues. Bachmann is the Obama of this election with next to no record. I don’t know much about Pawlenty so I can’t say anything about him. Santorum is a lunatic religious nut who would scare away 80% of the electorate with his mandate that raped 12 year olds carry their fathers baby to term.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Maybe some of the candidates can gin up enough nerve to talk about what PC has made Verbotten.

Concealing Black Hate Crimes

Racism: Across the U.S., mobs of black youths are organizing on Facebook to loot stores and beat whites. Yet none dare call the “flash mob” attacks hate crime, least of all the attorney general.

The Associated Press is reporting that at least one of those arrested in the Wisconsin State Fair beatings said the mob was targeting whites, making it a hate crime. Where is Eric Holder’s civil rights division? About this epidemic of black-on-white assaults, we hear nothing.

At the Milwaukee fairgrounds, dozens of black teens suddenly appeared, knocking over children, looting the Midway games and stealing prizes. They pulled whites from cars, flung them to the ground and punched and kicked them in the face. At least 18 people were injured, including some cops.

A similar beat-down took place August 2010 at the Iowa State Fair. Organized as “beat whitey night,” bands of black teens targeted white kids, fracturing one of their skulls. Then the thugs swarmed police, hitting one cop from behind and busting both his eye sockets.

Similar attacks are under investigation in Los Angeles, Chicago, Cleveland and Washington, D.C., where our first black president remains mum.

Why isn’t Obama equally disgusted by the black pack attacks? Perhaps because his own church glamorized the thug culture. His mentor, Rev. Jeremiah Wright, told his South Side Chicago flock that those committing black-on-black crime are “fighting the wrong enemy.” During the 2008 presidential campaign, Geraldine Ferraro condemned Wright for preaching to young blacks that “it’s OK to beat up on white people.”

Imagine if the flash-mob victims were black instead of white. Holder would have launched a special investigation. With the races reversed, he just shrugs.

Lon Chaney on August 13, 2011 at 7:00 PM

Get over it. Paul is finished…

OmahaConservative on August 13, 2011 at 6:53 PM

Like Newt, Ron is done. The future is Rand.

petefrt on August 13, 2011 at 7:00 PM

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:58 PM

How did I dismiss what Rasmussen said when I have no clue what Rasmussen said? Idiot.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 7:00 PM

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 6:55 PM

The only one running that isn’t an unprincipled politician is really Ron Paul. Perry is an illegal immigration whore. Romney is a RINO on a lot of issues. Bachmann is the Obama of this election with next to no record. I don’t know much about Pawlenty so I can’t say anything about him. Santorum is a lunatic religious nut who would scare away 80% of the electorate with his mandate that raped 12 year olds carry their fathers baby to term.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 6:59 PM

Ron Paul is not principled, he is insane.

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 7:03 PM

I’m supporting Rick, of course, but am happy as hell that Michelle won this, particularly after the Newsweek photo hatchet job and Pawlenty’s inexcusable attempt to trash her in the last few weeks, and at the debate. And, no one can question her conservative chops.

That said, I still expect Romney to win NH, with possibly Perry 2nd, Michelle 3rd. Which leaves, for the time being, SC. Ergo, Rick’s decision to announce there, where Romney’s weakest and Michelle will be at somewhat of a disadvantage because of her IA/MN non-Southern roots. OTOH, Cuda’s still out there, so who knows?

TXUS on August 13, 2011 at 7:03 PM

How did I dismiss what Rasmussen said when I have no clue what Rasmussen said? Idiot.

thphilli on August 13, 2011 at 7:00 PM

You answered your own question. Hilarious.

Psst dimwit. Democrats don’t vote in most GOP primaries. Sorry. God you’re stupid.

Start at about the 1 minute mark. Or the whole thing if you like. Glad to fix your ignorance feigned or not.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TrLqaDakR2U

CW on August 13, 2011 at 7:04 PM

Hmmmm

You dim bulbs. God you are as dumb as the Palin nutters and the Obama changers.

Oh and tard to read what Rasmussen said about his ability to attract new voters. You know in that lame post your twin Spathi put up last week. You two are funny.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 6:50 PM

Hmmm. Why is it that these polls consistently show an average total of a1most 50% favorables for current campaigners? Who are the other 50% in favor of or are they just “undecided”?

As she who shall not be named stated as recently as yesterday, it doesn’t look like the field is settled. Mebbe we’ll see 70 – 80% poling once she jumps in, eh?

Makes sense to be the last to jump in, so most everyone else can flame out without having to go head to head with them.

Ooh, ooh, ooh, Pugsey, I know, they’re waiting for the two New Yorkers to jump in; George & Rudy. Yeah, that’s the ticket. /s

AH_C on August 13, 2011 at 7:04 PM

Ron Paul will never be the GOP nominee, let alone President of the United States. Ever.

KSgop on August 13, 2011 at 7:05 PM

I’m supporting Rick
TXUS on August 13, 2011 at 7:03 PM

Rick did not have a bad showing all considering. Too bad for him he did not get in earlier.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 7:05 PM

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 6:55 PM

When you run a favorite-son campaign in Iowa, you’re going to win Iowa and in few other places. That’s why I’m not bummed that Pawlenty placed third.

KingGold on August 13, 2011 at 6:56 PM

This is true, but I am not sure if he will stay in. It takes a lot of money to do this.

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 7:05 PM

I am sorry, she just does not.

Terrye on August 13, 2011 at 6:55 PM

I don’t disagree but I am going to watch her over the coming months to see if that assessment is valid or not.

csdeven on August 13, 2011 at 7:07 PM

littlebettina Hmm. Perry’s write-in votes appeared on the megatron. Can we safely assume non-candidate Palin didn’t receive enough write-ins to mention? about 1 minute ago · reply · retweet · favorite

Yes, because she hasn’t declared and the poll is really about those currently in the race and not about a dream candidate that’s not yet running.

AH_C on August 13, 2011 at 7:12 PM

The future is Rand.

petefrt on August 13, 2011 at 7:00 PM

Well in that case, you do know who the future is telling you to support?

JohnGalt23 on August 13, 2011 at 7:16 PM

The total silence from our “First Black President”, and the vast majority of the “Black Community”, including the so called “Black ‘Christian’ Community”, on the brutal racist attacks by terrorist black mobs on non-blacks in Wisconsin (on Obama’s 50th birthday, no less) and so many other places, has in no uncertain terms informed me as to what extreme racist degenerates they are, as by their silence, they have, in clear fact, given their approval, and their de facto encouragement for even more.

To paraphrase someone-or-other, I think it may have been one of Obama’s favorite historical teachers, “Any White attacks on Blacks is a vile hate crime against humanity; all violent attacks, no matter how many, committed by blacks against whites are merely never to be spoken of statistics.

Lon Chaney on August 13, 2011 at 7:18 PM

Rick did not have a bad showing all considering. Too bad for him he did not get in earlier.

CW on August 13, 2011 at 7:05 PM

As to his showing in the straw poll, I was somewhat surprised he did that well, but he really didn’t need to play in that pool. The IA straw poll has pretty much devolved into to a pre-season game to decide which might be your better bench players during the regular season. This is not to take anything away from Michele, who worked her ass off and deserves the win. Plus, I want her conservative, take-no-prisoners voice out there.

TXUS on August 13, 2011 at 7:20 PM

allahpundit Big winner from today’s poll: Rand Paul 2016?

I’m hoping and praying, yes praying AP, that we’re in re-election mode in 2016. If not, not even a Reagan/Churchill come-from-the-grave ticket’s gonna save us.

TXUS on August 13, 2011 at 7:29 PM

Like Newt, Ron is done. The future is Rand.

petefrt on August 13, 2011 at 7:00 PM

Yep. Whatever the Pauls can accomplish, Rand is gonna have to be the one to do it. Ron is “just another old white man” to liberals, and an “evil not-zee isolationist” to conservatives.

Uncle Sams Nephew on August 13, 2011 at 8:14 PM

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