Mick Mulvaney wants Phase 4 dollars to get primarily directed at testing, arguing that Congress has done enough on the economic “symptoms” and should focus on the actual disease. Not everyone agrees, or at least not everyone thinks that three trillion dollars in various economic stimuli is sufficient. With COVID-19 cases spiking — and deaths in some states — economists warn that the country might tip immediately out of recovery mode when the programs run out.
The Washington Post’s David Lynch rounded up the latest harbingers of pessimism, if not doom, on Saturday evening. However, Lynch’s analysis is missing a key ingredient — metrics:
But without a uniform federal strategy, many governors rushed to reopen their economies before bringing the virus under control. Now states such as Florida, California, Texas and Arizona are setting daily records for coronavirus cases and more than 70 percent of the country has either paused or reversed reopening plans, according to Goldman Sachs.
After two surprisingly strong months, the economy could begin shedding jobs again this month and in August, Morgan Stanley warned Friday. Many small businesses that received forgivable government loans have exhausted their funds while some larger companies are starting to thin their payrolls in preparation for a longer-than-expected downturn.
Fresh labor market weakness would represent a profound disappointment for millions of American workers and President Trump, who is eager to highlight economic progress with only a few months remaining before the November election.
“ ‘Stalling’ is the word I’m using,” said Jim O’Sullivan, chief U.S. macro strategist for TD Ameritrade. “But the risk there is that the numbers start turning negative again.”