What if opposition among Americans to Donald Trump’s shutdown proposal isn’t about the border-wall funding? A new poll out from Emerson shows that 55% oppose the wall-for-DACA-extension made by the president on Saturday. What would they think if Trump offered full citizenship instead? Here’s your surprising Chart of the Day:
Given the tenor of media coverage of “dreamers” and this standoff over the wall, this seems a little counter-intuitive. Looking at the polling results from Emerson, however, it makes sense. As it turns out, most voters want tougher enforcement, and Democrats find themselves on the fringe on this issue.
Respondents overall wanted to increase immigration enforcement at the border by a margin better than 2:1 over opposition, 55/24. Among Republicans, it’s 81/8, but it’s also very popular with independents at 57/20. Only among Democrats is there opposition to the idea of increased immigration enforcement — but only by a plurality, 27/44. Almost 30% of Democrats told Emerson they were unsure or have no opinion on the matter.
What about the wall itself? Overall, 41% say it isn’t a solution for border enforcement at all, but 59% believe that it is either the best solution (26%) or one of many solutions (33%). More than two-thirds of Democrats (69%) say it’s no solution, but only 15% of Republicans and 38% of independents agree. The effort by Democrats to delegitimize the border wall as a vanity project or a futile idea has only worked within their own ranks.
The lack of support for Trump’s proposal, therefore, might be because he’s being too generous.
Who gets the blame for the shutdown? Amusingly, hardly anyone blames Republicans on Capitol Hill, not even Democrats, 7% of whom assign blame on the GOP caucuses. Democrats blame Trump (74%), Republicans blame Democrats in Congress (64%), while independents spread the blame more equally (37% on Trump, 35% on Democrats in Congress, and 24% on everyone).
Finally, Emerson tests the Democratic presidential waters and finds Elizabeth Warren far out in front with 43% among those who have already announced. That leaves Joe Biden off the list, but Kamala Harris trails badly at 19%, while Kirsten Gillibrand’s 9% falls three points behind Julián Castro. It’s not an auspicious start for the Democrats.