Is this the real life … or is this just fantasy? One thing’s for sure — we’re not caught in a landslide either way in Florida. The final release from GOP pollster Trafalgar in the Sunshine State shows Gov. Rick Scott edging out to a lead of almost two points against incumbent Democrat Sen. Bill Nelson. The poll also puts Ron DeSantis back on top over Andrew Gillum in the gubernatorial race by an even wider margin:
Breaking: Our FINAL @trafalgar_group Florida #Midterm #poll conducted 11/4-5 shows:
Governor@RonDeSantisFL 50%@AndrewGillum 46.6%
US Senate@FLGovScott 49%@NelsonForSenate 47.3%
Und. 3.7%#FLsen #FLgov #FLpol #Midterms2018
Report: https://t.co/2h7pXtTsqg pic.twitter.com/ydxqx6k8ca
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) November 6, 2018
Earlier today, Allahpundit noted a last-minute poll from Trafalgar showing Matt Rosendale in a virtual dead heat with Democratic incumbent Sen. Jon Tester in Montana. If Trafalgar has its finger on the pulse of America, this is excellent news. But that’s still a mighty big if.
The Senate results are hardly outliers from the overall polling trends, either in Montana or in Florida. Nelson has a lead in the RCP aggregation of only 2.4%, well within any reasonable margin of error, as is Scott’s edge in this poll. Emerson and Quinnipiac gave Nelson larger leads (five and seven points, respectively) but HarrisX also put Scott at +2 this week.
The gubernatorial race is a different matter. Only one other poll since mid-summer put DeSantis in the lead in RCP’s aggregation, a mid-October poll from WCTC. Even the HarrisX poll that showed Scott leading last had Gillum up by four points. This looks more outlier-ish than the Scott result, and as such, makes the Scott result a little questionable, too.
I’d love to believe this result, especially in the Senate race, but the most accurate way to address it is to call it plausible. Don’t forget too that Republicans wound up with a significant, if relatively narrow, lead in Florida’s early voting of about 41,000 ballots. The new poll might reflect the results of that edge, or it might just be wishful thinking.