Q-poll: Rubio up 13, almost at 50%

For those disinclined to trust Rasmussen’s polling, the latest from Quinnipiac might change minds.  Their survey of likely voters essentially corroborates yesterday’s Rasmussen poll in Florida that shows Marco Rubio with a double-digit lead.  In fact, the Q-poll puts Rubio at 46%, which Jim Geraghty points out that Rubio is coming close to winning a majority in a three-way race:

Republican Marco Rubio holds a solid 46 – 33 percent likely voter lead over Gov. Charlie Crist, running as an independent in the race for Florida’s U.S. Senate seat, with Democrat U.S. Rep. Kendrick Meek at 18 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

That’s an even wider lead than Rasmussen found (41/30/21), but there’s more to cheer as well:

Rubio’s double-digit lead in the horse race is confirmed by a 53 – 41 percent margin for a senator who will oppose President Barack Obama’s policies and a 47 – 38 percent preference that the Republicans rather than the Democrats control the U.S. Senate.

“Not only does Marco Rubio have a double-digit lead in the U.S. Senate race, but more of his supporters say their mind is made up than those backing Gov. Charlie Crist and Congressman Kendrick Meek,” said Brown.

“Almost half of Florida’s likely voters are angry at the federal government, and Rubio gets 68 percent of these angry voters. Moreover, with only 3 percent of voters undecided, Rubio just needs to hold onto what he’s got, while Crist and Meek, especially, have their work cut out for them if they want to pass the leader,” Brown added.

There is a lot of work left to be done over the next four-plus weeks, but that’s about as solid a race as we’ll see this year, outside of Jim DeMint’s attempt to fend off Alvin Greene and keep his Democratic challenger from coming within 40 points of him.

It’s also a coup for the Tea Party activists; it may be so long ago that some will forget that the GOP establishment lined up behind Charlie Crist, and Rubio was the “insurgent” candidate.  Crist’s attempt to paint himself as an outsider has flopped, and the only question will be whether Kendrick Meek can beat him for a second-place finish.  Crist leads Meek now by double digits, but only by splitting the Democratic vote.  On Election Day, with Crist unable to catch up to Rubio, many of those Democrats will be tempted to toss Crist overboard and back their party’s nominee.  Don’t be surprised to see Crist coming in last in this race on November 2nd.