Rasmussen: GOP leading FL, CO Senate races, NV dead heat

posted at 3:35 pm on September 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

These polls come at us so fast that sometimes it’s easier to take them in groups.  Rasmussen has three polls out this morning on key Senate races, and they’re mainly good news for the GOP.  Marco Rubio is in cruise control in Florida for a Republican hold, and on track for a pickup in Colorado with Ken Buck.  In Nevada, Harry Reid remains in the fight of his life with Sharron Angle in a race that could decide control of the Senate.

FLORIDA: Rubio has an eleven-point lead over Charlie Crist, with Kendrick Meek still a distant third, 41/30/21 respectively.  The good news for Rubio is that Meek has decided to attack Crist in order to get his base back from the converted Republican.  Meek’s running ads showing Crist claiming to be the true conservative and real Republican in the early primary campaign, and most tellingly, praising George W. Bush and Sarah Palin.  Until now, Crist splits Democrats evenly with Meek, 41/41, with 9% going to Rubio.  Crist now only gets 15% of Republicans.

Rubio wins almost every age demo but the 18-29YOs, and has  a majority among seniors, which puts a big dent in the hopes of his rivals.  Crist still gets more independents than Rubio or Meek, but not by enough to make it a problem (38%, to Rubio’s 28% and Meek’s 22%).  Rubio wins every income demo, with a tie among those earning $40-60K with Crist at 37%.

COLORADO: This race still looks close, but Ken Buck has pulled into a lead over Michael Bennet, and now gets over 50% of the vote as well when leaners are included, 51/43.  That is an improvement for Buck in the last two weeks; previously, the split was 49/45.  With two debates under his belt, Buck seems to have made Coloradans comfortable with his Tea Party support.  Rasmussen has moved this from Toss-Up to Leans GOP.

Interestingly, Buck leads among men and women, and actually does better with female voters, 51/39 as opposed to 51/47 for men.  Women are less certain of their vote, though, so this could change between now and the election.  Bennet wins younger voters (72% under 30, 51% of thirtysomethings) but Buck wins majorities in the rest of the age demos.  Buck also beats Bennet by almost 20 points among independents.

NEVADA: Rasmussen shows Harry Reid with a 48/47 edge with leaners over Sharron Angle.  That’s a slight movement to Reid since the last survey, but overall it just looks like a virtual tie.  Angle beats Reid with independents, 48/38, but otherwise the demographics don’t give a good indication how this race will break in the end.  On the issues, though, Angle has the edge:

  • Federal gov’t policies put nation on right course: 34/55
  • Current economic policies Bush’s fault/Obama’s fault: 52/44
  • Stimulus helped/hurt the economy: 31/52
  • Obama approval: 47/52

Those voters who break late may do so on a referendum-type question as to which direction they want to see the nation go — and if they do, they’ll probably break for Angle.  It may just come down to GOTV in Nevada, however, and that would give the advantage to Reid, unless the NRSC and the RNC put in some serious investments.


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We could sure use some help in NV. Reid’s ads are drowning everything else out here. I saw 4 just during halftime of the Monday night game, each one a complete lie.

Clownballoon on September 29, 2010 at 3:40 PM

I think that Rory Reid is the fly in the ointment. There will be a proportion of voters that will want to inflict a twofer on the Reid clan and hand them both a loss, just because they can.

Reid loses NV.—by 3pts.

ted c on September 29, 2010 at 3:41 PM

Reid loses NV.—by 3pts.

ted c on September 29, 2010 at 3:41 PM

From your keyboard to God’s monitor…please.

NJ Red on September 29, 2010 at 3:43 PM

What are they waiting for? Give Angle some money NRSC and RNC because I want to see Harry pack his bags in November!

Cookies Mom on September 29, 2010 at 3:44 PM

Heh…

Akzed on September 29, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Sounds good,so far,touch wood!!

canopfor on September 29, 2010 at 3:46 PM

They each got where they are by defeating RINO’s.

Akzed on September 29, 2010 at 3:47 PM

Heh…

Akzed on September 29, 2010 at 3:45 PM

Akzed:)
=================================================

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_3QqO8EXd-II/TIIleN3BgAI/AAAAAAAA3cs/9zlyfuxK_YM/s1600/image001.JPG

canopfor on September 29, 2010 at 3:50 PM

canopfor on September 29, 2010 at 3:50 PM

Double heh…

Akzed on September 29, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Well lets just all HOPE that the new blood in D.C doesnt squander this moment and pander to special interests and conduct ” business as usual “

ELMO Q on September 29, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Well if the Nevada poll is showing a dead heat then wouldn’t Republican voter enthusiasm propel Angle to a win?

sharrukin on September 29, 2010 at 3:52 PM

Well lets just all HOPE that the new blood in D.C doesnt squander this moment and pander to special interests and conduct ” business as usual “
ELMO Q on September 29, 2010 at 3:51 PM

AND that each of these candidates and others, win or lose in the general, defeated entrenched RINO’s.

“Oh no, vote for Castle, play it safe, a bird in the hand and all that…”

Akzed on September 29, 2010 at 3:52 PM

canopfor on September 29, 2010 at 3:50 PM
==============
Double heh…

Akzed on September 29, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Akzed:Had this one saved for about now!

From Times front cover,Nov 21 1994!

I do love the Donkey eyes about to launch!!:)
==========================================================

http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19941121,00.html

canopfor on September 29, 2010 at 3:56 PM

I finally scored a Rubio sign to put in my yard. They were rather hard to find, cuz lotsa peeps want ‘em…even the old lady in the Sarasota GOP office told me she had them hidden LOL.

The FL GOP had a statewide GOTV effort last Saturday, and I volunteered to make calls for the first time ever. I’m proud to say the Sarasota County volunteers kicked a$$, and was #1 in calls in the STATE, topping Orlando, Jacksonville, Miami, etc. Ya, there’s a fever around here, and it ain’t the heat!

ornery_independent on September 29, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Rubio gets every age group BUT the 20 somethings? Amazing to me. I guess young and family and fresh only translates to that age group if free gas free mortgage and free healthcare is attached.

Marcus on September 29, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Well lets just all HOPE that the new blood in D.C doesnt squander this moment and pander to special interests and conduct ” business as usual “
ELMO Q on September 29, 2010 at 3:51 PM

Awaiting the Senatorial Tea-Party Causus

tomg51 on September 29, 2010 at 3:58 PM

And just how many are voting for Reid on name recognition alone? I seriously doubt most of these people are even aware of the issues. Why would you vote for the continuing demise of your country, unless you lean communist?

capejasmine on September 29, 2010 at 3:59 PM

http://www.time.com/time/covers/0,16641,19941121,00.html

canopfor on September 29, 2010 at 3:56 PM

Cool pic canopfor!

ornery_independent on September 29, 2010 at 3:59 PM

Caucus
sigh

tomg51 on September 29, 2010 at 3:59 PM

The GOP in Nevada needs to make sure they have lots of poll watchers during the election. I’ll be volunteering to be a poll watcher here in Colorado.

If it’s close, the Democrats will make up the difference by cheating. In the close races like the Angle/Reid race, they will certainly try to get illegal votes cast and counted.

This is grass roots activism that the Tea Party can really help with, and get these polling places protected.

bonnie_ on September 29, 2010 at 4:00 PM

I’m just saying….

We might see 65 seats go to the GOP in the House…

I’m just saying….

jake-the-goose on September 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Heres how a RINO is concieved!!
=======================================
An Ugly Baby

http://hotair.com/archives/2006/04/25/an-ugly-baby/

canopfor on September 29, 2010 at 4:01 PM

Rubio gets every age group BUT the 20 somethings? Amazing to me. I guess young and family and fresh only translates to that age group if free gas free mortgage and free healthcare is attached.

Marcus on September 29, 2010 at 3:58 PM

In our GOTV efforts last Saturday, the top volunteer group in Sarasota was the “Young Conservatives”, which, from what I could tell, consists mostly of a bunch of very pretty young ladies. :)

ornery_independent on September 29, 2010 at 4:02 PM

Cool pic canopfor!

ornery_independent on September 29, 2010 at 3:59 PM

ornery_independent:)

canopfor on September 29, 2010 at 4:04 PM

Why would any sentient life form with functioning synapses ever consider voting for the most vile ,corrupt political slug west of the Rockies? (Hairy Reed)

Dr. Carlo Lombardi on September 29, 2010 at 4:08 PM

Rubio gets every age group BUT the 20 somethings? Amazing to me. I guess young and family and fresh only translates to that age group if free gas free mortgage and free healthcare is attached.

Marcus on September 29, 2010 at 3:58 PM

Happens in every election. Heck, even McGovern won the 18-30 age demographic.

Liberals tend to extrapolate that this means that the future will belong to them. However, virtually everyone turns more conservative as they start families, work for a living, etc.

Like Churchill said (paraphrase): “If you’re a liberal over the age of 30, you have no brain”.

Norwegian on September 29, 2010 at 4:11 PM

They each got where they are by defeating RINO’s.

Lowden and Tark were not RINOs.

Jon0815 on September 29, 2010 at 4:11 PM

There are no opponents of O-care in America. Never! No, fellow Democrat members of Congress, I am not scared of losing my seat and neither should you be!

Search for the truth. I tell you things and I always ask you to verify what I say. I told you yesterday that there are no dissatisfied people in America. You can go and visit Nevada. No dissatisfied person there. No one at all. There are only supporters of mine and Barack Obama except for a few crazy constitution clingers. Everything is okay.

By Obama, I think I will win in a landslide. Any talk of my defeat is merely an insane prattle. The fact is that as soon as my opponents reach Nevada’s borders, we besiege them and slaughter them. Wherever Sharron Angle’ supporters go in Nevada they will find themselves encircled by millions of my supporters. The Tea Partiers will be burnt. We are going to tackle them. We are going to hit them with shoes! My opponents are committing suicide by the thousands once they enter Nevada. Be assured, My Senate seat is safe, protected.

Jeckle on September 29, 2010 at 4:13 PM

Bennet wins younger voters (72% under 30, 51% of thirtysomethings) but Buck wins majorities in the rest of the age demos.

The Rocky-Mountain-High hippies in Boulder like Bennet, the grownups like Buck. Looks like Buck has the momentum here, and 51% will win any election.

Steve Z on September 29, 2010 at 4:14 PM

The Rocky-Mountain-High hippies in Boulder like Bennet, the grownups like Buck. Looks like Buck has the momentum here, and 51% will win any election.

Steve Z on September 29, 2010 at 4:14 PM

Buck will win easily, might even be in the double digits.

Aside from liberal enclaves like Boulder, Bennett has no support or enthusiasm.

Norwegian on September 29, 2010 at 4:18 PM

If Reid wins… I hope people boycott the state even more. Including the Casino owners.

upinak on September 29, 2010 at 4:18 PM

I think part of our problem in the CO senate race is our governor race is such a cluster****, sapping a little bit of the conservative enthusiasm. If we can get Maes to drop out, and have a chance at taking the governor’s mansion along with the senate seat, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Buck win by 10-12 points.

torerodrizzle on September 29, 2010 at 4:18 PM

If Nevada lets Reid win… that state has gone to the sand.

upinak on September 29, 2010 at 4:20 PM

Will be interesting to see how many of these races end up with a Republican win by a small margin and then several months of Democrat enforced recounts, complete with boxes of new unrecorded ballots being found in some warehouse somewhere, until the Democrat finally has a 2 vote lead and all recounts are stopped. Yep…going to be interesting…

BadMojo on September 29, 2010 at 4:21 PM

Yes, the 18-29 demo is chock-full of kids still trying to get used to not having someone else take care of them. They’re also freshly indoctrinated into a statist mindset by our educational system. Self-reliance and personal responsibility are scary propositions and when conservatives try to preach it, it’s received as if it comes from their own annoying parents.

CliffHanger on September 29, 2010 at 4:33 PM

Once Reid is defeated, who is going to be Senate Minority Leader next year?

Chris of Rights on September 29, 2010 at 4:36 PM

Here in Colorado, we really need to kick this appointed hack out of the Senate seat that the Democrats think they own.

Bennett is a pure hack, appointed by Denver mayor to run Denver Public Schools he failed at that. Now he is sitting the seat vacated by Interior Secretary Salazar.

SPQR on September 29, 2010 at 4:58 PM

Bennett is a pure hack, appointed by Denver mayor to run Denver Public Schools he failed at that. Now he is sitting the seat vacated by Interior Secretary Salazar.

SPQR on September 29, 2010 at 4:58 PM

Bennett is a miserable failure.

Btw, Ken Salazar’s brother John (another hack) is going down for sure here in the 3rd Congressional district. Betsy Markey is losing hers as well, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Perlmutter loses his in the 7th.

Net pick of 3 GOP House seats in CO this year. Bank on it.

Norwegian on September 29, 2010 at 5:08 PM

Wow Wedgi, you struck an entire comment. Man that’s cold.

mike_NC9 on September 29, 2010 at 5:12 PM

The NV. race does show it’s even but it’s really over. Reid hasn’t moved above 44% since August. Undecideds breat 2:1 against incumbent. Bye Bye Harry.

LFRGary on September 29, 2010 at 5:24 PM

CO is interesting. He was behind for a long time, really.

AnninCA on September 29, 2010 at 5:24 PM

Do you think that there are undecideds left in NV? The one thing about these races is that there is such a stark contrast that I’d guess most people have decided.

AnninCA on September 29, 2010 at 5:25 PM

I think NV will be an all-nighter and down to a few votes, in other words.

AnninCA on September 29, 2010 at 5:25 PM

If NV is still tied the day before election, Dingy will be able to steal it through the usual democratic vote-fraud techniques.

Who was the Republican who a few years ago said -”we have to win big enough that they can’t steal it”?

slickwillie2001 on September 29, 2010 at 5:41 PM

Who was the Republican who a few years ago said -”we have to win big enough that they can’t steal it”?

slickwillie2001 on September 29, 2010 at 5:41 PM

Hugh Hewitt – he wrote a book called “If It’s Not Close They Can’t Cheat.”

rockmom on September 29, 2010 at 5:56 PM

I agree with the post above that said Reid is toast. An incumbent who can’t get over 44% this close to election day is not winning.

rockmom on September 29, 2010 at 5:58 PM

Fox News reporting that Fat Al Gore will be campaigning for Meeks in Florida this week. Can Meek’s campaign donations be used to cover Al’s masseuse charges?

slickwillie2001 on September 29, 2010 at 6:13 PM

And here is the column that explains why Joe DioGuardi should be able to defeat Kirsten Gillibrand in the Senate race in New York.

http://www.americanthinker.com/2010/09/senator_kristen_gillibrands_re_1.html

This is a woman who could give John Kerry lessons in flip-flopping.

When that wacky wrecking crew of the Clinton administration, Chris Dodd in the Senate, Barney Frank in the House, and Andrew Cuomo as HUD Secretary were smashing the banking system by foisting destructive subprime mortgages on the banks, causing collapses, leading to massive bailouts and triggering financial pain and suffering for millions of Americans, right there in a key supporting role at Cuomo’s side as HUD legal counsel was…Kristen Gillibrand.

But wait until it really sinks in with voters in those five NYC boroughs where Gillibrand stands regarding the matter of the wisdom of inflicting upon New York and all America a giant Muslim mosque next to Ground Zero. She’s joined Mayor Bloomberg as a cheerleader for it.

Learn more about Joe DioGuardi at his campaign website:

http://www.dioguardiforussenate.com/home.php

Republicans need to be fighting for every single seat in the Senate!

Every Democrat is vulnerable in 2010!

wren on September 29, 2010 at 11:50 PM