Rasmussen: GOP leading FL, CO Senate races, NV dead heat
posted at 3:35 pm on September 29, 2010 by Ed Morrissey
These polls come at us so fast that sometimes it’s easier to take them in groups. Rasmussen has three polls out this morning on key Senate races, and they’re mainly good news for the GOP. Marco Rubio is in cruise control in Florida for a Republican hold, and on track for a pickup in Colorado with Ken Buck. In Nevada, Harry Reid remains in the fight of his life with Sharron Angle in a race that could decide control of the Senate.
FLORIDA: Rubio has an eleven-point lead over Charlie Crist, with Kendrick Meek still a distant third, 41/30/21 respectively. The good news for Rubio is that Meek has decided to attack Crist in order to get his base back from the converted Republican. Meek’s running ads showing Crist claiming to be the true conservative and real Republican in the early primary campaign, and most tellingly, praising George W. Bush and Sarah Palin. Until now, Crist splits Democrats evenly with Meek, 41/41, with 9% going to Rubio. Crist now only gets 15% of Republicans.
Rubio wins almost every age demo but the 18-29YOs, and has a majority among seniors, which puts a big dent in the hopes of his rivals. Crist still gets more independents than Rubio or Meek, but not by enough to make it a problem (38%, to Rubio’s 28% and Meek’s 22%). Rubio wins every income demo, with a tie among those earning $40-60K with Crist at 37%.
COLORADO: This race still looks close, but Ken Buck has pulled into a lead over Michael Bennet, and now gets over 50% of the vote as well when leaners are included, 51/43. That is an improvement for Buck in the last two weeks; previously, the split was 49/45. With two debates under his belt, Buck seems to have made Coloradans comfortable with his Tea Party support. Rasmussen has moved this from Toss-Up to Leans GOP.
Interestingly, Buck leads among men and women, and actually does better with female voters, 51/39 as opposed to 51/47 for men. Women are less certain of their vote, though, so this could change between now and the election. Bennet wins younger voters (72% under 30, 51% of thirtysomethings) but Buck wins majorities in the rest of the age demos. Buck also beats Bennet by almost 20 points among independents.
NEVADA: Rasmussen shows Harry Reid with a 48/47 edge with leaners over Sharron Angle. That’s a slight movement to Reid since the last survey, but overall it just looks like a virtual tie. Angle beats Reid with independents, 48/38, but otherwise the demographics don’t give a good indication how this race will break in the end. On the issues, though, Angle has the edge:
- Federal gov’t policies put nation on right course: 34/55
- Current economic policies Bush’s fault/Obama’s fault: 52/44
- Stimulus helped/hurt the economy: 31/52
- Obama approval: 47/52
Those voters who break late may do so on a referendum-type question as to which direction they want to see the nation go — and if they do, they’ll probably break for Angle. It may just come down to GOTV in Nevada, however, and that would give the advantage to Reid, unless the NRSC and the RNC put in some serious investments.
Breaking on Hot Air