Suffolk’s poll on Thursday was the first major poll to show Scott Brown with a significant lead against Martha Coakley. At the time, Suffolk gave Brown a four-point edge with just five days to go. Today, Suffolk surveyed what it calls “bellwether” counties — areas which reflect the state as a whole best — and finds that three of them show Brown up by double digits. Ben Smith quotes the release at Politico:
The bellwether polling, conducted Saturday, Jan. 16, and Sunday, Jan. 17, shows:
• Brown (55 percent) leads Coakley (40 percent) by 15 points in Gardner. Independent candidate Joseph L. Kennedy polls 2 percent, while 3 percent are undecided.
• In Fitchburg, Brown (55 percent) has a 14-point lead over Coakley (41 percent), with 2 percent for Kennedy and 2 percent undecided.
• Peabody voters give Brown (57 percent), a 17-point lead over Coakley (40 percent), with Kennedy polling 1 percent and 3 percent undecided.
Peabody is an interesting case. It is in the MA-06 CD, which elected Rep. John Tierney (D) in six straight elections. He usually gets 2-1 landslides for re-election in this district. Fitchburg is in MA-01, represented for almost 20 years by John Olver (D), who usually wins by 3-1 margins — when he’s opposed at all. Gardner also falls in MA-01.
These districts usually give big turnouts to Democrats. If I were Tierney and Olver, I’d start updating my retirement plans.