This is officially the Poll Of The Day™ on political Twitter because of what it portends about the Senate flipping this fall, but Quinnipiac’s had other Polls Of The Day™ lately that don’t look so hot in hindsight. A few weeks ago they found Biden up by an earth-shaking 13 points in Florida, normally a state that’s decided by a point or two in major races. Why, if he’s running up the score there, it must mean Democrats are headed for an unholy wipeout… or not. The three polls of Florida since then have had him up five, four, and three points — the last one having been conducted by a Democratic firm. Sure looks like the Quinnipiac poll was a major outlier. And not for the first time in Florida, as they missed by a cool eight points in forecasting the result of the Senate race in 2018.
So maybe we shouldn’t trust Quinnipiac so much. On top of that, the outfit is still polling registered voters instead of likely voters even though we’re now within three months of Election Day. Polling experts are also scoffing at their habit of using census demographics as a template for what the electorate will look like. If all of that’s too jargon-y to explain why healthy skepticism is warranted, here’s something in simpler terms: This same poll has Trump up on Biden by just nine points in Kentucky. He won that state by just under 30 four years ago. Biden has a comfortable national lead right now, but you’d expect it to be way more comfortable than it is to have him threatening Trump in Kentucky.
Still, Quinnipiac’s a respected pollster and respected analysts are taking this seriously: