This seems implausible, but it’s not the first poll to show the race there surprisingly tight. A survey taken last week found Graham up by four. Another taken at the end of May had it tied at 42.
Trump won South Carolina by 14 points in 2016. How can Graham’s seat conceivably be in play?
My first thought upon hearing that South Carolina’s become a Senate toss-up is “Aha, it’s because Trump is dragging Graham down. The president’s popularity has waned even in red states and now Republicans downballot are paying the price.” And that’s true: Trump leads Biden by just five points in South Carolina in this new one from Morning Consult, well off his pace against Clinton.