This is … quite an ad, its star the same Louisiana state senator whose “Why I Am a Republican” video went viral last year. It’ll do brisk business in conservative media but how about among the target audience of black North Carolina voters? Think people who’ve voted Democratic their whole lives will suddenly be receptive to a “stop reelecting your overseers” message? “I wonder if anyone’s poll/focus-group tested its impact,” says Dan McLaughlin of the ad, drily.
The last two polls in North Carolina have Hagan in a dead heat with Thom Tillis. At the beginning of August, she led him by seven full points in the RCP average. Today that lead has shrunk to one point, despite Hagan benefiting from a well-run campaign and the fact that a libertarian candidate in the race is pulling five percent, most of which would presumably go to Tillis if he dropped out. (And don’t forget all the non-citizens who’ll be voting Democratic illegally next week!) The trendlines are nothing but bad for her — except among black voters. According to the most recent Survey USA poll, which has her and Tillis tied, her job approval in North Carolina these days is 42/52; among blacks it’s 83/11, slightly better than even Barack Obama’s (83/13). She leads Tillis among black voters 85/7. The other new poll to show a tie, from NBC/Marist, has her favorable rating at 41/48 generally but at 73/11 among blacks. She leads Tillis 82/7 among black voters in that one. Of all the demographics to target in hopes of peeling away a few votes that’ll make the difference, black voters are probably the single toughest nut to crack in the Democratic basket. Which means this ad is less about flipping votes, I assume, than about using the election to put out a message that Guillory and the PAC want heard. Fair enough.
Here’s the spot, plus bonus video via Red State of members of another loyal Democratic constituency who aren’t real thrilled with the results they’re getting lately.