Study: Non-citizens are voting in federal elections — and probably tipped at least one Senate race to Democrats

posted at 9:21 pm on October 24, 2014 by Allahpundit

I’m thinking this is more important than a “Quotes of the Day” post, no? In fact, so jaw-dropping is it, I had to read it twice to make sure I wasn’t misreading it. The site that posted it isn’t partisan either: It’s The Monkey Cage blog at the Washington Post, a “data journalism” hub a la Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight that prioritizes insights gleaned from number-crunching above left/right argumentation. In fact, the conclusion to the post isn’t that the study’s results necessarily cast a pall over the integrity of some U.S. elections and even the legitimacy of ObamaCare’s passage. It’s that, among the possible solutions, maybe we should think about allowing non-citizens to vote.

Funny thing: I found myself nodding along this morning to this post by Jim Geraghty in which Jim argued that right-wing accusations of voter fraud committed by Democrats are overblown, a fantasy into which conservatives sometimes retreat to avoid having to grapple with electoral failures. His larger point is still true — massive fraud is very unlikely. But what about just a little bit of fraud in very close races? And what if the fraud occurs not on the back end, with crooked electoral officials stuffing ballots with phony Democratic votes, but on the front end, with non-citizens casting votes for Democrats without even realizing that what they’re doing is illegal?

Our data comes from the Cooperative Congressional Election Study (CCES). Its large number of observations (32,800 in 2008 and 55,400 in 2010) provide sufficient samples of the non-immigrant sub-population, with 339 non-citizen respondents in 2008 and 489 in 2010. For the 2008 CCES, we also attempted to match respondents to voter files so that we could verify whether they actually voted.

How many non-citizens participate in U.S. elections? More than 14 percent of non-citizens in both the 2008 and 2010 samples indicated that they were registered to vote. Furthermore, some of these non-citizens voted. Our best guess, based upon extrapolations from the portion of the sample with a verified vote, is that 6.4 percent of non-citizens voted in 2008 and 2.2 percent of non-citizens voted in 2010.

Because non-citizens tended to favor Democrats (Obama won more than 80 percent of the votes of non-citizens in the 2008 CCES sample), we find that this participation was large enough to plausibly account for Democratic victories in a few close elections. Non-citizen votes could have given Senate Democrats the pivotal 60th vote needed to overcome filibusters in order to pass health-care reform and other Obama administration priorities in the 111th Congress. Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) won election in 2008 with a victory margin of 312 votes. Votes cast by just 0.65 percent of Minnesota non-citizens could account for this margin. It is also possible that non-citizen votes were responsible for Obama’s 2008 victory in North Carolina. Obama won the state by 14,177 votes, so a turnout by 5.1 percent of North Carolina’s adult non-citizens would have provided this victory margin.

Obama winning a state illegally in a presidential election is bad but will be dismissed on grounds that it didn’t affect the overall result. Flip North Carolina to McCain’s column and it’s still a giant blowout. Franken winning a Minnesota seat illegally is a different ballgame. He was the 60th vote for ObamaCare. Replace him in the Senate with Norm Coleman and the law probably never passes. The authors are arguing overtly that health-care reform was made possible only by illegal votes. There are a bunch of races this year that could end up with whisper-thin margins of victory as well — Perdue versus Nunn in Georgia, Cassidy versus Landrieu in Louisiana, Tillis versus Hagan in North Carolina, even Gardner versus Udall in Colorado. If Democrats eke out victories in a few of those by a few thousand or even a few hundred votes, why would you believe after reading this study that those victories were fairly earned? And remember, as a Twitter pal points out, the numbers in the study are based on non-citizens who admitted to voting when asked. How many voted and were smart enough not to cop to it?

Read the whole post. One interesting detail: Less educated non-citizens were more likely to vote than well educated ones were. That suggests (but doesn’t prove, natch) that some of this illegal voting is being done out of ignorance. Better educated people know that they’re not allowed to vote and don’t attempt it; less educated ones don’t know, and therefore do. Another detail, an important one, is that voter ID laws seem not to work. Almost three-quarters of non-citizens who voted said they presented photo ID to get their ballot. If you want to stop them from voting, you’ll either have to insist on some sort of citizens-only ID (plenty of blue states issue driver’s licenses to illegals, remember) or come up with a new way to verify voters’ eligibility. There are a few caveats at the end of the post too about why the authors’ findings might be wrong. Expect lots of liberal pushback on this next week attempting to exploit those caveats.

Exit question: Does this about wrap things up for GOP participation in comprehensive immigration reform next year? Border hawks have argued all along that mass legalization of illegals is a ploy by Democrats to fast-track voting by a group of people who, on balance, support left-wing policies. Now here’s a study suggesting that not only is illegal voting by non-citizens already happening, in some key cases it’s actually decisive. How does a House Republican who’s on the fence about amnesty justify voting yes to his conservative constituents after this? And how does Obama justify an executive amnesty to centrists and independents who are skeptical but otherwise undecided?


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Comments

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 3:52 AM

Yep, 98% of them are in bed with the DNC. Do you read Newsbusters? The bias is outrageous.

cat_owner on October 25, 2014 at 3:57 AM

Key West Reader on October 25, 2014 at 3:47 AM

evening KWR..
sorry about the doggie..
is he out having fun.. or worse??

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 3:58 AM

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 3:56 AM

I like hard rock for the most part..not really soothing right now. :)
But I thank you~
Just catching up on yesterdays wonderful tid bits of news.

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 3:59 AM

Christien on October 25, 2014 at 3:56 AM

I chuckled.

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 4:00 AM

Glitter In The Air

this is lovely theater…

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 4:03 AM

Comfortably Numb

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 3:40 AM

Thought that was condition your condition was in.

31giddyup on October 25, 2014 at 4:04 AM

this is beyond sad..

“Iran executes woman who killed man she said was trying to sexually abuse her, despite international campaign urging a reprieve”

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-29769468#sa-ns_mchannel=rss&ns_source=PublicRSS20-sa

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 4:07 AM

For Wendy Davis, the hits just keep on coming. On Oct. 21, the Texas Democrat gubernatorial candidate (or her campaign) tweeted a picture of some young people with the accompanying text: “Go #GenWendy! MT @Lisa_in_Austin My friends and I just voted for a candidate who stands for ALL Texans! #MyTexasVotes”

Except they weren’t Davis voters. They weren’t even Texans. They were Virginia College Republicans, and one of them had posted the picture Oct. 20, after “door knocking for @ScottRigell and @EdWGillespie,” GOP candidates in Virginia.

The errant tweet is just another misstep in a campaign marked by incompetence, nastiness and a singularly unimpressive candidate.

http://newsbusters.org/blogs/katie-yoder/2014/10/23/nets-filibuster-wendy-davis

Hilarious. At least Wendy is going down to a crushing defeat next month.

cat_owner on October 25, 2014 at 4:12 AM

It sux effing ass..insomnia is a b!tch. ;)

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 3:50 AM

Couldn’t happen to a more deserving persion, could it? :)

Anti-ControI on October 25, 2014 at 4:12 AM

I chuckled.

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 4:00 AM

I slathered myself in Moose-grease and slipped into the fish-pond saying “oh my” as gay as I could.

. . . no idea what we’re talking about, but that’s prolly a safe stance.

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 4:12 AM

b9,

My bro used to hang out with Gary “Dreamweaver” Wright and jam. Hope you find a way to catch up on your zzz.

Christien on October 25, 2014 at 4:13 AM

I couldn’t sleep if my dog was missing, either.

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 4:13 AM

sorry I dint realize that pink tune was a cell cam from the crowd..
here’s the Grammy version..

spectacular..!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3stsDXki__U

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 4:15 AM

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 4:12 AM

lmao…you kook.

Christien on October 25, 2014 at 4:13 AM

Thx bro. I’m gonna use it to my advantage..head to the beach with some java and take some pics of the sun rising.

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 4:18 AM

It sux effing ass..insomnia is a b!tch. ;)

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 3:50 AM

….that is SOOOOO HOT!!…..but it might be good to add “out loud”…….

….as in: “It sux effing ass Out Loud!!…”

……all the other kids with the Pumped-Up Kicks better run, better run – out run my gun……

williamg on October 25, 2014 at 4:20 AM

cat_ownee,

For her final encore, Wendy will be pushed to her concession speech in a wheelchair.

Christien on October 25, 2014 at 4:20 AM

Hey will G~

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 4:22 AM

Christien on October 25, 2014 at 4:20 AM

Imagine if an R had done that ad? But Dear Wendy gets away with it.

Good night Hot Air.

cat_owner on October 25, 2014 at 4:25 AM

Have a cup of java for me B9. {{{hugs}}}

31giddyup on October 25, 2014 at 4:26 AM

31giddyup on October 25, 2014 at 4:04 AM

nope I am sober..

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 4:26 AM

Good night, Miss Cat. Pleasant dreams.

31giddyup on October 25, 2014 at 4:27 AM

sleep well cat_o… and be safe too…cheers

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 4:27 AM

Have a cup of java for me B9. {{{hugs}}}

31giddyup on October 25, 2014 at 4:26 AM

{{hugs}} Rhonda!
Sure thing. :)
I’ll send you a pic.

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 4:27 AM

G2M, until next time. {{{hugs}}}

Wmg take care.

Hope you’re having a restful nite OC.

G’nite HA

Blessings

31giddyup on October 25, 2014 at 4:35 AM

Hey will G~

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 4:22 AM

…...;-)

williamg on October 25, 2014 at 4:39 AM

have a pleasant slumber agent 31… be safe…cheers..

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 4:43 AM

PC run amuck…!!
this man lost his job over the phrase…”little girl”

http://bigstory.ap.org/article/b1a8a5903d01401f99331cd17c63ac8c/statement-ted-bishop-his-ouster

going2mars on October 25, 2014 at 4:46 AM

Please remember that those of you not #cotting Resist We Much UNTIL SHE AGREES TO ACQUIESCE TO YOUR JUST DEMANDS can follow her on Twitter @SophieRo3 and visit her site, Predictable History, Unpredictable Past.

For another point of view, visit Kingsjester’s Blog: Opinions from a Christian American Conservative.

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 5:22 AM

You can also follow KJ on Twitter @kingsjester1.

The site Liberty Unyielding features writers that used to post in Hot Air’s Greenroom, and it features J.E. Dyer and her exceptional insight.

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 5:26 AM

Good morning hotair imams!

Racistanyway on October 25, 2014 at 5:33 AM

Hotarians. Stupid auto-correct.

Racistanyway on October 25, 2014 at 5:34 AM

Taxicab Depressions has gained notoriety quickly, for it’s gritty, close-to-the-ground style.

Angrymikes hood is popular for completely different reasons.

Fausta Wertz specializes in Latin American “politics, society, and culture.” And, as you can see, RWM’s famous “Music to read by” is catching on — among those not #cotting her.

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 5:38 AM

Hi, Racist. :)

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 5:40 AM

HotAir’s own Listens2Glenn has a YouTube channel. You can probably guess what’s on it.

HotAir’s own INC really has no peer in traditional marriage apologetics (in particular. Upstream Politics.

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 5:47 AM

I think the famous Zombie is wasted typing text, but — if you want to know what really happened when the Progs had their rally, Zombie could tell you. It bore no resemblance to the news. If every American flipped through a Zombie Photo Essay or two, their perceptions of the Left would change completely and forever.

San Francisco Anti-War Rally, October 27, 2007

The “Walk for Life” March and Counter-Demonstration

^ Examples. See what I mean?

zombietime

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 5:56 AM

<– rubs fingers; goes for breakfast

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 5:59 AM

You should need an American Passport card to vote.

abobo on October 25, 2014 at 6:24 AM

How about those who are here illegally, know that it is against the law to vote, and didn’t respond to or lied to those doing the research? After all they are willing to break the laws of their homeland on emigrating, willing to bypass treaties agreed to between Nations for the orderly movement of citizens from Nation to Nation, and then willing to break our laws to get in and avoid law enforcement while here.

Why should ANY LAWS matter to these people? Heck, for the ones who don’t know about our voting laws, they already don’t care about their prior law breaking by realizing they are here ILLEGALLY.

So if you want illegals to vote, then why not send out a ballot to every man, woman and child on the planet so they can have a say in OUR NATION because, you know, its such a COMMUNIST THING TO DO?

And, yes, there are Leftists out there starting to push THAT and have been for a couple of decades. Illegals voting is not the END for them, but the BEGINNING. And they aren’t pro-poor, pro-dispossessed, or pro-anything… just anti-capitalist, anti-America and anti-human.

ajacksonian on October 25, 2014 at 6:31 AM

Ebola:
=======

https://twitter.com/AP

The Associated Press @AP · 2m 2 minutes ago

Female health care worker, 1st person quarantined in NJ after arrival from W. Africa, tests negative for Ebola: http://apne.ws/1wxFOpC
==========

The Associated Press retweeted
AP Politics @AP_Politics · 45m 45 minutes ago

In weekly address, Obama says science, not fear, must guide US response to Ebola http://apne.ws/1oFrzOI
========================================

The Associated Press @AP · 60m 60 minutes ago

MORE: U.N. health agency adds that nearly 5,000 people have died from the Ebola virus: http://apne.ws/1wrkH7D
============================================

The Associated Press @AP · 1h 1 hour ago

BREAKING: World Health Organization: Number of people believed to have Ebola rises above 10,000

https://twitter.com/who

canopfor on October 25, 2014 at 7:30 AM

Good Morning, y’all!

Funny. I never got a job from a poor man.

My take: Hillary Proclaims That “Businesses Do Not Create Jobs”

kingsjester on October 25, 2014 at 7:32 AM

http://www.breakingnews.com/topic/new-jersey-us/

New Jersey, US
Ebola outbreak 2014

13m
Health worker quarantined at NJ airport after returning from West Africa tests negative for Ebola, health department says – @ABC
Read more on abcnews.go.com
===========================

Ebola outbreak 2014
1h
President Obama commends New Yorkers for Ebola response in weekly radio address, does not mention 21-day quarantines implemented by NY and NJ for medical workers returning from hot zones – @Reuters
Read more on yahoo.com
======================

Newark, NJ, US
11h

RT @JoshEiniger7: #Breaking NJ officials say health worker quarantined earlier at #EWR has “developed a fever,” in isolation at #Newark hos…
— @ABC7NY

Partner
see original on twitter.com
===========================

Ebola outbreak 2014
13h
The enhanced quarantine procedures announced for New York and New Jersey to impact travelers arriving at JFK International and Newark Airport – @nytimes
Read more on nytimes.com
=========================

Ebola outbreak 2014
13h
New York and New Jersey to quarantine travelers who had contact with Ebola patients – @BloombergNews
Read more on bloomberg.com

canopfor on October 25, 2014 at 7:32 AM

Morning KJ:)

Have both grandsons,…oy:)

canopfor on October 25, 2014 at 7:34 AM

Morning y’all
I’m back :)

And this is what I wake up to….cripe

cmsinaz on October 25, 2014 at 7:36 AM

Great take KJ

Morning canopfor….enjoy your munchkins :)

+1 AJ

cmsinaz on October 25, 2014 at 7:39 AM

My take: Hillary Proclaims That “Businesses Do Not Create Jobs”

Well, not real jobs involving real work anyway. Everyone knows only government employees do REAL work, striving ceaselessly to better all of our fruitless, meaningless, and pathetic existence. All praises to our benevolent overlords!

Racistanyway on October 25, 2014 at 7:44 AM

And this is what I wake up to….cripe

cmsinaz on October 25, 2014 at 7:36 AM

Morning!

What a world we live in. Ugh.

esr1951 on October 25, 2014 at 7:59 AM

Indeed esr

cmsinaz on October 25, 2014 at 8:03 AM

I’m amazed that, in this article, they insist that “voter i.d.” wouldn’t solve this problem. Well, if Democrats are fighting it so hard, it certainly couldn’t hurt. Apparently, you have to have more than a few things at your disposal to defeat Democrats at the polls.

There’s only one thing I know, you can’t steal a landslide.

bflat879 on October 25, 2014 at 8:16 AM

Geraghty occasionally engages in political jackassery, and it’s no surprises to read about AP “nodding along with” his RINO analysis. As always, the only ones in this story who seem to know anything about anything are the conservatives who repeatedly warn about the dangers of allowing millions of illegal aliens to infest our country.

No surprise.

Jaibones on October 25, 2014 at 8:28 AM

if less educated non-citizens are the ones voting, then that also suggests organizations like the various Acorn spin-offs are responsible for registering them. Anyone ignorant of such a fundamental law as “only citizens vote” must have had a fraudster looking over their shoulder when registering and even when voting in order to get it all done properly.

That fact emphasizes how important the work O’Keefe and Project Veritas has done in Texas and Colorado this cycle.

MTF on October 25, 2014 at 8:28 AM

Non-citizens are voting in federal elections — and probably tipped at least one Senate race to Democrats

Yeah. And the 2012 ReUrkelection of Obama.

Key West Reader on October 25, 2014 at 8:44 AM

There’s only one thing I know, you can’t steal a landslide.

bflat879 on October 25, 2014 at 8:16 AM

They did in 2012. I seriously doubt that Obama was legitimately re-elected in 2012. Seriously.

Key West Reader on October 25, 2014 at 8:46 AM

I don’t know why anyone is surprised about any of this. In 2000 my neighbor and her husband were from Brazil. She told me how she (not he, for some reason) voted in elections all the time. They were NOT citizens of USA. Nope, there on VISA – not even sure they were illegal, technically. Arlington VA.

MistyLane on October 25, 2014 at 9:50 AM

And this is why democrats are completely against voter IDs.

sadatoni on October 25, 2014 at 9:52 AM

It sux effing ass..insomnia is a b!tch. ;)

bazil9 on October 25, 2014 at 3:50 AM

Couldn’t happen to a more deserving persion, could it? :)

Anti-ControI on October 25, 2014 at 4:12 AM

Good ol’ A/C. Always the perfect example of Christian love and charity.
Just ask him…he’ll tell you how Christ-like he is.

Solaratov on October 25, 2014 at 10:12 AM

YAY!!! Old Dominion University, my hometown school. I’m so proud.

Cindy Munford on October 25, 2014 at 10:18 AM

And this is why democrats are completely against voter IDs.

sadatoni on October 25, 2014 at 9:52 AM

Yes it is.

dogsoldier on October 25, 2014 at 10:51 AM

Good ol’ A/C. Always the perfect example of Christian love and charity.
Just ask him…he’ll tell you how Christ-like he is.

Solaratov on October 25, 2014 at 10:12 AM

lol

Karma can be a real b!tch… :)

Anti-ControI on October 25, 2014 at 10:58 AM

I found myself nodding along this morning to this post by Jim Geraghty in which Jim argued that right-wing accusations of voter fraud committed by Democrats are overblown, a fantasy into which conservatives sometimes retreat to avoid having to grapple with electoral failures.

Or as I call it, Loserspeak…

JohnGalt23 on October 25, 2014 at 11:08 AM

Said it many, many, times…. It’s only voter fraud if republicans do it.

ultracon on October 25, 2014 at 11:38 AM

Couldn’t happen to a more deserving persion, could it? :)

Anti-ControI on October 25, 2014 at 4:12 AM

Okay, I’m starting to seriously worry about you, this seems so unnecessary.

Cindy Munford on October 25, 2014 at 11:46 AM

Cindy Munford on October 25, 2014 at 11:46 AM

I think the best thing we can do is ignore.

Barred on October 25, 2014 at 11:54 AM

Barred on October 25, 2014 at 11:54 AM

You’re right, I am sure.

Cindy Munford on October 25, 2014 at 11:55 AM

he got to put a stop to this before its to late

gwhh on October 25, 2014 at 12:41 PM

Wait… “Non citizens”???

KMC1 on October 25, 2014 at 1:12 PM

Study: Non-citizens are voting in federal elections — and probably tipped at least one Senate race to Democrats

N0…you don’t say…

Huh, maybe that’s why there’s so up in arms about voter ID?

Naw, they’re just trying to protect the brown people from racism.

/s

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 25, 2014 at 2:46 PM

they’re…lo siento

Dr. ZhivBlago on October 25, 2014 at 2:47 PM

It used to be that the UDA sent observers to the Zimbabwes of the world…now they come to the USA and the Left win even more crookedly. What a land the USA has become, all self-made, intentionally.

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2014 at 2:48 PM

You’re all citizens of the world, rubes.

Shut up and work harder. The redistribution is in full blast.

Plus, “corporations don’t create jobs”.

Schadenfreude on October 25, 2014 at 2:49 PM

Okay, I’m starting to seriously worry about you, this seems so unnecessary.

Cindy Munford on October 25, 2014 at 11:46 AM

If only I cared more about what hypocritical defamers like you thought & said about me…

Anti-ControI on October 25, 2014 at 5:19 PM

In other news, Sherman is about to take Atlanta.

Ask Loretta Sanchez why.

corona79 on October 25, 2014 at 5:23 PM

Wait… “Non citizens”???

KMC1 on October 25, 2014 at 1:12 PM

Undocumented Voters™.

Axe on October 25, 2014 at 5:25 PM

Boy Bush,,,,”you viet mam vets trying to do border protection are “vigilantes” and I will have you in chains.

Puts in university of Texas former La Raza member Alberto Gonzales as Atty Gen. and then allows Gonzales to put Border Patrol officers Ramos and Copean in jail for doing their duty arresting a drug cartel drug mule.

Two Party Evil Money Cult

APACHEWHOKNOWS on October 25, 2014 at 7:31 PM

That is why the freedom loving Americans need to take back this country by force if necessary. The liberals are nothing more than criminal thugs, that have ruined the Constitution and this nation.

F_This on October 26, 2014 at 10:44 AM

So … why hasn’t this thread been moved to the left ?

listens2glenn on October 27, 2014 at 12:21 AM

Franken winning a Minnesota seat illegally is a different ballgame. He was the 60th vote for ObamaCare. Replace him in the Senate with Norm Coleman and the law probably never passes. The authors are arguing overtly that health-care reform was made possible only by illegal votes.

Combine that with this:

Audio: How the DoJ allowed voter fraud in Minnesota
posted at 12:34 pm on July 10, 2010 by Ed Morrissey

The only way that Democrats were able to get the 60 votes for cloture on Obamacare was by the combination of:

1) Stealing an election in Minnesota (Al Franken)
2) Changing the law in Massachusetts (Paul Kirk)
3) The vote of a senile man practically on his death bed (Robert Byrd)

And THEN, when Democrats lost the Kennedy/Kirk 60th Senate seat in January 2010 to Republican Scott Brown, Democrats could no longer break filibusters. And the House did not want to pass the Senate bill. For a while, it looked like a stalemate, and looked like Obamacare would die.

But the Dems finally agreed amongst themselves to couple two actions together:

1) Pass the Senate bill in the House (with weak promises not to fund abortions with taxpayer money), then

2) Pass a new bill in the House with “Fixes”, including the takeover of the student loan industry, and then pass that new bill through the Senate using the Reconciliation process, requiring only 51 votes. (A reconciliation process named after Senator Robert Byrd, who made it absolutely clear in 2001 that the reconciliation process should NEVER be used to pass something as massive as a huge health care bill!)

All of that was necessary for Democrats to pass Obamacare, against the wishes of the majority of Americans and against the will of every single Republican in Congress.

The whole process, from start to finish, epitomizes the very, very worst of politics in this country, especially the corrupt practices of the Democrat Party.

ITguy on October 27, 2014 at 8:23 AM

Cindy Munford on October 25, 2014 at 11:46 AM

.
If only I cared more about what hypocritical defamers like you thought & said about me…

Anti-ControI on October 25, 2014 at 5:19 PM

.
You certainly care about something … or you wouldn’t be here, telling us how little you care about what we think or say about you.

listens2glenn on October 27, 2014 at 9:57 AM