The exciting, and I do mean exciting, follow-up to last night’s post. Not until I hear the words “Coakley concedes” will I believe this is possible, but just try to wrap your mind around these numbers. The indies alone:
-As was the case in the Gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia last year, it looks like the electorate in Massachusetts will be considerably more conservative than the one that showed up in 2008. Obama took the state by 26 points then, but those planning to vote next week only report having voted for him by 16.
-Republicans are considerably more enthusiastic about turning out to vote than Democrats are. 66% of GOP voters say they are ‘very excited’ about casting their votes, while only 48% of Democrats express that sentiment- and that’s among the Democrats who are planning to vote in contrast to the many who are apparently not planning to do so at this point.
-Brown has eye popping numbers with independents, sporting a 70/16 favorability rating with them and holding a 63-31 lead in the horse race with Coakley. Health care may be hurting Democratic fortunes with that group, as only 27% of independents express support for Obama’s plan with 59% opposed.
Check the crosstabs and you’ll find Brown pulling 17 percent of the Democratic vote versus just six percent of the Republican vote for Coakley. Coakley’s net favorable rating? +8. Brown’s? +32. I won’t be surprised to see Biden or even The One himself forced to jet up there next week to try to get the base, especially young voters and minorities, to turn out.
Here’s Brown on last night’s Hannity promising to be the 41st vote against ObamaCare — assuming the Dems let him into the chamber. Exit question: If you’re a Blue Dog, how do you begin to process this information?