PPP on Massachusetts Senate: “This has become a losable race for Democrats”; Update: Dems prepping in case of Brown win?

posted at 4:45 pm on January 8, 2010 by Allahpundit

My feelings about the chances of a GOP win here are the same as my feelings were about the chances of a Red Sox world championship before 2004: I’ll believe it when I see it.

But I did see it, didn’t I?

-At this point a plurality of those planning to turn out oppose the health care bill. The massive enthusiasm gap we saw in Virginia is playing itself out in Massachusetts as well. Republican voters are fired up and they’re going to turn out. Martha Coakley needs to have a coherent message up on the air over the last ten days that her election is critical to health care passing and Ted Kennedy’s legacy- right now Democrats in the state are not feeling a sense of urgency.

-Scott Brown’s favorables are up around 60%, a product of his having had the airwaves to himself for the last week. By comparison Bob McDonnell’s were at 55% right before his election and Chris Christie’s were only at 43%. Coakley’s campaign or outside groups need to tie Brown’s image to national Republicans and knock him down a notch over the final week of the campaign.

This has become a losable race for Democrats- but it could also be easily winnable if Coakley gets her act together for the last week of the campaign.

Obligatory caveats: PPP got the NY-23 race wildly wrong and doesn’t offer any hard numbers yet to illustrate the trends it’s seeing here. Bear in mind too that pollsters from both sides of the aisle have an incentive to spin things Brown’s way. His only chance of winning is to have Republican turnout hugely outnumber Democratic turnout; every poll that shows him doing well fuels hope on the right, which motivates GOP voters, and fuels terror on the left, which motivates Dem voters not to be complacent about the likelihood of victory by staying home. In a post a few days ago, lefty Nate Silver pegged Coakley’s lead as probably around 15 points — before sternly warning readers never to take a special election for granted and insisting he wouldn’t be surprised to see the vote count last all night, natch. Every time Murtha runs for reelection, there’s inevitably some poll that excites righties by showing his challenger closer than expected, and every time he ends up blowing them out in the end. That’s what I suspect will happen here, but since it is after all a turnout game, make sure you circulate the PPP data to any conservative or independent friends you might have in Massachusetts who need firing up. Given the stakes, a Brown upset would be the biggest GOP congressional victory since … when, exactly? ’94?

You’ll find further anecdotal evidence that the Democrats are really, truly worried about this race at Legal Insurrection. I wonder how close it would have to get before every Catholic in the state gets a framed photo of Teddy and a single red rose in the mail courtesy of the DNC.

Update: Oh my. Maybe Brown is for real.

The notion of a Republican winning Ted Kennedy’s seat remains unlikely, despite (or perhaps because of) the recent hubbub around the race.

But it’s a real enough possibility that Democrats have started to consider the question. There are, it appears, two ways health care reform could still pass, in theory, after a victory by state Sen. Scott Brown in Massachusetts a week from Tuesday.

The first is simple, if controversial: Get it through between the time the polls close and the new senator is sworn in…

The second path is a different kind of heavy lift. The Senate does not, in fact, need to act on the bill anymore. It has already passed a version. With Brown seated, the White House could prevail upon House Democrats to pass the Senate bill as written…


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Massachusetts debate going on NOW.

Click “Listen Now 89.7″ link to the left.

Enoxo on January 8, 2010 at 7:19 PM

Believe and Donate!!

kemg on January 8, 2010 at 7:24 PM

I gave him some money. Our biggest Republican here is Arnold S.

PattyJ on January 8, 2010 at 7:25 PM

I hear ya, Allah.

But, this shtick of “Ted Kennedy’s seat”, really bothers me. I though we weren’t ruled by “Lords” or Royalty, but governed by consent. Ted Kennedy was no British Lord. That seat belongs to the people of the Commonwealth of MA. And the people of MA decide who should represent them in that seat. I thought the people were the “Lords”, not the Senators.

The fact that Democrats take that seat for granted as if it were a British Lord’s is anti-American to the core. Even Republican Senators are told when to pack and leave! (We remind them once in a while.)

newton on January 8, 2010 at 7:26 PM

According to Left-leaning PPP:

Coakley’s campaign or outside groups need to tie Brown’s image to national Republicans and knock him down a notch over the final week of the campaign.

And perhaps this is why it was wiser for the RNC not to have been vocal or big monetary supporters of Brown. When word got out to the conservative base, Brown’s war chest grew, and the word-of-mouth enthusiasm spread.

Grassroots activism is having a big impact on shaping the political landscape. Voters are disgusted with party and machine politics.

onlineanalyst on January 8, 2010 at 7:30 PM

Every time Murtha runs for reelection, there’s inevitably some poll that excites righties by showing his challenger closer than expected, and every time he ends up blowing them out in the end. That’s what I suspect will happen here

AP, you’re such an Eeyore. I do believe you’re personally invested in these gloomy prognostications of yours.

disa on January 8, 2010 at 7:41 PM

I think Kennedy’s seat is much like the seat of South Carolina’s former liberal democrat senator Fritz Hollings. Much like people in South Carolina voted for Hollings out of habit, I’m sure the same applies here. Hollings was 180 from what most South Carolinians held dear, but he got elected every time. Once he retired, Jim DeMint was born. Granted, SC is nothing like MA, but there are some parallels here. A window opens and fresh air comes in.

I BELIEVE.

SouthernGent on January 8, 2010 at 7:51 PM

This on RedMassGroup

Seatwarmer Paul Kirk threatening to stay in the seat, despite election results, until HC vote is taken. Governor Patrick will not certify election until after vote.

gopmom on January 8, 2010 at 7:54 PM

Kirk’s quote –

“Absolutely,” Kirk said, when asked if he’d vote for the bill, even if Brown captures the seat. “It would be my responsibility as United States Senator, representing the people and understanding Senator Kennedy’s agenda and the rest of it … I think you’re asking me a hypothetical question but I’d be pleased to vote for the bill.”

Brown campaign response –

This is a stunning admission by Paul Kirk and the Beacon Hill political machine today. Paul Kirk appears to be suggesting that he, Deval Patrick, and Harry Reid intend to stall the election certification until the health care bill is rammed through Congress, even if that means defying the will of the people of Massachusetts. As we’ve already seen from the backroom deals and kickbacks cut by the Democrats in Washington, they intend to do anything and everything to pass their controversial health care plan. But threatening to ignore the results of a free election and steal this Senate vote from the people of Massachusetts takes their schemes to whole new level. Martha Coakley should immediately disavow this threat from one of her campaign’s leading supporters.

We need HA readers to get on this. The MA machine is primed and ready to steal this election – after they lose it.

gopmom on January 8, 2010 at 7:55 PM

There was a lady who called into Jay Severin’s Boston radio talk show this afternoon to say that she was going to vote for Brown but wanted to encourage her friends to get involved in the race and vote for him too.

So she put her thoughts in an e-mail, took a deep breath and sent it to 100 people on her list. She worried that she would get flamed for it so when she heard her computer start to bing with replies, she let them build up a bit before she sat down to look at them. Within a few minutes, she had 26 replies – all but one were enthusiastically going for Brown.

The feeling on the ground here is that there is an incredible surge towards Scott – and that there really isn’t much that Martha can do at this point short of divine intervention to quell the momentum.

This seems to be an affirmation of Scott and his candidacy every bit as much, if not more so than a rejection of Martha. She is a weak candidate that has all but sat out the race, but even if she was fully engaged she brings a lot of hackerama to the table. Look up Fells Acre Day Care or Father John Geoghan for starters.

turfmann on January 8, 2010 at 7:58 PM

Spent New Year’s eve on ever-so-swish Cape Cod and tallied the Scott Brown vs. Martha Coakley signs. Brown was winning a good 10-1 or 10-2 margin. Now I still think he has a snowball’s chance…but I’m just saying.

Huckabye-Romney on January 8, 2010 at 8:06 PM

We need HA readers to get on this. The MA machine is primed and ready to steal this election – after they lose it.

And boy are they losing it. Brown just cleaned Coakley’s clock in this debate. Hell Kennedey was better than Coakley although he seems to think he’s running for Emperor rather than Senator. I am actually beginning to hope.

SittingDeadRed on January 8, 2010 at 8:06 PM

The time/role for the GOP in this election is to have plenty of poll watchers in place, lawyers on hand, and efforts to get the voters to the polls on Brown’s behalf.

onlineanalyst on January 8, 2010 at 8:12 PM

Every time Murtha runs for reelection, there’s inevitably some poll that excites righties by showing his challenger closer than expected, and every time he ends up blowing them out in the end

phht. talk to the hand “allapundant” – THERE HAS NEVER BEEN an environment like there is now

sidewinder22 on January 8, 2010 at 8:16 PM

Coakley really doesn’t want to run on her record, because it would destroy her. That’s why she’s hiding and hasn’t done anything until today–today was the first time she’s ever run an ad.

During the debate, almost every 5th word out of her mouth was about Bush.

Enoxo on January 8, 2010 at 8:23 PM

We need HA readers to get on this. The MA machine is primed and ready to steal this election – after they lose it.

gopmom on January 8, 2010 at 7:55 PM

HOLY ****! Now that takes some brass cojones to say publicly!

Thank you! I’m on it. E-mails are flying all over the place.

turfmann on January 8, 2010 at 8:27 PM

turfmann on January 8, 2010 at 8:27 PM

Well, I am a MA Teabagger so…

And the Tea Party is on this. But Scott needs the $ to keep coming in. Bill Clinton is coming to town next week. MoveOn sent out a plea this week. They are mobilizing, we need to be able to do the same.

You should all be contacting your Senators as well – the influenceable ones – about Kirk’s “I will stay in the office until HC reform passes” quote. All in the Senate need to understand we won’t wait for November 2010 if they pull that $hit.

Living in MA, I’m at the point where I have nothing to lose – we’ve gone all in on Brown.

gopmom on January 8, 2010 at 8:40 PM

We’re talking MA not Chicago. The Bulger brothers left the scene long ago and the rest has been running on momentum. There is one area where Acorn might have legs and then there is everywhere else which, is anyone’s guess. The MA machine ain’t what it used to be and you can’t fix it in the time that’s left. There is something in the air and it smells like Muffin Coakely’s fear.

roy_batty on January 8, 2010 at 8:53 PM

Living in MA, I’m at the point where I have nothing to lose – we’ve gone all in on Brown.

gopmom on January 8, 2010 at 8:40 PM

Didn’t you know? I’m here too! Are you volunteering?

turfmann on January 8, 2010 at 9:13 PM

Scott can win this race from the feedback I’ve gotten volunteering or not – there is a huge disatisfaction with current MA politics. I have another nut to crack but I think once she hears the families Martha is fighting for she too will have a quick change of heart. http://michaelgraham.com/

wubu on January 8, 2010 at 9:42 PM

Anybody have video of his debate?

PattyJ on January 8, 2010 at 9:58 PM

The fix is in on the race.

SED on January 8, 2010 at 9:59 PM

Let’s stop reading & commenting and send Brown some money. I made a $35 contribution a few hours ago, and I live in Illinois.

Owen Glendower on January 8, 2010 at 10:02 PM

I said earlier this week to hope for a major snowstorm on election day – cousin Pookie will never get off the couch to vote whereas fired up conservatives and tea-partiers would walk 5 miles, uphill both ways in 3 foot drifts, to vote for Brown.

PatMac on January 8, 2010 at 10:09 PM

Scott Brown can certainly win this election – even in the People’s Republic of Massachusetts.

With only 47% of the vote in the Democrat Primary, Martha Coakley didn’t even earn the votes of half of the Democrats in Massachusetts.

The key will be to get the Independents to vote for Scott Brown on January 19. And Massachusetts has lots of Independents!

Do what you can to help Scott Brown become the 41st Republican vote in the Senate!

wren on January 8, 2010 at 10:40 PM

AP, you say:

His only chance of winning is to have Republican turnout hugely outnumber Democratic turnout.

This could easily be dead wrong. According to Rasmussen, his biggest potential demographic right now is with “independent” voters. And there are indeed large numbers of them in Massachusetts.

Both candidates get better than 70% of the vote from members of their respective parties, but Brown leads 65% to 21% among voters not affiliated with either of the major parties.

Yes, he must do very well with Republicans, and there is no reason to expect he will not do that.

But if he draws a significant turnout of independents, who lean toward him in the percentages just detected in the Rasmussen poll (2/3), he will win.

The name of the game will be GOTV — if he energizes enough independents, it will be Senator Brown (D-MA).

Trochilus on January 8, 2010 at 11:05 PM

As for PPP, which tends to be a Democrat-leaning firm, their polling in NJ in the Gubernatorial race in November wasn’t too far off at all. I’d say they were as close as anyone was.

In their final poll, they over-predicted the results for the independent a little bit (they said 11 points; he actually got less than 6).

But otherwise, they called the race correctly for Christie, and within a few points for the actual numbers of each the other two contenders.

Trochilus on January 8, 2010 at 11:17 PM

Snow IS in the Boston forecast for Monday and Tuesday 1/18 & 19. That’s very long range though.

Pythagoras on January 8, 2010 at 11:25 PM

Fox News has been giving Scott Brown all kinds of love tonight. Smooth interview on Hannity and a glowing endorsement from Mitt on Greta.

Thanks everyone in the rest of the country for your enthusiastic support – keep it coming!

racecar05 on January 8, 2010 at 11:26 PM

Watch out for the push polling and the dirty Coakley tricks.

This is the same woman involved in the childcare molestation case, where there was no molestation. They were coaching the children.

maggieo on January 9, 2010 at 12:17 AM

My mum & I saw Brown’s interview on Hannity. We are in Sc & were both very impressed by this gentleman. I think he very nicely dodged Hannity’s wanting Brown to give Dear Leader a letter grade. There seemed to be nothing the bastards on the left could sound clip & use against him.

Mum said sort of what I thought, 2 yrs in the Senate & I’d support him in ’12 for the big ticket.

For the sake of the State of Massachusetts and the state of our nation, I shall hope and pray that he wins by enough that challenges won’t be easy to mount against him. Scott Brown being elected to the US Senate would be change I’m not sure I’d truly believe. I’ll be sending him a contribution. It won’t be a great amount but it all adds up.

I am afraid that the Dems will turn out en masse or will bus in their usual crooks to steal this one. If Brown is elected, Dear Leader’s agenda is done for. They’re going to get real dirty. If Brown does win & the Dems stall his swearing in until after the ObamaScare vote, I think that will only serve to rally the anti-Dem voters in November.

Hats off to Scott Brown! Godspeed to him & his campaign/election. I’ll be dancing & cheering in my front yard down south if he wins. Please, Lord, I’m not just asking for me but for the good of many.

PalmettoPatriot on January 9, 2010 at 12:47 AM

This is the same woman involved in the childcare molestation case, where there was no molestation. They were coaching the children.
maggieo on January 9, 2010 at 12:17 AM

I didn’t know that. One of the worst cases of prosecutorial abuse ever. Now she may be senator? Sickening.

rrpjr on January 9, 2010 at 12:49 AM

I just sent Brown $250 of my “Cornhusker kickback” bucks! Thanks Senator Nelson.

JetBlast on January 9, 2010 at 10:55 AM

Boots on the ground report from Cape Cod: yard signs now running 7 to 1 in favor of Brown over Coakley. This from a town that went almost 100% for Obama. Mmmm, mmmm, mmmm!

stoutcat on January 9, 2010 at 2:01 PM

I’m seeing @ 10-1 for Brown on signs here in Plymouth County. I’ve been in Marshfield, Hanover, Pembroke, Kingston, Plymouth, Carver, & Scituate over the past week. Lots of Brown signs everywhere.

You all in the other states who are helping, you are really making a difference by donating to Brown. We can do this. We don’t need or want Steele and the National GOP when we have the grass root conservatives.

LETS PUT AN END TO THE OBAMA PELOSI SOCIALISM EXPERIMENT ONCE AND FOR ALL!!!

shanimal on January 9, 2010 at 6:33 PM

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