Larry Sabato tweeted three hours ago that while she was making bigger gains than expected, there’s simply too much daylight between her and Miller for her to win.

Does Team Murky now agree?

In an interview with CNN, Murkowski campaign spokesman Steve Wackowski was emphatic that the vote could still swing their way. “We’re being hopeful, we want to make sure that all the votes are counted,” he said…

Wackowski was asked if Murkowski might concede the race to Miller once Tuesday’s ballot counting ends. “Unfortunately we’ve got all our options are on the table,” he lamented…

[T]he campaign spokesman said he foresees the Tea Party movement possibly doing long-term damage to the Republican party as it drives to root out so called “RINOS (“Republicans in Name Only”) in favor of more committed conservatives.

“They’re spending their resources to try to take down a fellow conservative. I wish they would’ve stayed in California, for instance, and fought Barbara Boxer,” Wackowski said.

Hotline estimates she’d have to take 55 percent of the outstanding ballots at this point in order to win — and most of those are from Miller strongholds. Someone at Big Government, citing sources in Alaska, claims that the trends are now such that Miller’s victory is assured. Big news, needless to say, but even bigger is the possibility of a concession without a recount. That’d be a huge help to Miller in freeing him up to focus on the general election. But if they’re going to bow out graciously, why dump all over tea partiers in the process? And … why would Murkowski bow out graciously, anyway? She’s got nothing to lose in contesting the results. Did some bigwig(s) in the GOP maybe let her know that if she’s interested in a lucrative lobbyist career after the election, she’ll go quietly after the absentee ballots are counted? Stand by for updates.

Update: The Anchorage Daily News isn’t quite ready to call it, but after the latest round of absentee counting, Murkowski’s chances are on life support.

It’s looking bad for Lisa Murkowski…

The Murkowski campaign was really counting on a big boost from Southeast.

That didn’t happen. The latest batch was a count of 2,760 votes. It brings the total counted today to about 15,700 votes. Still awaiting some more Kenai absentee votes and that will be all that is counted today…

Today was the biggest chunk of votes. Murkowski has cut Miller’s lead from 1,668 votes to 1,469 today. That’s not nearly what the Murkowski campaign had hoped for.

A question while the celebration’s momentarily on hold: Will Miller’s win embolden Delaware tea partiers to try to knock off Mike Castle in the primary? Because that will have grave consequences in a state that blue.

Update: From Swing State Project:

9:41pm: Murkowski will hold a press conference in twenty minutes.
9:40pm: Being generous, let’s say there are 7000 valid GOP votes left to be counted. Murkowski would need 61% of them to win. She’s done.

Concession time?

Update: Oh my. CNN says the moment of concession is at hand.

CNN’s Shannon Travis in Anchorage has confirmed that Sen. Lisa Murkowski will concede tonight.

I’m tempted to break out the Humpbot in celebration, but we must not taunt. There can be only one goal now: Increase the peace.