Rubio in 2012?

Something to chew on in light of today’s news about his monster fundraising potential.

A young state legislator winning a Senate seat and then using it to catapult himself to the presidency just a few years later? That couldn’t possibly work, could it?

The buzz for a Rubio candidacy is broad, and deep. Observers like Matt Lewis have made the case publicly, and my impression is that if a swath of conservative leaders haven’t talked up his candidacy, it’s only because they haven’t been asked. I was talking to the Southern Baptist Convention’s Richard Land earlier this year for another story when he brought Rubio up, unasked.

“The longer nobody catches fire, the more space there is for Marco,” he said. “It wouldn’t be unheard of for a freshman senator from Florida to be the nominee — particularly one who was speaker of the [Florida Assembly].

“He’s got more experience than Obama had,” Land continued. “There are a lot of Hispanics in this country who would find someone with Marco’s ethnic background very appealing. Although I like Sarah [Palin], I think Sarah’s got a lot more impediments to a nomination than Marco Rubio does.”

Follow the link for Ben Smith’s analysis: Essentially, unless both Crist and Kendrick Meek utterly collapse, leaving Rubio with a lock on the seat and plenty of time to campaign this year around the country, he’s probably too late already for 2012. Matt Lewis wrote about the prospect of a national run the other day, ticking off the obvious Obama-esque selling points: Charisma, appeal to minority voters, no paper trail, and of course immunity from the inexperience charge given The One’s own thin resume circa 2008. He makes a good point too that, counterintuitively, 2012 may give Rubio a better shot than 2016. Granted, he’d be more seasoned with six years in the Senate and he’d have plenty more lead time to mount a campaign, but the GOP field in 2016 is likely to be much stronger given that there won’t be an incumbent to deal with in the general election. If Palin runs, that’ll probably be when she does; if Jeb Bush tries to mount a family comeback, that’ll be his prime opportunity. So a quick sprint at the White House may be Rubio’s best bet.

But that doesn’t mean it’s a good bet. If Obama’s first term ends up being such a disaster that he’s truly vulnerable in 2012, Rubio will become the least appetizing candidate in the GOP field. The public will look at his inexperience and decide that it’s seen this movie before and isn’t much in the mood for a double feature. Which is to say, the Obama/Rubio comparisons cut both ways, and 10 percent unemployment circa late 2011 would not cut in Rubio’s favor. On the other hand, if the economy rebounds, then suddenly Obama doesn’t look so vulnerable — in which case, why would Rubio want to gamble on a hasty run in 2012 that’ll probably mean defeat? He’ll be formidable in 2016 no matter who he faces in the primary; no sense risking a premature run in 2012 and ending up with the taint of “old news” ahead of that campaign.

Let’s vote on it!