Rasmussen: Brown cuts Coakley's lead from nine points to two -- in a week; Update: Dem private poll shows Coakley by five

Too sweet to be buried as an update to the last post. In fact, if you exclude leaners, Brown actually leads by one — which syncs perfectly with that PPP poll over the weekend.


I’m starting to believe. A little. Maybe.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state finds Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley attracting 49% of the vote while her Republican rival, state Senator Scott Brown, picks up 47%.

Three percent (3%) say they’ll vote for independent candidate Joe Kennedy, and two percent (2%) are undecided. The independent is no relation to the late Edward M. Kennedy, whose Senate seat the candidates are battling to fill in next Tuesday’s election.

Coakley is supported by 77% of Democrats while Brown picks up the vote from 88% of Republicans. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Brown leads 71% to 23%. To be clear, this lead is among unaffiliated voters who are likely to participate in the special election.

71-23. Any reason to think any of those numbers are true, incidentally? Remember, the left would have you believe that all Rasmussen polls come straight from Satan’s statistics department.

Yeah, there’s a reason:

In a sign of serious worry about the increasingly tense battle for Ted Kennedy’s seat, the Democratic National Committee and the Martha Coakley campaign have blasted a private memo to top national Dem donors claiming internal polling shows the race is “very tight” and making an “urgent” appeal for donations.

The memo, which was sent over by a source, is the latest sign that the campaign surge of GOPer Scott Brown has caught the Dem establishment off guard. It admits that the mobilization by big national conservative groups for Brown is “working” and acknowledges that the Dem camaign is “having trouble moving independents.”…

“We have a battle on our hands,” the memo continues, beseeching donors to “max out” with a contribution of $2400. “We cannot win this race unless everyone comes together and gives this race everything they can.”


AP’s pessimism meter level: 2.5, indicating a mere likely chance of defeat, down last week from 9.5, a.k.a. catastrophic seppuku-inducing humiliation.

Update: Whoops, typo in the headline. Coakley’s lead was nine, not seven. Now corrected.

Update: Good news and bad news from Taegan Goddard. The bad? Democratic private polls reportedly show Coakley by five. The good? Last week, Democratic private polls showed Coakley by 14.

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