Poll: Trump Has a New 80/20 Winning Issue

AP Photo/Alex Brandon

Which issue? Three guesses, and the first two don't count. But if you guessed that Democrats put themselves firmly in the 20% fringe of it, take a bow. (Of course, that's a pretty easy bet these days.)

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Three weeks ago, Donald Trump launched Operation Midnight Hammer and destroyed Iran's nuclear facilities, including the regime's supposedly impregnable redoubt of Fordow. Democrats mainly arrayed themselves as opposing the action, with some proposing impeachment for acting without congressional authorization. Others insisted that Trump didn't need to destroy facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan, and suggested either that Iran wasn't pursuing a nuclear weapon or that they could build one anyway despite the strikes. 

Those arguments fell on deaf ears in the American electorate. According to the latest Harvard-Harris CAPS poll, taken after the US strikes, 80% of Americans favor blocking an Iranian nuclear weapon "by any means necessary." That includes 71% of Democrats, and more than 70% in every demographic measured by the poll:

On the strike itself, the numbers are narrower but still in Trump's favor. Americans support the strikes on Fordow and the other sites by a 58/42 margin, mainly due to 67% opposition from Democrats. However, Trump gets majorities from every other demo except 18-24YOs, where the split is nearly even at 48/52. Fifty-four percent consider Operation Midnight Hammer to be a "major accomplishment" by the US military, where most of the 46% considering it minor are Democrats (32/68), indies narrowly (48/52), and the same youngest demo (41/59). 

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Given the immediate partisan reaction to the strikes on Iran, this is a remarkable result. It shows near unanimity on the need to prevent an Iranian nuclear weapon and support for military force to achieve it that runs counter to nearly every political narrative of the previous two years. Supposedly, even some Republicans wanted an isolationist position, and Democrats were never going to support any such initiative by Trump. Plus, most would have predicted that Israel had become too toxic for this attack to generate support.

We'll get to Israel in a moment, but first, take a look at the other pie chart on this slide. Joe Biden spent four years attempting to re-enter Barack Obama's JCPOA, which would have let Iran eventually develop a nuke. Democrats have insisted that Trump's refusal to negotiate any deal with enrichment was not just provocative but represented a fringe position. As it turns out, though, majorities in all three partisan demos oppose a deal that does not permanently block Iran from developing a nuclear weapon -- including 58% of Democrats. And in the next slide, 86% support an American policy by which Iran is prevented from obtaining a nuclear weapon, which includes acquiring one rather than developing one on their own. 

What about Israel? Six in ten Americans believe that the US should defend Israel if Iran launches a retaliatory attack. That gets majority support in all three partisan demos, although it's basically a tie among Democrats at 51/49. The only demo that opposes it won't surprise anyone: 18-24YOs, at 37/63. However, only 17% of that demo think Iran should be allowed to "obtain" a nuclear weapon, and 71% support "all action necessary" by the US to prevent it. 

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Trump's other 80/20 issues continue in that same position, roughly speaking. On Israel and Hamas, Americans support the former 77/23, and it's 60/40 in the youngest age demo despite the Academia-led terror-symp movement. Americans split 80/20 in favor of a deal with Hamas only if all the hostages get released without any conditions, and again, that gets wide majorities in all demos. Fifty-six percent only want a deal where Hamas is forced to exit Gaza. 

What about domestic policy? Despite riots at ICE raids and hair-pulling by the Protection Racket Media, deporting criminal illegal aliens is still an 80/20 issue with the electorate -- 79/21, to be precise. Closing the border follows closely behind at 70/30. Sixty-five percent oppose "sanctuary city" policies, and 70% want states and localities to cooperate with ICE and other immigration enforcement efforts. The only real pushback Trump gets on immigration is in redefining "birthright citizenship," where he's on the wrong end of 65/35 support for the traditional definition. 

Most of the rest of the issue results are consistent with the Harvard-Harris CAPS monthly results all year. Americans want biological males excluded from female sports even if they have "transitioned" through surgery and hormone therapies by a 66/34 margin, and 61% want biological sex alone to be the official determiner of "gender" for men and women. Trump gets his best marks on Medicare price controls on medication. Voters also support most of the elements of the One Big Beautiful Bill., with the only negative outcome being the 31/52 result on removing tax and registration requirements for firearm suppressors. 

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All of this is clearly great news for Trump. It should also be a wake-up call for Democrats. Will they wake up -- or keep hitting the TDS Snooze button?

Editor’s Note: Thanks to President Trump and his administration’s bold leadership, we are respected on the world stage, and our enemies are being put on notice.

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Beege Welborn 3:30 PM | July 15, 2025
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