Still bouncing: New Gallup gives McCain five-point lead over Obama

This is the three-day tracker, not the daily snapshot, which has him up 50-46 among registered voters. Yesterday’s tracking poll: 48/45, with the pessimism meter fidgety at level nine.

No movement today on that. Not until he hits 50.

That [six-point bounce] is slightly better than Barack Obama’s four-point bounce from 45% in Aug. 22-24 polling before the Democratic National Convention started to 49% immediately after it concluded. Since 1964, the typical convention bounce has been five percentage points…

McCain’s current 49% share of the vote is his best performance in Gallup tracking to date. His five-point lead is his best since early May, when he led Obama by six points (48% to 42%). Obama has led throughout much of the campaign, and has led nearly all of the time since he clinched the Democratic nomination in early June.

CNN has it dead even at 48, but McCain now leads by one in the poll of polls. Zogby, meanwhile, is apparently claiming that McCain’s bounce started during the Democratic convention. Exit question: What can we safely conclude from the Gallup poll? It’s impossible to parse how much of the bounce is from Palin versus McCain; the buzz and public curiosity about her is obviously helping, but reaction to her speech was fully incorporated yesterday whereas McCain’s only finally landed today, with a two-point net gain. Isn’t the real lesson here simply that Obama’s supposedly epochal speech from Mt. Olympus wasn’t that epochal? 75,000 people in the stands to witness the apotheosis — and he’s five points down a little more than a week later. Keep smiling, Messiah.