Gallup: McCain 48, Obama 45 — outside the margin of error
posted at 1:24 pm on September 7, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Based on a huge sample, too, one-third of which was polled on Thursday before McCain gave his well-received acceptance speech. This is the first Gallup tracker to be conducted entirely after Palinmania on Wednesday night. Result: A three-point bump since yesterday.
Oh my.
McCain’s 48% share of the vote ties for his largest since Gallup tracking began in early March. He registered the same level of support in early May. This is also McCain’s largest advantage over Obama since early May, when he led by as much as six percentage points. Obama has led McCain for most of the campaign, and for nearly all of the time since clinching the Democratic nomination in early June.
Blogger’s pessimism meter: Now set to level nine, i.e. expecting a heart-stopping finish in which we lose narrowly but congratulate ourselves on making a race out of a campaign we should have lost by 15 points. That’s the highest level since February 2003. Exit question: What if McCain hits 50 percent tomorrow? Will the pessimism meter actually reach the mythical, long-rumored but never conclusively proven to exist level ten?
Update: Pop quiz. Which wingnut stooge said this?
Suddenly, Palin and John McCain are the mavericks and Barack Obama and Joe Biden are the status quo, in a year when you don’t want to be seen as defending the status quo.
From taxes to oil drilling, Democrats are now going to have to start explaining their positions.
Whenever you start having to explain things, you’re on defense…
As for Palin herself, she is going to be very, very effective on the campaign trail, especially if McCain’s people can figure out how to gently keep her from getting into confrontations with the press.
If she can answer questions like she handled herself at the convention, Palin will turn out to be the most interesting person in all of politics, and the press will treat her like they treated Obama when he was first discovered.
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NoDonkey on September 7, 2008 at 3:33 PM
Yeah, but not with the photoshops.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 3:57 PM
Alphie?
Seven Percent Solution on September 7, 2008 at 4:03 PM
I won’t then. Now say it with me:
Sarah-cuda
Sarah-cuda
Sarah-cuda….
FiveWays on September 7, 2008 at 4:04 PM
OT just sayin’ off hand, proof of injustice of the world: this site, Hot Air, should at least be the equal of the lazy, resting on old laurels Drudge Report.
silverfox on September 7, 2008 at 4:08 PM
Larry Sabato (Fox news) apparently using insider information from pollsters is forecasting a “huge” bounce for McCain in the coming few days.
KentAllard on September 7, 2008 at 4:09 PM
Whole Foods Lefties…..LOL!!!!!!
Winebabe on September 7, 2008 at 4:14 PM
To use an old cliche, Obama jumped the shark some time ago. He was a fad and after a while, like all fads, they run their course and fade away.
As far as Michigan goes, the picture of Palin, the world’s most famous hockey-mom, holding up a Red Wing jersey on Friday sealed the deal there. McCain-Palin will win Michigan this year, the polls numbers will shock people real soon.
PatMac on September 7, 2008 at 4:14 PM
I disagree with him on issues/politics but he is hilarious and has excellent political instincts. He was spot on, including the advice for John/Cindy.
On the polls, I’m with Limerick and TheSitRep – count yer duckies on the night of Nov. 04, or the day after, or the weeks after, if the lefties contest.
I hope that Obama stays ahead of McCain by a few points, clear into Nov. 04.
Entelechy on September 7, 2008 at 4:16 PM
Yeah, I agree actually.
Prepare to be disappointed.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 4:19 PM
*sigh* I’m bored. Where are the trolls? Where is Drywall and JG?
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 4:19 PM
Good point Entelechy. I differ slightly in that if McCain begins to hold a lead it will dampen the mythical “youth vote” turnout which is very unreliable to begin with.
A barnburner as you described may keep them in play.
Bradky on September 7, 2008 at 4:21 PM
Consider:
The Media’s disconnect with average America has never been more stark.
This is tandemount to an enemy who is completely misreading the battlefield.
The more they lashout in an effort to create and package the news against Palin, the more the public will reject them.
Look at the damage they have inflicted upon themselves in just 9 DAYS!
Now imagine the “pile-on” effect they will create in the next 2 MONTHS!
How do you think the already resentful public will respond to that?
Hmmmmm…..let’s see…….
FiveWays on September 7, 2008 at 4:21 PM
I love how the big-brained political savants at the DU and DKos always push the same strategy when things aren’t going there way: turn the shrill hyperbole volume up to eleven.
rsrobinson on September 7, 2008 at 4:22 PM
Obama and the Dems have been building up their machine in each state level for a long time now.
I don’t think this will be a worry when it comes down to the crucial two weeks before election day. I was a precinct captain in 2000 and 2004 for Republicans in Orange County, CA and, although people started to get fired up about the election(s) not much activity took place until just before the election. Basically we set up phone banks and people just showed up out of nowhere as volunteers. On election day they came out in droves to make calls, walk the precincts for GOTV and provide energy on that day.
Obama has shown strength in this area by setting up organizations all over the country in the primaries but these are quite costly. The most important thing to remember about Obama’s organization though is that he was able to drive numbers to caucus but only state by state. And his operation did this on a storm trooper fashion where they sent in ‘organizers’ in the weeks leading up t a particular election. He won’t be able to replicate that when EVERY state votes on the same day. In the primaries we need to recall that when Obama needed large numbers to come out for large states (and especially on Super Tuesday) his operations failed miserably. He was close in Texas because he ‘won’ the caucus side of the vote. He lost California, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and every large vote by considerable margins. That ain’t gonna cut it on a day where the entire nation votes on a single day.
JonPrichard on September 7, 2008 at 4:22 PM
Hopefully he’s right.
I have never trusted Sabato though-
There’s just something about that guy that just screams Democrat partisan hack.
FiveWays on September 7, 2008 at 4:24 PM
Using the data from the 2004 Presidential Election, I wondered which Pollster was the most accurate. I got this:
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1274530/posts
Battleground and Pew Research were dead on. I also noticed that Fox news was the least accurate poll. Interesting.
Sorry, I don’t know who to one of those hide-the-link thingys!
Neocon Peg on September 7, 2008 at 4:24 PM
Just highlight the text you want to be the link. Then click link and paste the url in the box. Viola.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 4:28 PM
Allah,
Lie down, put a cool rag on your forehead. It’s going to be a bumpy ride!
PattyJ on September 7, 2008 at 4:33 PM
I’ll make a prediction here:
This Election Cycle will give rise to a brand new media outlet-
News channels that police the media. We are witnessing the birth of the Cable Newsbusters Era.
You heard it here first……
FiveWays on September 7, 2008 at 4:34 PM
It wouldn’t disappoint me MDS, it would just be better, for myriad of reasons.
Entelechy on September 7, 2008 at 4:34 PM
We’ll simply have to disagree. I think a clear breakaway victory is superior to the last two tight, highly contested elections.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 4:36 PM
*sigh* I’m bored. Where are the trolls? Where is Drywall and JG?
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 4:19 PM
Bong, Nugget, & lighter…. Even for a Liberal, Sunday is a day to pray to the god of one’s choice…
Keemo on September 7, 2008 at 4:37 PM
Thanks for that insight Jon. But has his game changed since he clinched?
silverfox on September 7, 2008 at 4:41 PM
Neocon Peg, give it a try, if you’re so inclined
1. Click on any link with the left mouse button, to highlight it.
2. Click on it with the right mouse button, then with the left one click on Copy
3. Go to your comment on HA, highlight any words you wish to link to, then click on the blue link on top of the comment, between emphasis and quote.
4. When the little window opens, make sure that http is highlit, point your cursor on it, hit the right button of your mouse, select paste with the left one.
5. Click ok to close that little window, then continue writing your comment, or submit your comment.
Of course, you can preview it first.
MDS, either way, so long as we win. If we do, I’ll get drunk for the first time, ever.
Entelechy on September 7, 2008 at 4:44 PM
Obama has spent money big time here in Montana, and has made several personal appearances around the state. Obama has stated that Montana is going to be a “battle ground” state for him.
I can tell you this much; Obama signs were everywhere a month ago. Now, you see a few scant Obama signs here and there. Obama has lost his magical hold over the masses here in favor of the Palin express. I’m starting to see McCain 08 stickers on cars & trucks. When the McCain/Palin stickers come out, I expect to see a flood of them driving around. Sarah has brought much energy to the ticket.
Keemo on September 7, 2008 at 4:47 PM
It’s just a gut feeling, Keemo, but think this is going to be a redux of 1984. Obama will lose by a landslide.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 4:52 PM
I heard a tale from a guy who was a parking valet for a restaurant in San Francisco. A limousine pulled up to the front, and out of it comes Willie Brown, former speaker of the House in Sacramento, former Machiavellian power-broker cut off by term limits (Mayor of SF was his denouement). He asks for the keys so he can park the limo. Willie says to leave it there. He says, “But sir, we need to leave the front clear.” Willie, then SF Mayor, opens his suit coat to show off a pistol and says, “I said leave it.” “Yes, sir.”
True story. When guns are outlawed, only the outlaws have guns.
silverfox on September 7, 2008 at 4:57 PM
I’m thinking the same thing… I have no evidence or germane political analysis to point to however, I just have a gut feeling that Sen. McCain is going to hand BHO his as$ in a big way.
Claypigeon on September 7, 2008 at 5:03 PM
AP, this is actually w/in the margin.
.
the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
.
That means from both sides, plus and minus 2 to be in the margin, so you need to be at four (4) or above to be above the margin of error.
shooter on September 7, 2008 at 5:05 PM
Guys, guys, guys…
Aren’t there these ugly things called “October Surprises”? If I recall, Dan Rather/Mary Mapes were trying to sell some of those on 60 minutes?
Sir Napsalot on September 7, 2008 at 5:06 PM
You know what?
Look at an even better future, Obama will not be able to run again for a very long time, if he still has the ambition.
Sir Napsalot on September 7, 2008 at 5:10 PM
Yep. But by the manner of the slander against Palin, the press is actually making them invulnerable to that sort of think. Accentuated by the conscious decision to take on the press.
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 5:14 PM
I am keeping my fingers crossed. The unemployment rate went up to 6.1% on Friday when analysts had been expecting 5.8%. I worry that this will work against Republicans, it shouldn’t..but that does not mean it won’t.
On the other hand gas prices are coming down on the wholesale market. The lower prices should start being seen at the consumer level and that might off set some of the other not so good economic news.
Terrye on September 7, 2008 at 5:17 PM
Hell Yea, let’s keep the fight up!
Tim Burton on September 7, 2008 at 5:30 PM
Confrontation with the press? The answer is simple, have her carry her hunting rifle to each interview or run in with the press! If they get out of line, she can slide a round into the chamber and put on her motherly grin! With Palin as the VP, the press and those who intend to do this country wrong have entered the food chain.
I can see it now: (cue dreamy flashback-like blurs) Vice President Sarah Palin, sitting in the Senate President’s chair, watching the Senators speak and propose bills, through the scope of a hunting rifle. If they speak out of line, she only needs to say, “BANG”. Reform will come quick, but at the expense of many pairs of pants with high dry cleaning bills.
Honoris Causa…
Silverblade on September 7, 2008 at 5:43 PM
And then look for the Soviet-style purges in the Dem ranks as Hillary takes revenge on all those who crossed her in favor of the losing candidate.
PackerBronco on September 7, 2008 at 5:45 PM
Anyone seen or heard from Alphie?
Seven Percent Solution on September 7, 2008 at 5:52 PM
Landslide?
Hahhahahahaha.
Unfortunately, that ain’t gonna happen.
BallisticBob on September 7, 2008 at 5:53 PM
3 points is ALWAYS inside the margin of error in politics. I’m not going to let up for a second with my liberal teacher friends.
Sarah Palin victory theme song.
Led Zeppelin’s “Immigrant Song”
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
from the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
The hammer of the gods
Will drive our ships to new lands,
To fight the horde, singing and crying:
Valhalla, I am coming!
On we sweep with threshing oar,
Our only goal will be the western shore.
Ah, ah,
We come from the land of the ice and snow,
from the midnight sun where the hot springs blow.
How soft your fields so green,
Can whisper tales of gore,
Of how we calmed the tides of war.
We are your overlords.
On we sweep with threshing oar,
Our only goal will be the western shore.
So now youd better stop and rebuild all your ruins,
For peace and trust can win the day
Despite of all your losing.
Mojave Mark on September 7, 2008 at 6:00 PM
I don’t know about y’all, but I kinda like girls with guns.
rtsidedragon on September 7, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Alphie, yoo-hooooooo?
Seven Percent Solution on September 7, 2008 at 6:14 PM
here it is
Hey, I did it! Thanks Entelechy on September 7, 2008 at 4:44 PM
Neocon Peg on September 7, 2008 at 6:17 PM
P.S. the above is just practice and links to this page!
Neocon Peg on September 7, 2008 at 6:17 PM
Viola? I’ve done it several times without any stringed instruments, just percussion. :)
mikeyboss on September 7, 2008 at 6:23 PM
Uh, Blog Dog Democrats? Never heard of those. LOL!
LibertarianConservative on September 7, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Alphie? Poll Numbers…………….?
Alphie?
Alphie?
Seven Percent Solution on September 7, 2008 at 6:28 PM
Thank you too, Spirit, for your help! I’ve always wanted to do that, just like the big guys!
Neocon Peg on September 7, 2008 at 6:29 PM
Brown got the Slow Food idea wrong. Yes, part of it is local products, and sustainability, but “Slow Food” is the opposite of “Fast Food.” So instead of “fast food” like you get at any of the hamburger chains, modern, mass produced foods, the slow food movement is all about keeping our heritage foods in production. And the way to save something is to eat it!
For example modern turkeys and pigs. They have been specifically bred for mass production. The Broad Breasted White turkey comes to market in a matter of weeks. The flesh is dry and mealy. There is little or no genetic diversity and the whole population is at risk of a single viral strain wiping out almost all of the industry. Heritage turkeys, however, are the original breeds native to North America. The meat is moist and has much better flavor than the commercial turkeys. It takes months to bring to market, and they are raised “free range,” not held motionless in a small pen.
Same basic idea with hogs. Consumers have demanded lean meat, so commercial hog farmers bred hogs to be lean, with dry and flavorless meat. Heritage hogs are, again, the original breeds found in America.
If you are of a certain age, you probably remember Thanksgiving dinner at Grandma’s home, and remember her fixing a delicious turkey dinner, superior to what you find today. That’s because of the development of the modern turkey farm, and the genetic manipulation (through selective breeding) of turkeys.
Heritage Foods are more expensive, but the cost is falling. If you’re interested in knowing more Google “Slow Food USA” and “Heritage Foods USA.”
I’m not the type that joins organizations, except for the NRA. But I belong to Slow Foods USA because of their goal of preserving our heritage foods. I buy heritage foods because creating a market for the foods provides an incentive for farmers to grow those products.
Slightly OT, I know, so….even Steponallofus thought The One’s reference to “my muslim faith” was a slip of the tongue.
O-Dub on September 7, 2008 at 6:32 PM
lol
mikeyboss 1 my typing 0
Spirit of 1776 on September 7, 2008 at 6:36 PM
I think that’s within the margin of error. The MOE is plus/minus 2%, so if I remember my statistics correctly, a 48-45 McCain lead of 3% points is within the margin of error, as the plus/minus 2% can be applied to each candidates numbers. So, if the entire population were sampled (as on election day) with this poll the actual results could range from:
McCain 50 – Obama 43
to
Obama 47 – McCain 46
O-Dub on September 7, 2008 at 6:39 PM
+/- means plus or minus; not plus and minus.
If you believe it’s and, McCain’s lead could be 50-43.
lorien1973 on September 7, 2008 at 6:49 PM
If I know anything about alphie (and drywall), it is that they will play possum till the next ‘GOP scandal du jur’ or the poll # show Obama in lead again.
Sir Napsalot on September 7, 2008 at 6:52 PM
I think that’s probably closer to reality, but the final tally won’t be even that close. I’ve been saying for months that the polling is highly skewed, as people don’t want to be called “Racists!” for not saying they will vote for The Big Zero. However, come November, they will resent that as the curtain closes behind them in the voting booth, and will hand Obama his head in retaliation. I don’t think it will be a 1984 level of landslide, but I don’t see Obama taking more than 6 states.
hindmost on September 7, 2008 at 7:12 PM
Even money says the first head to roll will be Howard “YEEEEARRRRRGH!” Dean, that’s the most obvious casualty.
Thing is, considering how many of Hillary’s supposed “friends” threw her under the bus for Obambi, will there be a Dem party left after purging both the Obamites AND the “traitors”?
SuperCool on September 7, 2008 at 7:17 PM
Yep.
And it’s gonna be ruthless.
BallisticBob on September 7, 2008 at 7:23 PM
I also think it’s within the margin of error.
Gallup says this: “The general-election results are based on combined data from Sep. 4-6, 2008. For results based on this sample of 2,765 registered voters, the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.”
The McCain number could be two percent higher than actual and the Obama number could be two percent lower than actual.
jim m on September 7, 2008 at 7:25 PM
I make more than my share of typos; they usually don’t form other real words, though!
mikeyboss on September 7, 2008 at 7:38 PM
jim m on September 7, 2008 at 7:25 PM
Not going to matter much later in the week. McCain will be up by 6-10 by end of this week. Obama is a rookie Junior Senator from the Chicago mob-thug brand of politics; he is the most Liberal person to ever run for the office of potus; and he has made really bad choices with the people he allowed to influence him over the past 20 years minimum; his wife comes off as an angry & bitter woman despite the fact that she is better off than most of will ever dream of being.
Obama has way too many negatives, and now Sarah is soaking up all of the energy. Obama’s numbers are going to drop like a lead weight, as they should. This man was not ready for this position, 8-12 years to early. The DNC should have never allowed this run at this time. The DNC should have allowed Hillary her shot, and told Obama to study up, learn the ways, and get some bills passed; that his turn would come. The DNC must really hate the Clinton’s to have allowed Obama this chance, while risking the destruction of Obama’s career by putting him in this position so far ahead of schedule.
Keemo on September 7, 2008 at 8:12 PM
Very good question. I suspect that when – not if – Obama loses, there will be internecine warfare in the Democrat Party the likes of which have not been seen since Stalin purged the Communist Party in the USSR. I’m laying up a HUGE supply of microwave popcorn in anticipation.
ManlyRash on September 7, 2008 at 9:10 PM
I wonder about the Charles Krauthammer’s worry over Gov. Palin’s ‘qualifications’ (and Mort Kondracke’s skepticism) to be Commander-in-Chief.
Considering there are only two candidates left on McCain’s ’short list’: Gov. Pawlenty and Gov. Palin.
Are these pundits also going to worry about Pawlenty’s ‘qualifications’? If not, what resume and or experience does Pawlenty have that ease their worry?
Are they implying Gov. Palin would not be a ‘quick learner’ then? Because from where I am sitting, Gov. Pawlenty is just as ‘inexperienced’.
Mort Kondracke is especially insincere: according to him, unless the choice is a long time Washington Insider, he doesn’t consider anybody ‘experienced’.
Sir Napsalot on September 7, 2008 at 9:18 PM
The right/left split among the electorate has been 60%/30% for some time (question D3 for those that have read the post)… 60% consider themselves somewhat convervative to conservative while 30% consider themselves somewhat liberal to liberal. President Clinton failed to get 50% of the vote in both his wins. An argument can be made that if there were no Ross Perot, there would have been no Democrat holding the White House in the last 50 years other than Carter’s 4 years in response to Watergate… and that only serves as a good example of why they shouldn’t.
If the morons in congress (Republican morons as opposed to Democrat morons) had simply done a good job of policing their own and adhering to basic conservative principles, even that would not have been lost. Sarah Palin, if nothing else, proves the value of going after corruption no matter which side of the aisle it’s on. Defending someone because they are on your side of the aisle is always a loser.
What’s that line from “Bull Durham”… baseball is a simple game, you throw the ball, you hit the ball, you catch the ball. Fundamental conservative politics works every time. Every problem we face in our society today is, in one way or another, the result of deviating from those fundamentals. Political corruption, corporate corruption, welfare mess, an insane legal system… you name it.
CC
CapedConservative on September 7, 2008 at 9:20 PM
Back in the 90’s, my sister and I went to DC for a little protest of President Clinton…. Drudge was there, Coulter was there… it was fun. Anyway, the afternoon we arrived, we headed out to a bar/restaurant for the evening. As we sat quietly in a booth enjoying ourselves, we could hear conversations all around us by Washington Worker Bees… our civil servants. Their view of the general population outside of government was amazing. The disdain they had for “regular folks” was disgusting. In their view, we should simply shut up and send money… no input wanted or needed. They know what’s best.
On a lighter side, the next day at the event, a couple of big black Suburbans with government tags pulled up to the event and were taking photos out the front windows. When I walked closer to one of them, the driver’s window went down and a clean cut guy with an ear bud gave me a thumbs up.
CC
CapedConservative on September 7, 2008 at 9:30 PM
We got the hill guys, but we haven’t won the war yet. It’s too early to start declaring victory. Let’s just take an extra slice of pie after dinner tonight and hunker down for tomorrow.
Grab a beer and settle in.
baxtrice on September 7, 2008 at 9:40 PM
So in the latest poll, McCain is up 10 among likely voters? When was the last time a Republican presidential candidate was up double digits two months before the election?
18-1 on September 7, 2008 at 9:42 PM
Well, I think that you need to differentiate between serious conservatives (of various stripes) and the rather large “middle” that is in theory conservative but doesn’t follow politics well enough to really get the dynamics of our system. These are the people that voted for Clinton’s middle class tax cut.
Or, in other words, if you give people a list of conservative and liberal principles in a fair telling and force them to pick one or the other, sure you’ll get something like 60-40.
But actually figuring out what effect one’s vote will have requires some work, and this “middle” group is largely willing to be spoon fed MSM talking points in small doses…
18-1 on September 7, 2008 at 9:50 PM
Maverick/SarahCuda ‘08
glendower on September 7, 2008 at 9:52 PM
She already dealt with John Edwards pretty effectively, don’t you think?
18-1 on September 7, 2008 at 10:02 PM
Perhaps the Obama fad is starting to fad, and about as quickly as it started. It certainly always seemed more a fad then a political movement. And unfortunately for Obama, there is nothing the public likes less then last season’s big thing.
18-1 on September 7, 2008 at 10:12 PM
Two months is an eternity in politics.
McCain should be ahead right after the GOP convention.
I’ve recently moved to Texas and have seen only one McCain sign/bumper sticker.
jim m on September 7, 2008 at 10:24 PM
What a club, indeed, Peg and MDS. It’s a great life :)
Entelechy on September 8, 2008 at 1:35 AM
That other Gallup poll has McCain at 54%. Over fifty percent is good. No one cares?
petunia on September 8, 2008 at 1:39 PM
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