Zogby: Palin may have neutralized Obama's convention bounce

The euphoria has finally worn off, leaving a hitherto pessimistic blogger in full-blown panic mode over a complete wild card being slapped onto the table. Tossed about in a roiling sea of heart-ache, he reaches for the thinnest, weakest plank of hope within his grasp: A Zogby poll.

Has it come to this, my friends? Convincing ourselves that everything’s going to be okay with data harvested by a guy who blew the California primary by 23 points?

With this I bid my last shred of credibility farewell.

Republican John McCain’s surprise announcement Friday of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate – some 16 hours after Democrat Barack Obama’s historic speech accepting his party’s presidential nomination – has possibly stunted any Obama convention bump, the latest Zogby Interactive flash poll of the race shows…

The interactive online Zogby survey shows that both Obama and McCain have solidified the support among their own parties – Obama won 86% support of Democrats and McCain 89% of Republicans in a two-way head-to-head poll question not including the running mates. When Biden and Palin are added to the mix, Obama’s Democratic support remains at 86%, while McCain’s increases to 92%

Overall, 52% said the selection of Palin as the GOP vice presidential nominee helps the Republican ticket, compared to 29% who said it hurt. Another 10% said it made no difference, while 10% were unsure. Among independent voters, 52% said it helps, while 26% said it would hurt. Among women, 48% said it would help, while 29% said it would hurt the GOP ticket. Among Republicans, the choice was a big hit – as 87% said it would help, and just 3% said it would hurt.

Asking if Palin helps or hurts the ticket seems like a reasonable proxy for asking whether you’re more or less likely to vote for it, in which case these numbers don’t square with Gallup’s. The margin there was only +7 overall and +9 among women. I don’t know about those GOP numbers, either. The phenomenon of Palinmania means they’re not wholly out of the realm of possibility, but … only three percent think she’ll hurt the ticket with her resume as thin as it is? I know we’re cocooning to some extent over the past 36 hours, but man, that’s some extent.

Exit question: Acknowledging that hard drugs are illegal and therefore shouldn’t be used, couldn’t one make a moral claim that using them while watching the vice-presidential debate to avert a nervous breakdown is better on balance for society?