Zogby on being off by 23 points in California: These things happen
posted at 5:50 pm on February 6, 2008 by Allahpundit
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Credit where it’s due: He had the spreads in both races almost right. He just, um, got the winners and losers wrong.
Some of you may have noticed.
About California: Some of you may have noticed our pre-election polling differed from the actual results. It appears that we underestimated Hispanic turnout and overestimated the importance of younger Hispanic voters. We also overestimated turnout among African-American voters. Those of you who have been following our work know that we have gotten 13 out of 17 races right this year, and so many others over the years. This does happen.
Exit question: Papa Bear says he’s learned his lesson and will drink no more from the well of Zogby. Blogospheric boycott too?
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James (”Jim”) J. Zogby (Arabic,جيمس زغبي) is the founder and president of the Washington, D.C.-based Arab American Institute. In 2001, Zogby was elected to the Executive Committee of the United States Democratic National Committee (DNC).
Zogby is also a senior analyst with the polling firm Zogby International, founded and managed by his brother John Zogby, and is a prominent lecturer and scholar on Middle East issues.
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 5:54 PM
The fix is in. Gregoire in WA state showed how to steal elections.
It’s happening right in front of our eyes.
mksmithwriter on February 6, 2008 at 5:55 PM
I’m a personal fan of the Hot Air method – give us the information with a nice side of “for whatever it’s worth”.
TX Mom on February 6, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Anything from the DNC I take with a Grain of Salt.
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 5:55 PM
Wait. I thought only hypocrites, sycophants or the delusional questioned the accuracy of polls. I’m so confused now. I don’t know what I am…….help!
TheBigOldDog on February 6, 2008 at 5:55 PM
James Zogby is his brother. John Zogby is the pollster. And what does that have to do with him screwing up the Democratic polls?
Survey USA called the race exactly right. There’s no fix. Zogby’s poll was simply crap.
Allahpundit on February 6, 2008 at 5:56 PM
Why not boycott all of them? NH proved that the pollsters’ sampling methods are woefully anachronistic. They royally botched that primary.
fourstringfuror on February 6, 2008 at 5:57 PM
No, hypocrites, sycophants, and the delusional question the accuracy of all polls. See this one?
Allahpundit on February 6, 2008 at 5:58 PM
Zogby was awful. And not only in California.
Does anyone know how their polling techniques differ from say Survey USA?
Pax americana on February 6, 2008 at 5:59 PM
They obviously wanted Romney to win, to keep him in the race, to keep us fighting amongst ourselves longer.
Open your eyes.
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 5:59 PM
What does that have to bad polling? I am absolutely not a Gregoire supporter (go Dino!) but as I recall this was an issue of alleged (wink, wink) voter fraud.
fourstringfuror on February 6, 2008 at 5:59 PM
How in the world can you make any substantive judgment without complete and accurate information on the methodologies used along with details on how they were executed?
You have to get your head around the fact that you can accidentally arrive at the right result. Ask my 8 year old. He does it all the time.
TheBigOldDog on February 6, 2008 at 5:59 PM
The Zogby “secret sauce” never seems to work.
phronesis on February 6, 2008 at 6:00 PM
So they intentionally screwed up the Democratic race, too, thereby further destroying their reputation?
amerpundit on February 6, 2008 at 6:01 PM
2008 Pollster Report Card Through Super Tuesday
bnelson44 on February 6, 2008 at 6:03 PM
2008 Pollster Report Card Through Super Tuesday — Includes All Pollsters
bnelson44 on February 6, 2008 at 6:04 PM
Zogby used to be dead-on 10 years ago but he’s missing something in the methodology since then.
Jim-Rose on February 6, 2008 at 6:05 PM
Zogby is still living off of his reputation for being closer to the final results of the 1996 presidential election than anyone else. He’s been badly wrong dozens of times since then (anyone remember when he said it was Kerry’s election to lose?). I honestly can’t understand why so many people overlook that while pointing to the one time he got it right.
thirteen28 on February 6, 2008 at 6:05 PM
Suspicions about ARG: Confirmed.
Allahpundit on February 6, 2008 at 6:05 PM
Don’t ask.
fourstringfuror on February 6, 2008 at 6:05 PM
13 of 17.
That’s about 76% and where I went to school that’s a “C”. You won’t get into the good schools with that kind of GPA, Zogby.
BacaDog on February 6, 2008 at 6:06 PM
That was intensional, to be able to explain away the mistake.
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 6:06 PM
Yea, you were right about those guys
bnelson44 on February 6, 2008 at 6:07 PM
It’s not beyond the realms of possibility that agenda driven polling exists, but it is hard to figure out to what ends it would work. A bad poll for one candidate may spur his or her supporters into action, but it could also cause them to throw in the towel. On the Dem side there has long been moaning about Zogby’s pro-Obama bias through their polling techniques (such as overestimating African-American turnout).
Pax americana on February 6, 2008 at 6:07 PM
See it a was a bi-partisan F-up.. (nothing to see here)
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 6:08 PM
Ras polls, are the worst IMHO..(someone needs to kill that daily tracking)
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 6:09 PM
Zogby is always smoking something up there in Utica. A dead end Hillbilly town in upstate New York (I know, I grew up in those parts). As always, his predictions are skewed 180 degrees. If he does take a poll it’s of 500 people and he thinks he can call a state with 30 million people. Personally, I think he just keeps his name in there as an expert by taking the average of all the other pollers and calls it his own…
.
Yeah! Romney up +8 in California. Must be that local weed again. You have to get some good stuff so you don’t hallucinate anymore…
stacman on February 6, 2008 at 6:09 PM
Zogby was the only one to call the 1994 GOP landslide and thus became Rush’s favorite pollster.
Valiant on February 6, 2008 at 6:12 PM
You’re being way overpaid. There has to have been an average HA IQ reduction of at least 40 points since the last registration, and that’s only due to about a half dozen posters. Be loud and be proud.
a capella on February 6, 2008 at 6:12 PM
I take that as a compliment.. Sounds like you believe the latest registration let in some smart folks? >:}
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 6:18 PM
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 5:59 PM
You’re being way overpaid. There has to have been an average HA IQ reduction of at least 40 points since the last registration, and that’s only due to about a half dozen posters. Be loud and be proud.
a capella on February 6, 2008 at 6:12 PM
The Hammer knows all. The Hammer tells us when to start commenting, and when to stop commenting. If you stray, you’ll be subjected to hundreds of meaningless single sentence posts with random faces. Thank you Hammer for your wisdom.
Cold Steel on February 6, 2008 at 6:21 PM
I kid a capella, but i will not vote for Hillary! :)
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 6:22 PM
Hey everyone, can I get me some applause already!
(I wish this website had smilies)
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 6:24 PM
I get it now. Zogby’s estimations would have been right on the money were it not for his foolish underestimating and overestimating.
Okey Dokey.
fogw on February 6, 2008 at 6:26 PM
Whew! Good thing I raised it by so many points or just think how awful the average would be! ;-)
TX Mom on February 6, 2008 at 6:27 PM
Other than that they were spot on
ronsfi on February 6, 2008 at 6:28 PM
You’re joking, right?
amerpundit on February 6, 2008 at 6:29 PM
My Obama loving friends in Colorado were hoping so much for that Zogby polled to be right. Of course, I warned them not to trust this guy. He is never right and most pundits don’t use him. Of course the MSM uses him because he always goes with the person they love to push on the American people.
msipes on February 6, 2008 at 6:41 PM
Liberal pollsters:
What??? Wishing for something doesn’t make it actually happen???
landlines on February 6, 2008 at 6:45 PM
Ain’t that the truth! Rossi 08!!
ihasurnominashun on February 6, 2008 at 6:48 PM
I say give him another chance provided he promises to stand closer to his dartboard.
Dusty on February 6, 2008 at 6:51 PM
The polls influence voting. Period. They should have to pay fines for every percentage point they are off.
No one else would get away with such incompetence.
stenwin77 on February 6, 2008 at 7:04 PM
She’s not my governor.
fourstringfuror on February 6, 2008 at 7:05 PM
Underestimated Hispanic turnout? Come on. You could have thought up a better lie than that.
SoulGlo on February 6, 2008 at 7:07 PM
Yea! Make them do something..
the get paid either way..
Chakra Hammer on February 6, 2008 at 7:43 PM
Zogby has never had an accurate poll. Reading his polls is like reading the coffee grounds in the bottom of your cup.
cjs1943 on February 6, 2008 at 8:32 PM
Except the grounds in the bottom of the cup accurately and consistently reflect what has been consumed.
TheBigOldDog on February 6, 2008 at 9:44 PM
Hmmm. Spoken like a true atheist.
Zetterson on February 7, 2008 at 10:31 AM
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