At long, long last, we’ve reached the mouth of the river Denial. I can’t quote much because it’s the AP, but there’s no earthly excuse not to read all of this one anyway. Do note the biographical info on the authors at the end, too. This isn’t a pair of stringers talking. These are their two top guys throwing their full weight behind the conclusion.

Insurgency effectively over, militias largely discredited, violence creeping ever downward, war supporters coast to coast knocking as hard as they can on wood:

This amounts to more than a lull in the violence. It reflects a fundamental shift in the outlook for the Sunni minority, which held power under Saddam Hussein. They launched the insurgency five years ago. They now are either sidelined or have switched sides to cooperate with the Americans in return for money and political support…

Iraqi authorities have grown dependent on the U.S. military after more than five years of war. While they are aiming for full sovereignty with no foreign troops on their soil, they do not want to rush. In a similar sense, the Americans fear that after losing more than 4,100 troops, the sacrifice could be squandered.

U.S. commanders say a substantial American military presence will be needed beyond 2009. But judging from the security gains that have been sustained over the first half of this year — as the Pentagon withdrew five Army brigades sent as reinforcements in 2007 — the remaining troops could be used as peacekeepers more than combatants.

If you’re unwilling to take their word for the fact that normalcy is returning to Baghdad, good news — you don’t have to. So unusual is upbeat reporting about the war (although it does exist, even in the New York Times) that I’m tempted to hunt here for a hidden agenda, but if this is designed to benefit Obama or the left, those boldfaced parts certainly are a nuanced way to go about it.

For your companion reading, devote three minutes to Michael Totten’s short but insightful analysis of the three Iraq wars. Two of them are already won, sufficiently so that, per MNF calculations, there wasn’t a single sectarian killing in Iraq in the past two months. As for the third war, like I say, read the AP piece. And since I’m more or less obliged at this point to include a partisan angle in all posts, here again is the transcript of McCain’s “audacity of hopelessness” speech delivered yesterday in Denver. You might be hearing some of those points again this week pegging off of the AP article.