A steady four-point lead with fully one-third of precincts of reporting. Geraghty’s source says the early result is misrepresentative, but Michael Barone thinks she’s in the game and there’s some word of exit polls being “re-weighted.”

Has the Second Coming of the Messiah already been aborted? And if so, how many times are we going to hear the “15 percent lie” cited as an explanation tomorrow? Looks like America might be racist again.

Update: Obama’s already cut it to two in the past few minutes. Any loss within single digits will be spun by Hillary, not entirely unreasonably, as a momentum-stopper, so it’s a fairly good night for her already.

Update (Bryan): Hold the phone, she’s back up to a four-point lead. Comeback Kid’s Revenge in the making?

Update: Hmmm — Fox News is reporting that the college towns have yet to be counted.

Update: Spin or omen?

Update: The either/or excuse to go with the “15 percent lie”: Diebold!

Update: The secret to Hillary’s surprise? She recaptured the women’s vote that Obama won in Iowa, taking New Hampshire’s women by 13 points. Did the tears do the trick? As for independents, surprisingly, Obama’s lead is only seven points.

Update: Lowry offers an intriguing, staggeringly ironic theory. Did press hype for the Messiah suppress turnout among independents?