Thanks to the tariff situation, all the back-and-forth rumbling and saber-rattling between the US and other countries, especially China, there's a Great Wall of uncertainty hanging over trade right now.
As Ed wrote this morning, a rush to import goods in order to beat the tariff deadlines helped dump our GDP into negative territory for the first time in ages.
Progressive AWFLs are taking make-up cues from the Borg Queen and posting apocalyptic videos mourning the end of the country. They're wondering aloud if this 'current iteration' of the United States, of Americans, has it in them to 'survive the Great Depression, Part Two' because the ports are empty.
“Everyone in shipping says we’re heading into a crisis worse than COVID.”
— John Ʌ Konrad V (@johnkonrad) April 30, 2025
I work in shipping. I’m a ship captain. I never said that.
Almost every American ship officer I talk to is fired up we’re finally standing up to China.
It’s just the freight weenies who’ve never stepped… https://t.co/jroBPuMR2B
All this earnest Cassandra doomcasting as her cat creeps silently down from the window behind her.
Wow. Sounds bad.
Now, according to the executive director for the Port of Los Angeles, they're anticipating about a 35% drop in cargo from Asia next week, which is pretty substantial.
The Los Angeles port is expecting a 35% drop in cargo from Asia next week, Gene Seroka, the port's executive director, said in a CNBC interview on Tuesday."It's a precipitous drop in volume with a number of major American retailers stopping all shipments from China based on the tariffs," Seroka said.
That's entirely due to US retailers putting the brakes on their imports.
...Major American retailers have now stopped all shipments from China and that contributes to around 45% of traffic in Los Angeles, he said.
And you would expect a significant decrease, especially since, as the GDP figure this morning indicated, so many retailers are now well stocked thanks to front-loading orders in anticipation of the tariff fracas.
But that being said, are major American ports the frightening doomsday ghost towns that are being portrayed repeatedly online?
Take this authoritative, scary-sounding Xweet. And I'll excerpt just a smidge as most of it is an ill-mannered TDS rant.
🚨🚨PROBLEM🚨🚨
— BonkDaCarnivore (@BonkDaCarnivore) April 27, 2025
This is the Port of Seattle and the container yard. Note the image on the right. This is the 4th busiest port in the nation. Anyone who has spent time in Seattle can tell you that these docks are always PACKED and the Puget Sound is usually overrun with… pic.twitter.com/S8uJONWOSB
...There are presently ZERO cargo ships docked or en route. There are ZERO containers in the yard, and there are ZERO trucks to haul cargo.
Remember what I told all of you last November about stocking up on stuff and arbitraging it later once the shelves were emptied? Well...we're just about there...
It turns out that this fellow might not have all his boats in a row.
Not even a dinghy's worth, but it sure makes for a dramatic reading, doesn't it?
Number one is the fact that the Sea-Tac port is significantly smaller than he claims, ranking number 9 on the list. It's not remotely the 4th largest port.
The port also has an online website that disproves the lie about inbound shipping and cargo ships currently berthed in port. (Here's Tacoma's) Last but not least, they've shifted most of the cargo handling to the Tacoma port, so naturally, the Seattle docks he took pictures of would usually be pretty empty, tariffs or no.
Sal Mercogliano had read so many of these 'end of the world/ports are empty' postings that he went to work on a quick piece methodically debunking them.
My attempt at discussing if US Ports Are Empty on @tiktok_us pic.twitter.com/gedKU4d7AS
— Sal Mercogliano (WGOW Shipping) 🚢⚓🐪🚒🏴☠️ (@mercoglianos) April 30, 2025
Half of the battle is knowing where to look and understanding what you're looking at.
In this longer, ten-minute video, he also gives people the tools to do so themselves.
It's a terrific resource, as is Sal, the naval historian, maritime expert, and former West Point history instructor.
Interestingly enough, China is also late releasing its export and trade volume figures, something it has only been late with a few times before and skipped completely once.
China is yet to announce regular statistics on trade flows for last week, delaying a closely watched data set as firms cut back on exports to the US.
The weekly Ministry of Transport report on the volume of trade is usually released each Monday but remained absent from its website as of 11 a.m. local time on Wednesday. The data published last week showed that China’s ports processed a total of 6.3 million standard 20-foot containers, 10% more than in the same period last year, according to Bloomberg calculations.
The ministry didn’t respond to a faxed question asking why the data wasn’t released and when it planned to announce it. China has a five-day-long national holiday starting on Thursday, with markets, businesses and many government offices closed until next week.
The delay marks the first time this year that the data hasn’t been announced on Monday, according to the releases on the ministry’s website.
Inquiring minds want to know.
There's also an interesting dynamic developing the Chinese cannot be pleased with. Firms looking to purchase new container ships are reportedly starting to avoid buying Chinese-built vessels.
The containership sale and purchase market continues to be stable in terms of numbers of sales and vessel asset values, but there is potential for a two-tier market developing as some buyers shun China-built boxshipshttps://t.co/TRuZ4ZM8Nw
— Lloyd's List (@LloydsList) April 30, 2025
Trump's influence again hitting China where it hurts?
It could well be.
Right now, the Japanese are reaping the benefits of that aversion as sales of China-built ships 'collapse.'
Shipping companies have all-but stopped buying dry bulk commodity carriers that were built in China as the industry waits to see if President Trump will press ahead with historic port charges on vessels constructed in the Asian country.
Just four made-in-China bulkers — ships that ferry everything from coal to salt — were sold in the second-hand market in March, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd. data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s the fewest since at least 2022, and about a fifth of the monthly levels observed last year. Transactions involving Japanese and Korean carriers were little changed in the same period.
The slowdown in purchases is the latest sign that the US proposals are impacting markets, and hampering Chinese-owned vessels, even before they’re finalized and introduced. The Office of the US Trade Representative is seeking to bring in charges that could rack up above $1 million per port call, but the measures are opposed by swaths of the global shipping industry and the supply chains it serves.
“There is clearly stronger buying interest for Japanese-built ships compared to those built in China at the moment,” said Burak Cetinok, the London-based head of research at Arrow Shipping, a ship brokerage. “This is reflected in both transaction volumes and asset values. Most of the vessels that have changed hands in recent weeks are Japanese-built.”
China is in a hurt locker, which makes them very dangerous, but they are in a pickle.
This was China two weeks ago.
China fires back — for what is says is the last time — by lifting U.S. tariffs to 125% https://t.co/LW0iIwAj3T
— MarketWatch (@MarketWatch) April 11, 2025
China waived a 125% tariff on ethane imports from the U.S. on Tuesday, according to a report from Reuters.
China had initially imposed the tariff earlier this month as part of its retaliation against President Donald Trump's Liberation Day tariff campaign. China is responsible for purchasing roughly half of America's ethane exports each year, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.
Chinese companies that rely on U.S. ethane include Satellite Chemical, SP Chemicals, Sinopec, Sanjiang Fine Chemical and Wanhua Chemical Group, while the key U.S. exporters are Enterprise Products Partners and Energy Transfer.
Ethane joins a growing list of products that China has granted tariff exemptions for amid the ongoing trade war with Washington.
Yeah, they're still going to 'fight to the end' but they can sure get over it quickly when they have to and need cash. Or American stuff.
The bottom line is there's going to be a slump in the supply chain.
What remains to be seen is how long this tariff tiff drags out and, when it is resolved, is there a COVID-like backlog at the docks or does it rebuild gradually?
There should be such disruption whatever that answer winds up being, because, unlike COVID, US ports have ships in them and cargo coming off.
