We weren't supposed to be able to do this. Time-honored wisdom was that the GOP and its voters were stodgy stuck in the traditionalist mud types, incapable of rapid transformation of any sort, particularly when it came to the sacred ballot box and their ingrained habits and superstitions.
Election Day or bust was the GOP mantra. Everyone knew it, and Democrats exploited it for decades. Never more so than in the havey-cavey days of COVID election rule rejiggering and loosey-goosey mail-in statues.
Republicans faithfully followed the exhortations of their leaders to present themselves in person on the first Tuesday in November and would get their clocks cleaned in the wee hours of the night for all the good standing in line did them.
Democrats snickered all the way to their new offices, secure in the knowledge that Republicans and Election Day voting were the inseparable Siamese twins' trump card in their hand.
A funny thing happened on the way to smug.
Lara Trump and her Republican National Committee take-over. I am the first to admit I groaned when I heard about it, thinking, here we go, installing family members for busy work and vanity jobs. As if the RNC hadn't sucked bad enough already under Mittens' worthless niece.
Oh, my Lord, was I EVER wrong, and I grovel happily.
One of the first things she and her team did was reach out personally to the dynamic Scott Presler. Scott had been a one-man GOP voter registration machine and enthusiasm machine, completely ignored and marginalized at every turn by Ronna McDaniels sclerotic RNC. Once he had the national organization's blessing and backing, Pressler was off to the races. I swear to God, I think the guy's flipped the registration of at least half of Pennsylvania's blue counties to red all by himself.
It's been a phenomenal turnaround. All it took was support for people willing to work their tookusses off for the party. Imagine that?
Lara Trump's RNC has also completely revitalized the pathetic RNC Get Out the Vote (GOTV) effort, something Dems have always excelled at. And, much to Dem skeptical amusement, the RNC emphasized banking votes early - no more waiting for that first week of November to roll around. If you need an absentee ballot, go get it, fill it out, and get it turned in. If your state had early voting, get in line the second you had a chance.
The message was clear - BANK THOSE VOTES EARLY.
Democrats, confident in the resounding and repeated successes of their own battle-tested GOTV efforts, settled in to watch the GOP struggle to shake old habits and bump stubborn Republicans off their couches to the polls.
Remember yesterday when I said something's in the air?
Oh, yeah, it is.
And the first whiffs of a real "change" in the season are making Democrats look mighty green around the gills.
It might just be possible to teach an old pachyderm new tricks.
Who knew?
BREAKING: Strong GOP counties in MICHIGAN are now ahead of Democratic counties in mail-in ballot performance. https://t.co/agrmlYXmX2
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 25, 2024
In Nevada, the GOP has a lead in the early ballot count for the first time ever.
...GOP has a 24K ballot lead statewide, or 5 percent, and it is having a trickle-down effect on down-ballot races. Whether this is all about a frontloaded GOP vote and the Dems will begin to change the mix is a question we can't answer yet. (Clark is only 67 percent of the vote while it has 73 percent of the registration.)
Hare-core Democrats in Clark County, a constituency they take for granted, not showing up to vote is really starting to worry the Harry Reid wing of the blue machine out there.
The thing about nevada early voting is that dems are doing fine everywhere else and are holding up well in washoe (closer to the bottom) but are getting demolished in the county that casts over 70% of the votes. pic.twitter.com/62AExIUTn3
— john (@john12948833) October 25, 2024
Florida early voting has started, and, of course, we're red, but what's been astonishing is watching the blue southern counties flip to red, too.
🚨 NEW Florida early voting update - day 4
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 25, 2024
🔴 REP: 44.4% (+9.1) [1,475,904]
🔵 DEM: 35.3% [1,173,681]
That's, so far, R+10.4 from 2020's final early voting.
Today's flips:
🟥 Miami-Dade County
🟥 Hillsborough County (Tampa)
In-person early voting remains at R+27.… pic.twitter.com/AmGVpwaOuI
Virginia - it's an early GOP voting hotbed. Democrats there are running so far behind their 2020 numbers they are begging their voters to come out.
Virginia’s early voting numbers are getting a lot of attention in the political world. Something is happening here. The vibe shift is real.
— Glen Sturtevant (@GlenSturtevant) October 24, 2024
Stories and books will be written about it.
You may miss the chance to vote on Election Day. Something may come up. This is not the time… https://t.co/zKmhoYsAiM
The Trump campaign has noticed.
Guess who's going to VA?
Trump’s coming to Virginia.
— Lafayette Lee (@Partisan_O) October 25, 2024
VA is in play. https://t.co/WXobL304AH
Fani Willis's vindictive and very messy hissy fit didn't seem to have too much of an effect on Trump in Georgia. Early voters are primarily GOP there, too.
Georgia's GOP Chair says they're seeing ‘monster turnout’ in rural towns that have historically supported Trump in past elections https://t.co/Tj9MrJoJcR
— John Solomon (@jsolomonReports) October 25, 2024
"Moster" turnout.
Black voters, not so much.
The early voting numbers are a clear indicator that Harris is in serious trouble, but more importantly, it signals that if we all just vote early, we can totally turn this thing around and stop the insanity of how many days it’ll take to count the votes because I think we have… pic.twitter.com/VAf9OBRlN9
— Insurrection Barbie (@DefiyantlyFree) October 24, 2024
That's mucho ominous for blue hopes and dreams of holding the state if their GOTV remains deflated.
Even hurricane-ravaged North Carolina has the GOP up over Democrats.
#ncpol Early Voting 🗳️post 10-24 update🧵:
— Carter Nies (@crnies) October 25, 2024
About 279k early votes yesterday. 2.3M NCians have voted (30% of state)
EV trending ⬇️in daily votes cast from its early peaks above 300k
Solid day for R Voters. They expand their lead on D's
I see you Unas!
Spread: 34.3 R/33.6 D/31.5 U pic.twitter.com/bceZLbYURx
It's an astonishing turnout no matter where you look and outright leads in the most amazing places. Worse for Democrats, where Republicans are surging, their voters just aren't showing up or requesting ballots in anywhere near the numbers they need for the self-described "firewalls" they figure they have to build/bank to hold Trump off.
They're being ghosted.
All this Trumpian enthusiasm and Democrat lack confuses once-confident Democrats. It makes them have the #sadz and has them doing the cope.
Republican voters have so far cast more early ballots than Democrats in three of the key swing states, giving the party a potential ray of optimism with less than two weeks before Election Day.
More registered Republicans have voted in Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina than Democrats, according to publicly available state data. The party affiliation doesn't mean that voters have to vote for their party's candidate, so there's no way to definitively know whether the early voters supported the person that their party is aligned with.
But...but...but...how could they when everyone knows TRUMP'S A FASCIST!!!
Hilarious: ABC shows early voting data that essentially shows Trump is going to win Nevada.
— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) October 25, 2024
A seething George Stephanopoulos asks to see polling about how many voters view Trump as a fascist. 🤣 pic.twitter.com/PRxjWKQsxV
Stuff a sock in it, Stephanie.
We've got more work to do here.
It's really cheerful knowing that it might just all pay off when everyone's doing their part by VOTING.
We can do this.
FIGHT FIGHT FIGHT
BEEGE UPDATE: Alrighty, Trump has announced a rally in Virginia on Saturday, November 2:
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 25, 2024
AND one of the big Democratic PACs has canceled their ALL ad buys in Nevada. They're pulling up stakes and leaving town.
DCCC right now 👇 pic.twitter.com/XiJTkssVcq
— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) October 25, 2024
Ho, boy.
PEDAL TO THE METAL AND GET OUT THE VOTE!
But, damn - this feels good.
Join the conversation as a VIP Member