When last we saw our our protagonists, the putsches who’d seized power in Niger weren’t budging, black crow of Death Victoria Nuland had landed to demand an outcome satisfactory to her and threaten consequences and was summarily dismissed. ECOWAS (Economic Community of African States) had tried and failed to negotiate the release of former Nigerien president Bazoum, and couldn’t agree amongst themselves whether to take action of a military nature against the junta or let things be. They were also stymied by the fact that the Nigerians, who they look to for leadership as they have the most professional military of all the member states, didn’t want to play.
It didn’t help that the putschists banned ECOWAS negotiators from the country.
The coup leaders, the ECOWAS communique explains, were unavailable to take their calls.
So they had an impasse on their collective hands.
Until today. Looks like game on.
ECOWAS has granted approval for the commencement of a military operation in #Niger as soon as possible.
The decision comes after #ECOWAS leaders earlier today agreed to activate their standby force.
It remains to be seen which countries will ultimately be involved. https://t.co/xdvclXUNir
— War Mapper (@War_Mapper) August 10, 2023
They’re calling up their “stand by force” troops for what sounds like instituting a blockade of roadways and access points into and out of Niger, freezing assets, etc. But they left the door open for military intervention.
…D. Underscore the determination of the ECOWAS authority to keep all options on the table for the peaceful resolution of the crisis.
E. Enforce all measures in particular border closures and strict travel bans and assets freeze on all persons or groups of individuals whose actions hinder all peaceful efforts aimed at ensuring the smooth and complete restoration of constitutional order.
F. Warn member states who by their action directly or indirectly, hindered the peaceful resolution of the crisis in Niger about the consequences of their action before the community.
G. Call on the African Union to endorse all the decisions taken by the ECOWAS authority on the situation in Niger.
H. Further calls on all partner countries and institutions including the United Nations to support ECOWAS, in its effort to ensure a quick restoration of constitutional order, in conformity with its normative instruments.
I. Direct the President of the Commission to monitor the implementation of the sanctions.
J. Direct the Committee of the Chief of Defense staff to activate the ECOWAS standby force with all its elements immediately.
K. Order the deployment of the ECOWAS standby force to restore constitutional order in the Republic of Niger.
L. Underscore its continued commitment to the restoration of constitutional order through peaceful means.
BREAKING: ECOWAS has ordered its standby force to restore constitutional order in Niger Republic! ECOWAS’ Omar Alieu Touray made the declaration earlier, at the ECOWAS extraordinary meeting in Abuja, today.
— Nigeria Stories (@NigeriaStories) August 10, 2023
Importantly, Nigeria has thrown its support to the operation as has the Côte d’Ivoire.
The Nigerian angle is kind of interesting. I’m wondering if the spur for that were the calculations concerning what their country stood to lose if that nat gas pipeline to the Mediterranean doesn’t get built because of the conflict and coup in Niger. From what I’ve read on Twitter, Nigerians seem to be completely against the idea of their country’s intervention in this. Their president, Bolo Tinubu, is none too popular for making this announcement, and apparently is going to have to do some maneuvering to use his country’s troops for any operations. It seems the Nigerian legislature hasn’t authorized action against Niger – the senate passed a resolution against it – so he’s going to have to use executive action and some fancy word parsing to pull it off if he wants in.
Which could destabilize that country. Peachy.
The junta is pulling the thug “anyone moves and the ex-president gets it” card. I’m assuming that means they’re at least a little alarmed by developments.
BREAKING NEWS 🗞️
Niger’s 🇳🇪 Military junta have threatened to kill the deposed president Bazoum if ECOWAS neighboring countries intervene in the country militarily, Western officials say – AP
Eni pe 🧏🏾♂️ pic.twitter.com/T4yeJrbbsY
— Ainà Dipo 🇳🇬 (@dipoaina1) August 10, 2023
Their supporters in the streets lit off the Nigerian Embassy in Niamey today for good measure.
So many moving parts, and all this without talking about Burkino-Faso and the rest of the Red Belt of the Sahel getting involved…
…not to mention Algeria’s threats to aid the junta, and Wagner Group elements already on the ground throughout the Sahel.
What a mess.
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