On Monday, I wrote about the previous week’s coup d’état in the African country of Niger. The presidential guard had detained the country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, and was holding him along with his family in the presidential palace in the capital city of Niamey. Efforts were underway per the auspices of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) to either negotiate his return to office with the junta leaders, or they’d threatened military action, utilizing the forces of their members states. Conversely, neighboring countries more closely aligned with Russian interests have vowed to support the coup plotters.

Officers from Niger’s elite presidential guard last week detained the West African country’s elected president, Mohamed Bazoum, and declared themselves the nation’s new leaders. The coup came as a shock to U.S. and European governments that have worked closely with Bazoum and Niger’s military in the fight against Islamist militants in Africa’s Sahel region.

Some of Niger’s West African neighbors, mostly aligned with the U.S. and Europe, have threatened to use force to reinstate Bazoum. Others, allied with Russia, have said they would defend Niger’s new military junta.

Besides laying the hammer down economically and trade-wise with severe sanctions, ECOWAS gave the Nigerien turncoats a week to think it over, and we are approaching that deadline now.

…Those sanctions include freezing Niger’s assets at the regional central bank and cutting off electricity flows from Nigeria. Niger buys about 70% of its electricity from Nigeria…

In addition to regional penalties, the junta is paying an international price for the coup and continued intransigence.

World Bank suspends payments to Niger

The World Bank said they were "alarmed" by attempts to overthrow the democratically elected government in Niger.

“In response, the World Bank has suspended disbursements on all operations until further notice, with the exception of… pic.twitter.com/N6L9m0abxD

— Sprinter (@Sprinter99800) August 3, 2023

The U.S. is parsing the verbiage carefully, because apparently calling it a “coup” could restrict the military aid they send to Niger (where we do have a drone base). And (as with the recent botched operations in Sudan), the White House has not ordered an evacuation of U.S. personnel…

…The Biden administration hasn’t said whether the U.S. would provide logistics or other support for a potential Ecowas military intervention in Niger. “We support the efforts of Ecowas, including the pressure,” Blinken said Thursday. The State Department has ordered the evacuation of all nonessential personnel from the U.S. Embassy in Niamey, along with family members of American embassy staff.

In contrast to France, the U.S. hasn’t launched a full evacuation of American nationals from Niger. France, which sent several evacuation flights to Niger this week, said it helped about 40 U.S. citizens leave the country.

…but has partially evacuated some of the embassy staff.

US Announces Partial Embassy Evacuation As Biden Urges Ousted Niger President's Release https://t.co/RAf9SZLVgZ

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 3, 2023

U.S. military personnel are remaining…

Just in: @PentagonPresSec confirms there are no changes to the 1,100 US troops still stationed in Niger, and the U.S. military will not take part in the ordered evacuation of embassy personnel. pic.twitter.com/BbwHODC3YK

— Lara Seligman (@laraseligman) August 3, 2023

…at the extraordinarily important – and expensive – drone base we can no longer utilize at the moment.

The U.S. military is unable to fly drones from a base in Niger because the country’s airspace has been closed after a coup overthrew the government in late July, a U.S. official said.

Known as “Nigerien Air Base 201,” the installation cost $110 million to build and it features a 6,200-foot runway for MQ-9 Reapers as well as manned aircraft. The U.S. military began conducting drone flights from the base in November 2019.

…The base serves as a critical intelligence and surveillance hub for the U.S. military’s efforts to combat violent extremism in North and West Africa, said Jocelyn Trainer, an expert on sub-Saharan Africa with the Center for a New American Security think tank in Washington, D.C.

…“With a limited U.S. base presence in Africa – restricted to Djibouti and Niger – losing access to Base Aerienne 201[Niger Air Base 201] would be a detrimental blow to U.S. and African joint efforts to counter violent extremist groups connected to the Islamic State and Al-Qaeda operating in the area,” Trainer told Task & Purpose. “This setback coincides with France diminishing its presence in the region. A reduced U.S. and French presence could create space for Wagner, or other actors, to fill a security vacuum.”

…In the short term, not being able to use of Nigerien Air Base 201 will limit the U.S. military’s visibility over the Sahel region of Africa where ISIS and al-Qaida’s branch in West Africa known as Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, both have a strong presence, said Caleb Weiss, an expert on jihadism in Africa and the Middle East.

“It definitely affects their ability to support troops on the ground, whether that be Special Forces ODAs [Operational Detachment Alphas], or the French in Niger and certainly keeping tabs on JNIM and ISGS [the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara] throughout the entire Sahel,” said Weiss, a senior analyst with the Bridgeway Foundation, a nonprofit organization that seeks to end genocide.

As of this morning, it’s not looking good for a white flag, and quiet end to all the fuss. Coup leaders have also cut the feed of the the two French international channels.

In addition to sending yet another set of negotiating teams…

The delegation, led by General Abdulsalami Abubakar (Rtd), is tasked with engaging all stakeholders to find an amicable resolution. Another delegation led by Ambassador Babagana Kingibe will engage with the leaders of Libya and Algeria on the Niger crisis

— A. Ayofe (@abdullahayofel) August 3, 2023

…the ECOWAS hierarchy is making the rounds and getting assurances from their states that they will assist in an intervention, with the Nigerians – who are by far the most prepared and professional of the group – presumably leading the forces.

I thought I’d read somewhere Benin had said so too? Having said that, the two powers in the region are Nigeria and Senegal, and both of them are saying they will participate. While they had a successful intervention into Gambia in 2017, I think Niger will far, far more difficult.

— Global Affairs (@OurEarthAffairs) August 3, 2023

The coup leaders have assurances from the other “Red belt” rebel or dictatorship-held countries like Burkina-Faso that they will come to the aid of the junta if needed. And the head of the Wagner group is cheering them on. Russia would love to get its mitts on Niger.

‼️🇷🇺 Wagner leader, Prigozhin about the situation in Niger:

"The population of Niger has been driven into poverty for a long time. Colossal budgets were plundered at various levels. This is a liberation struggle for the independence of this country." pic.twitter.com/lOv4zBJOwy

— Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 (@Alex_Oloyede2) August 3, 2023

In an interesting twist, I’ve learned that the Nigerien government had signed on to an agreement for a massive natural gas pipeline Chevron is constructing. It’ll be running from Nigeria through Niger to Algeria, Morocco, then to – and through – the Mediterranean, bringing natural gas to West Africa, Italy, and all of Western Europe. That would be a game changer for Italy and the EU, while – well, HELLO – also putting yet another crimp in European dependence on Russian nat gas.

Everything happens for a reason, no?

Maybe this was the reason, and, while their uranium mines are nice, they’re nowhere near as valuable or strategic as control of this pipeline. Or making sure it never gets built.

Now, Algeria isn’t going to let anything happen to the pipeline one way or the other – that’s money in the bank for them. But as Russian sympathizers, they sure would be a lot happier if folks of the same mind controlled the starting terminal as opposed to the Western-friendly Bazoum government. No wonder they were so willing to pledge military aid to the junta right off the bat.

The junta, as the agreements for this $25B project were only signed in 2022, might want to scramble the whole deal.

No one would be happy with that except the Russians, which also explains the extraordinary response and pressure from powers within and outside of Africa to reinstate the elected president.

There are thousands in the streets of Niamey today celebrating their Independence Day, and waving Russian flags.

I don’t think they realize that one of those things is not like the other.