It’s official. Russia is bombing Syria. The first strike happened a few hours after the Russian parliament agreed with President Vladimir Putin (like they wouldn’t have anyway) on attacking ISIS. Kremlin Chief of Staff Sergey Ivanov told reporters the move was done because Syria asked for help.
“The military goal of the operation is strictly to provide air support for the [Syrian] government forces in their fight against Islamic State. All our partners and allies will be informed about our decision today through corresponding military channels. Specific military information will be provided as well, I believe.”
AFP later confirmed Syria’s request for help, which shouldn’t be surprising at all. Putin and Bashar al-Assad have been tight for a while, and it gives the Russian bear the chance to swing its military paws a bit. What’s interesting are the comments made by Russian Senator Konstatin Kosachev to Rossiya 24 about how long he expects the military to be involved in Syria.
“We would not risk getting stuck in a long conflict and threaten the lives of our troops. The operation is aerial only. Certainly, in coordination with the ground operation of the Syrian army.”
This sounds a lot like the words President Barack Obama used in 2013 to defend his decision to push for airstrikes on Assad.
“I will not put American boots on the ground in Syria. I will not pursue an open-ended action like Iraq or Afghanistan. I will not pursue a prolonged air campaign like Libya or Kosovo. This would be a targeted strike to achieve a clear objective: deterring the use of chemical weapons, and degrading Assad’s capabilities.”
So it’s 2013 all over again, but this time it’s the Russian remix! The Russian government will start reporting successful strikes against ISIS and probably rail against the West for not getting permission from Assad to do some of the strikes it’s already done against ISIS. But NATO certainly doesn’t think the Russians are just going to be doing air strikes. Supreme Allied Commander General Phillip Breedlove told CNN Russia might have something more nefarious planned.
“We see some very sophisticated air defenses going into those airfields. We see some very sophisticated air-to-air aircraft going into these airfields. I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require SA-15s or SA-22s (Russian missiles). I have not seen ISIL flying any airplanes that require sophisticated air-to-air capabilities. I’m looking at the capabilities and the capacities that are being created and I determine from that what might be their intent. These very sophisticated air defense capabilities are not about ISIL. They’re about something else.”
Maybe, maybe not. Would Russia be that daring to go after Lebanon, Israel, Jordan, Iraq, or Turkey? Are they going to sell them to Assad or to someone like Iran? It’s either that or the Russians are expected to get into some sort of battle with the Americans. There is an anonymously sourced Fox News piece claiming Russia told the U.S. to get out ASAP.
The official told Fox News that Russian diplomats sent an official demarche ordering U.S. planes out of Syria, adding that Russian fighter jets were now flying over Syrian territory. U.S. military sources told Fox News that U.S. planes would not comply with the Russian demand.
“There is nothing to indicate that we are changing operations over Syria,” a senior defense official said.
“We have had every indication in recent weeks that (the Russians) were going to do something given the build-up,” another defense official added.
This is just asking for a repeat of the 1964 T-39 shooting in East Germany, if no one is careful enough. That’s probably the last thing the Obama Administration wants, although with Putin no one really knows. There are going to be people who suggest the U.S. needs a strong leader, a big leader who can stand up to Putin and tell him to go put his Matryoshka doll up his yagoditsy (buttocks), but that’d probably be the worst thing to do. The U.S. doesn’t need a strong leader, it needs a smart, shrewd leader. The kind of leader who isn’t going to run off half-cocked when something doesn’t go his (or her) way. There are ways for the U.S. to maintain a level of strength and still be diplomatic. The administration just needs to be careful or else there’s going to be a shooting war and someone’s going to get killed that isn’t a member of ISIS.
It juts shows the complete chaos the Middle East is in, and some of the ridiculous strategies the Obama Administration has taken. It wants Assad gone, so it decides to help the rebels who happen to be backed by al-Qaeda. But the Administration is also fighting a war against ISIS, so it starts bombing parts of Iraq and Syria, thus helping out Iran. It’s a mess. The U.S. is better off not being involved at all in the Syrian Civil War, and letting others do what they want to do. There’s nothing wrong with letting bad guys kill bad guys.
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