Watching the ongoing Israeli dismemberment of the Iranian military, it's worth noting a key difference from the last time we watched this movie, 22 years ago: both the Israeli and American governments have strenuously disclaimed any intention toward "nationbuilding" should the Iranian regime surrender, be deposed, or otherwise go boom.
Israel simply can't; it's 1,700 miles away, has about 1/10 the population of Iran, and outside of intelligence and special forces has no ability to project military power outside its immediate vicinity.
And the US won't: the neo-Wilsonians have all left the GOP, and there is no hankering for another overseas quagmire in the name of exporting the American Way of Life.
Israel is operating to eliminate Iran's nuclear and terror threats. The US, to the extent that it is exerting force, seeks to quell the destabilizing effect Iran has had for nearly half a century now.
So if Iran needs to be rebuilt, there's a fervent hope someone within Iran is ready, willing and able to do it.
And potential successors and rebuilders are lining up - including the eldest son of the former Shah:
The Islamic Republic has come to its end and is collapsing. What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together we will turn the page of history. Now is the time to stand up; the time to reclaim Iran. May I be with you soon. pic.twitter.com/qrbnDmf8SX
— Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) June 17, 2025
He's making leaderish noises:
And he's saying leader-ish things:
“Iran will not descend into civil war or instability,” he said. “We are prepared for the first 100 days of the transitional period after the fall, and for the establishment of a national and democratic government by the Iranian people and for the Iranian people.”
Pahlavi also directed part of his message to military, police, and state workers, many of whom he said have contacted him in recent days.
“Do not stand against the Iranian people for the sake of a regime whose fall has begun and is inevitable,” he said. “By standing with the people, you can save your lives... and take part in building Iran’s future.”
And talking some rebellion-leader-style smack:
“The Islamic Republic has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing,” Pahlavi continued. Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali “Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground and has lost control of the situation,” he said.
The crown prince said that the fall of the regime was now “irreversible,” describing the moment as a historic turning point for the Iranian people.
While he was the crown prince while his father reigned, he's been making liberal democratic noises - certainly by Iranian standards over the past 70 years or so.
The question is this: while both the US and Israel have foresworn any "nation-building" in Iran, one hopes that there's been some thought paid to what comes next in a post-theocratic Iran, lest it become a failed state and terror sanctuary like neighboring Afghanistan and (to some extent) Pakistan.
Perhaps it's wishful thinking to hope that Israel has paid this some thought, and is signaling appropriately:
Asked whether regime change was part of Jerusalem’s plans for the future of the Islamic Republic, the Israeli leader said that it “could certainly be the result, because the Iran regime is very weak.”
“Eighty percent of the people would throw these theological thugs out,” he said of internal opposition to the regime. “They murder them, they oppress them—for 46 years they’ve yearned for freedom,” he added.
“The Persian people and the Jewish people have had an ancient friendship that goes back to the times of Cyrus the Great; that could happen again,” Netanyahu told Fox, while saying that “the decision to act, to rise up, at this time is the decision of the Iranian people.”
The extent to which Iran's people want a new government was made crystal clear by the late Michael Ledeen in an interview on my radio show 20 years ago. One might not blame them for being a little circumspect at the way the Obama administraiton left them out to dry in 2011.
At any rate, it's not a discussion I expected to be having in my lifetime.
